The more gold rises crazily, the more I worry about this matter. Recently, while reviewing the gold market trends, I discovered an interesting pattern: in every round of gold bull markets, there is always a world financial crisis that hits in the middle. This is something everyone really needs to be alert about.
Take the gold bull market from 1971 to 1980 for example; the 1974 world financial crisis directly interrupted it. The gold bull market that started in 2001 is even more obvious, as the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis coincided perfectly. This solidifies the pattern of bull markets being accompanied by crises.
What I currently find most puzzling is the direction of the US dollar. I fear it will repeat the type of crash-style devaluation seen in 1971. This risk is not nonexistent, and if it really happens, I can’t even imagine how crazy gold could rise.
Even if it doesn't reach the point of collapse, if Trump is re-elected, the dollar will likely continue to weaken in the long term. The current rise in gold is, in fact, partly due to the market digesting expectations of a devalued dollar in advance.
Once the dollar really starts to plummet, gold might actually follow a pattern of buying expectations and selling facts. After the expectations are played out, when the facts land, a correction may happen. However, I must clarify that gold may face short-term risks.
If a world financial crisis suddenly erupts, gold might first drop along with everything else. After all, in the early stages of a crisis, everyone needs to sell assets for cash. But looking at the previous two bull markets, it's clear that after the crisis, gold will still surge big time before reaching a true peak. So right now, I just want to remind everyone not to blindly chase high prices in gold; at the very least, one needs to understand the current gold price's position in the entire trend.
Moreover, if a financial crisis truly erupts, it’s not just gold that can be picked up cheaply; global assets will fall as well. There are plenty of cheap chips among stocks and commodities, so there’s no need to fixate solely on gold.
Ultimately, the word 'crisis' consists of two parts: danger and opportunity. What should be done now is actually to earn more money and save more in reality. Otherwise, when the opportunity comes, if you don't have capital, you can only watch others pick up bargains, which is really painful.
I can’t guarantee that this opportunity will definitely come, but if it does, I will certainly remind everyone. The only thing I can be sure of is that the crazier gold rises now, the closer the risk of a world financial crisis is. Based on the current trend, I feel that something big might happen within the next year: @阿二说币
