阿二说币

The market plunged directly. The Nasdaq futures fell 1.5% right after opening. Bitcoin was even harsher, dropping 6% within half an hour. The screen was filled with green, causing quite a few people in the group to panic.

Some rushed to send messages saying the black swan has arrived, frantically clicking to cut positions. It wasn't until after cutting that they realized this drop was not an accident; it was a clear signal of significant capital withdrawal.

First, let's look at the actions of the Treasury. The U.S. government has been in a shutdown for nearly 40 days, and the TGA account is nearly empty. Last week, over 160 billion in short-term government bonds was issued urgently. The market had to take on real money, and liquidity at the hundred-billion level was directly withdrawn. The stock and currency market was already supported by capital; a drop was inevitable.

Then there’s the Federal Reserve's cooling remarks. A statement about the policy direction has not yet been set, reducing the probability of a rate cut in December from 70% to below 45%. Short-term funds quickly reduced leverage overnight, and a pile of closing positions emerged. The already tight liquidity became even tighter, magnifying the downward trend.

Additionally, there’s hidden tightness between banks. The usage of the Federal Reserve’s emergency liquidity tools has reached a post-pandemic high. Banks are starting to tighten lending overnight. Although the market seems to be flush with cash, active funds are all trapped in government bonds and reverse repos, unable to flow into the stock and currency market.

This drop is not the start of a bear market. Once the government shutdown ends and the Federal Reserve provides warming signals, the withdrawn funds will definitely return. Panicking to cut losses now is just throwing chips at a low point. Holding cash and watching for the oversold leading coins is the rational approach.

The market is never short of volatility; what’s lacking is the calm to see the logic clearly. The previously mentioned position control and not blindly following the trend are most effective at times like this. Once the signal for capital inflow appears, opportunities will naturally arise. Earning in the crypto circle is fundamentally about understanding the fluctuations. @阿二说币
#美联储重启降息步伐
#ETH走势分析
#美SEC推动加密创新监管

Don't keep bottom-fishing 8000U lost down to 1600U the deadly trap of a bear market is more ruthless than being stuck

Last week at the café, I met Old Zhou. He looked pale and said 8000U was almost gone. I was surprised, he wasn't heavily stuck nor had he been liquidated. How could he lose so much? It turned out he was fixated on a certain altcoin that dropped from 2U to 1U. The more he looked, the more tempted he became. It had already been halved, surely it wouldn't drop further. Without consulting anyone, he went all in to bottom-fish.

But after buying, the coin price free-fell directly from 1U to 0.2U, and 8000U instantly shrank to 1600U. All his bottom-fishing confidence completely collapsed. Only then did Old Zhou realize that the scariest thing in a bear market is not the crash, but the illusion that you’ve hit the bottom. Newbies always make these mistakes, mistaking a halving for a bottom and a rebound for a reversal, thinking that after a drop it should rise. But the truth is, there is no real bottom in a bear market, only a continuously deepening pit.

Having been in the crypto space for these years, I've seen too many people shouting to bottom-fish and ending up in dire straits. Here are three survival rules for a bear market:

1. A halving is not a safe zone. Cases of dropping 50% and then dropping another 80% are everywhere. Judging the bottom by the drop is simply falling into the traps set by the manipulators.

2. A rebound is not a reversal signal. Bear market rebounds are mostly sugar-coated bombs. Just one big bullish candle and people shout reversal, but in the end, they will all be stuck.

3. After liquidating, don’t reach out randomly. Risk aversion is not about being timid, but about having top-notch strategies. True experts observe calmly in a bear market and act precisely in a bull market.

Now Old Zhou finally understands. The smartest operation in a bear market is never bottom-fishing, but staying in cash. If you don’t act blindly, the manipulators won’t have the chance to cut you. Staying calm and waiting is the only way to seize real opportunities. There are many traps in a bear market, less impulsiveness and more patience. Waiting for signals before getting in is the way to win.

If you want the content to resonate more, you could add common characteristics of certain altcoins (for example, “altcoins with no real projects, relying on hype”) or a heartfelt insight (like “bottom-fishing in a bear market isn’t about opportunities, it’s about the manipulators' scythe”). I can help you optimize it further for better dissemination.~@阿二说币
#ETH走势分析
#加密市场观察
#美联储重启降息步伐

币圈止损 别让硬扛耗光你的本金

最近碰到位散户朋友 ALLO 账户接连五单亏损却硬扛不止损 我直替他捏把汗 再这么下去 手里的本金都要耗光了 细聊下来发现 他的情况不是个例 多数散户都栽在同一个坑里 起初亏几个点总觉得反弹就回本 硬扛着不割 结果亏损一路扩大 直到账户爆仓才追悔莫及 等到本金亏光 再想翻身都没机会了

其实币圈亏大钱 从来不是行情的错 而是多数人逃不开三乱 心态乱 仓位乱 节奏乱 想扭亏为盈 就得先把这三点掰正

先稳心态 行情暴跌从不是末日 别被恐慌牵着走 先停手复盘 看清趋势再动 真正的老手 都懂得在别人慌不择路时找机会 而非盲目割肉
再控仓位

千万别想着一把梭哈翻本 越急着赌回来 越容易满盘皆输 把资金分层次布局 小仓位试错探路 确认趋势后再加大仓位 这才是保命的关键

最后跟节奏 不少人不是看不懂行情 而是节奏踏错 涨时犹豫不敢进 跌时侥幸不愿走 等行情走完才拍大腿 记住 该止盈就落袋 该止损就果断

币圈从不怕亏 怕的是亏完还不总结 想从亏损里走出来 靠的从不是运气 而是系统的策略加铁打的执行力 眼下行情正处于酝酿期 与其继续硬扛试错 不如换个思路跟着踩准节奏 让波动变成盈利机会

如果想强化实操性，还能补充具体止损比例（比如单笔止损 3%-5%）、分仓的具体档位，或者加一句戳中散户痛点的短句（比如 “硬扛是本金的慢性自杀”），我可以帮你再优化得更抓眼球～@阿二说币
#加密市场观察
#ETH走势分析
#巨鲸动向

From 2300U to 57,000 U, I have never relied on so-called insider information; I have persisted solely on two words: do not gamble.

Three years ago, when I entered the cryptocurrency circle, I was holding the remaining 2300U after clearing my credit card bill. In the first month, I often stared at the K-line until late at night, my palms sweaty. Around me were people shouting that with 30 times leverage, one could win easily. But I saw them blowing up their accounts every few days, with some losing their entire year-end bonuses.

I dared not follow the crowd, so I split the 2300U into five parts, each part being 460U, carefully selecting stable cryptocurrencies, buying low and selling high to take profits. In the first week, I earned 480U, and by the third week, my account had directly risen to 6700U. The speed surprised even me. It’s not that I had some secret; it was just that while others chased high, I withdrew, and when others cut losses, I bought.

From 6700U to 48,000 U, I still adhered to this clumsy method. When the market panicked and prices crashed, I replenished in batches. When the market surged and people shouted that a bull market had come, I quietly withdrew. I don’t listen to the group’s calls for trades and never chase new highs. Ultimately, it’s all about being steady and cautious.

After my account broke 50,000 U, I became even more cautious. I used scripts to place orders, only dealing with mainstream coins like BTC and ETH. Each time I opened a position, I set profit-taking and stop-loss limits, even if it meant earning just enough for a cup of milk tea. I would never hold onto a losing position. Some laugh at me for being timid, but they have never seen the tragedies of blown accounts. Not losing is always more important than making more.

After years of ups and downs, I have summarized three points: betting everything is a dead end; diversifying is the way to survive; do not gamble on one-sided market trends; calculate the winning rate; maintaining a stable mindset is essential for long-term profits. The cryptocurrency circle is never short of opportunities, but what’s lacking is the ability to control oneself.

Most people are trapped in a vicious cycle, not due to a lack of effort, but a lack of a guiding light. The market is often present, but opportunities do not wait for anyone—only by following the right people @阿二说币 can one walk out of the darkness.
#美联储重启降息步伐
#加密市场观察
#ETH走势分析
$BTC

Last week, I reviewed with my apprentice Xiao Lin. She suddenly had tears in her eyes. "Second Brother, I had leveraged my entire position before, with 400,000 in capital, but it was down to less than 40,000 in the end." I handed her a cup of warm water and joked, "Back then, I told you to use 80,000 to practice first, and you said the master was too cautious. When the wind comes, you have to dare to charge forward. Forget it.

Xiao Lin pounded the table in frustration. "At that time, I was so focused on missing out that it felt worse than being trapped. I couldn't listen to any advice." I sighed. "In the crypto world, one doesn't remember the pitfalls until they experience them personally. Even if I say it every day, you probably would have still wanted to go all in back then." She leaned in and asked, "Are there really big funds watching us retail investors? Every time I buy, it drops; the moment I cut losses, it rises. It's so strange."

I pointed to the K-line, the market that runs 24 hours non-stop. "Our little positions are like duckweed in a pond. We feel targeted, but in reality, beginners often take their own operations too seriously. So how do I turn things around?" She anxiously asked for ways to make money in the crypto world. "It's so simple that no one believes it," I said slowly. "The difficult part isn't finding methods; it's controlling your impulses."

I previously mentioned to you that a finance professor who engaged in quantitative trading lost money, while the aunt selling fruits in the community made gains through systematic investment. It's not a lack of knowledge, but rather the acceptance that lying down is better than blindly fidgeting. "What should I buy now?" she pressed. "Bitcoin has stabilized at a key position; buy in batches and set stop-losses to hold on." I said frankly. Xiao Lin was stunned. "It's that simple?"

"It's that simple," I retorted. "But can you manage not to watch the market? If you're down 30% on paper and still don't act?" She fell silent. In fact, beginners in the crypto world are all like this; they keep staring at hundred-fold altcoins, thinking that if they don't stay up late looking for information, they aren't working hard. It's like someone who has never touched a fishing rod thinking the skills are complicated. True experts understand that the hardest part is keeping a steady mindset in turbulent times.

After mentoring a few waves of apprentices, I finally understood that the true essence of the crypto world lies in basic discipline. Don't be greedy, don't be anxious, don't make random moves. Most people are trapped in a vicious cycle, not due to a lack of effort, but due to a lack of a guiding light. The market is always there, opportunities wait for no one; only by following the right people can you walk out of the darkness.@阿二说币
#加密市场观察
#美联储重启降息步伐
#ETH走势分析

The Core Logic of Turning 10,000 U into 150,000 U in the Crypto World

Last year, a crypto enthusiast faced a liquidation, and his account shrank from over 300,000 U to just 10,000 U. He was nearly on the brink of collapse. Who would have thought that five months later, he not only recovered his losses but also made a net profit of 50,000 U? The logic behind this is worth deep reflection for all crypto enthusiasts.

Reviewing his past trading records, the typical symptoms of a novice trader were fully exposed: chasing prices, emotional trading, and stubbornly holding onto losses. I advised him to stop trading for a week to review his strategies, and the results were astonishing. 90% of his losses stemmed from two main points: impulsive trading without restraint and treating stop-loss rules as mere decoration.

To address these issues, I helped him set two strict rules: never let a single trade lose more than 5%, and stop trading if daily losses reach 10%. He should focus only on the key support and resistance levels of BTC and ETH, setting stop-loss orders just outside these critical levels. If he achieves a profit of 5%, he should withdraw the principal and only use profits for further trading, which directly minimizes risk.

The final trick is even more crucial: allocate 2,000 U to invest in three small cryptocurrencies, but it must not be blind investment. It has to meet two conditions: on-chain data shows that major players have not exited, and the coin's supply on the exchange continues to decrease. This is a strong signal for potential upward movement.

In this way, 10,000 U can break even in five months and still gain 50,000 U. In fact, in the crypto world, 10,000 U is not a dire situation. Most people fall into the trap of desperately wanting to recover losses. Remember, living longer is always more important than earning quickly. Success in the crypto world is not about immediate aggression but about long-term stability. Understanding this point means you've already won half the battle.

Most people are trapped in a vicious cycle. It's not a lack of effort but a lack of guidance. Markets are always moving, and opportunities wait for no one. Only by following the right people can one escape the darkness@阿二说币
#加密市场观察
#ETH走势分析
#美联储重启降息步伐

In the cryptocurrency circle, I've seen too many people fall into the cycle of making and losing money over the years. In fact, most of it is not about poor skills, but rather not grasping the key of position control.

Not long ago, a fan who learned trading from me relied on the rolling position strategy I taught and turned 3000U into 9700U in three weeks, completely breaking free from the previous cycle of losses. This fan had been trading cryptocurrencies for two years, always thinking of making a fortune in one go, starting with heavy positions and never setting stop-loss orders. After several liquidations, he almost lost confidence.

When I broke down the rolling position strategy for him, I didn't mention complicated theories, just clarified the core logic: start with small positions to experiment, and when profits are made, roll them into the next order. Even if there’s a stop-loss, the loss is only from the previous profits, and the principal is never touched. For example, in the first order, he only invested 20% of his capital. Once the profit reached 2%, he locked in part of the profit and used the remaining profits to open a new order.

I also told him that before opening each order, he must go through three checks: assess market sentiment. If there are loud bullish voices everywhere, he should pause and observe the main capital's movements, waiting for clear signs of accumulation before entering the market. Check his own state; if he feels anxious or has a gambling mindset, he must not operate. He strictly followed these instructions, no longer over-leveraging and not blindly following signal groups, but steadily forging ahead.

Later, he told me that now, even if he makes 100U, he won’t rush to withdraw it. Instead, he uses this portion of profit to open new orders. Even if he incurs losses, it doesn’t affect the principal, and he feels particularly secure. This is what I often tell my students: ordinary people withdraw a little when they earn, thinking it’s safer to take money off the table, but those who can truly earn in the long term are the ones who roll their profits like bullets.

Rolling positions don’t have to be perfect every time. Winning six out of ten trades can steadily double the account. The cryptocurrency market never lacks luck; what it lacks is discipline. Watching him transform from the mindset of a retail investor eager to make quick money to a steady approach of protecting the principal before earning profits, I am even happier than he is. This is the way to survive longer in the market. I have organized the details of the rolling position strategy, specific methods of position control, and how to assess market sentiment into clear steps. The road is laid out; it just depends on whether you are willing to step in @阿二说币
#美联储重启降息步伐
#ETH走势分析
#加密市场观察

Trump hardens his stance against the Supreme Court! The controversy over tariff policies explodes, with tensions running high.

BlockBeats reports that on December 9, Trump "fired" on Truth Social, fiercely defending the tariff policy and directly stating: if the Supreme Court dares to issue an unfavorable ruling, it would be a "historic threat"!

What does Trump mean by this? In simple terms, he believes that the tariff policy has fully "buffed" national security, and the economic strength is directly raised to the "world's strongest" level; anyone who opposes it is an "evil force". Especially targeting the Supreme Court, he warned that if the ruling is unfavorable, the American economy could face catastrophic "defense breaches" at any moment, with tensions practically spilling off the screen.

This is not a joke. The tariff policy has been controversial for a long time, with supporters claiming it protects industries and preserves jobs, while opponents criticize it as a "trade war that collapses the economy".

Now Trump is directly putting the Supreme Court on the hot seat, while binding "national security" with rampant rhetoric, and labeling any unfavorable rulings as a "historic threat", ramping up the political game.

Netizens are also erupting: some shout, "Understanding King is at it again, just enjoy the show", while others are serious, asking, "Do tariffs actually help or harm America?", and there are concerns about whether the Supreme Court has the guts to stand firm.

Regardless of how things unfold, this "White House vs Supreme Court" drama is undoubtedly the hottest political issue recently, and we'll just have to wait and see how it develops!
#美联储重启降息步伐
#ETH走势分析
#巨鲸动向

The more gold rises crazily, the more I worry about this matter. Recently, while reviewing the gold market trends, I discovered an interesting pattern: in every round of gold bull markets, there is always a world financial crisis that hits in the middle. This is something everyone really needs to be alert about.

Take the gold bull market from 1971 to 1980 for example; the 1974 world financial crisis directly interrupted it. The gold bull market that started in 2001 is even more obvious, as the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis coincided perfectly. This solidifies the pattern of bull markets being accompanied by crises.

What I currently find most puzzling is the direction of the US dollar. I fear it will repeat the type of crash-style devaluation seen in 1971. This risk is not nonexistent, and if it really happens, I can’t even imagine how crazy gold could rise.

Even if it doesn't reach the point of collapse, if Trump is re-elected, the dollar will likely continue to weaken in the long term. The current rise in gold is, in fact, partly due to the market digesting expectations of a devalued dollar in advance.

Once the dollar really starts to plummet, gold might actually follow a pattern of buying expectations and selling facts. After the expectations are played out, when the facts land, a correction may happen. However, I must clarify that gold may face short-term risks.

If a world financial crisis suddenly erupts, gold might first drop along with everything else. After all, in the early stages of a crisis, everyone needs to sell assets for cash. But looking at the previous two bull markets, it's clear that after the crisis, gold will still surge big time before reaching a true peak. So right now, I just want to remind everyone not to blindly chase high prices in gold; at the very least, one needs to understand the current gold price's position in the entire trend.

Moreover, if a financial crisis truly erupts, it’s not just gold that can be picked up cheaply; global assets will fall as well. There are plenty of cheap chips among stocks and commodities, so there’s no need to fixate solely on gold.

Ultimately, the word 'crisis' consists of two parts: danger and opportunity. What should be done now is actually to earn more money and save more in reality. Otherwise, when the opportunity comes, if you don't have capital, you can only watch others pick up bargains, which is really painful.

I can’t guarantee that this opportunity will definitely come, but if it does, I will certainly remind everyone. The only thing I can be sure of is that the crazier gold rises now, the closer the risk of a world financial crisis is. Based on the current trend, I feel that something big might happen within the next year: @阿二说币
#巨鲸动向
#加密市场观察
#ETH走势分析

Understanding Bitcoin is actually this simple

There is a remote island where 100 villagers live. Some grow corn, some fish, and some pick coconuts. They usually rely on barter for their daily needs. You trade 2 fish for 3 corns; I trade 1 coconut for a sickle. But carrying things around for barter is too cumbersome. Everyone thought of keeping accounts; we keep a small ledger privately. For example, I owe you 5 fish, and you owe me 2 coconuts. But when the two of us compare our records, they don't match, and that's where the trouble starts.

Later, someone discovered that there were unique patterned stones at the island's volcano that no one could replicate. It was agreed that 1 stone equals 1 fish. Using stones as currency made trading easier. But as transactions increased, it became hard to keep track. So everyone pooled money together to build a trading station, hiring two people to manage the accounts and ensure they couldn't be changed. This was the earliest form of a bank.

But the good times didn't last. One time, the person managing the accounts acted out of self-interest and secretly recorded 10 extra stones under their name, using fake numbers to trade for others' corn. This caused panic among everyone; if money could be altered at will, then everything in hand would have been in vain. This is what is commonly referred to as inflation.

The key turning point came when a clever person proposed that instead of letting a few individuals manage the accounts, we should give each of the 100 people a blank ledger. From then on, anyone trading would have to call out their transaction for everyone to hear, and then everyone would record clearly in their ledgers that Zhang San traded 2 stones for Li Si's 5 fish.

In this way, everyone’s ledger would be identical. Even if someone lost their ledger, they could reconcile with the majority. To change a ledger, you would need to convince 51 people to agree to the change; only then would the ledger be valid. This is the distributed ledger of Bitcoin. Attempting to cheat with a 51% attack is nearly impossible.

But a new problem arose; it was too tedious to call out every transaction. Why should anyone help others keep their accounts? Later, the internet came along, and calling out became unnecessary. Everyone installed the same accounting software, and whenever someone made a transaction, the software automatically sent the message to everyone.

Mobile ledgers sync updates. As for the incentive to keep accounts, every time a transaction occurs, the payer receives a little extra reward. Whoever records the transaction accurately first must also match everyone else's ledger for the reward to be theirs.

This reward is Bitcoin, and the process of assisting in ledger-keeping is mining @阿二说币 #加密市场观察 #美联储重启降息步伐 #ETH走势分析

A while ago, I met a friend from the crypto circle for coffee. She is from Hunan, born in the 2000s, works in the Greater Bay Area, is stunning, and has solid values. The most impressive part is her trading skills; in five years, she went from a beginner to earning an eight-figure income annually. During our chat, she casually mentioned that making money isn't that complicated; just solidify the basics. I took note of her practical experience, filling up two pages with valuable insights, which I am sharing today with those who are destined to find it useful. Whether you are a newcomer just entering the circle or an experienced trader who has stumbled before, it's worth keeping and reviewing.
First, a warning: If you don't understand these basic concepts, don't enter the market. Many people rush into crypto, focusing solely on making money while overlooking the basic rules.
In the end, they either get their profits eaten away by transaction fees or stumble due to a lack of understanding of risks. Trading hours are 7 days a week, 24 hours a day, without a break. You can place orders after work, but fluctuations can happen at any time.
Beginners shouldn't expect to earn passive income; trading rules are flexible, but leverage is a double-edged sword. Without the ability to judge, it's easy to get liquidated. Don't underestimate transaction fees.
Frequent trading could eat up your profits. The T+0 model should not be manipulated arbitrarily. Beginners' mentalities can easily get chaotic with frequent trading. There are no limits on price fluctuations, which increases risk.
Beginners shouldn't force their way in. Before starting formal trading, you need to do four things: follow the news without blindly following trends, study moving averages, KDJ, and other basic indicators.
Make trading plans based on logic, not feelings. Control risks by setting stop-loss and take-profit levels; do not over-invest. Candlestick analysis is a must-learn course. You can understand it in three steps: first, grasp the basic logic. In the crypto world, red means a drop while green means a rise. A single candlestick consists of an upper shadow, body, and lower shadow. The longer the body, the stronger the momentum for price movement; the longer the shadow, the greater the resistance in the opposite direction.
There's no need to memorize 14 different patterns. Focus on the meanings of the headless and footless large bullish and bearish candlesticks, long upper and lower shadows, and the cross star. A V-shaped reversal is a signal to pick up money, but wait for the trend to be confirmed before entering.
Position management is more important than technique. Choose among eight methods of increasing positions to minimize losses and maximize gains, such as the olive-shaped pyramid, inverted pyramid, and equal probability trading methods.
Beginners should start with simple strategies. Increasing positions should be accompanied by stop-loss and take-profit measures. If you don’t have much capital, don’t bet on a single strategy; diversifying risks is more important.
Lastly, here are ten practical tips: with a capital of 200,000, you can catch the main upward wave once a year. Don’t earn money outside of your understanding. Start with a simulated account. Major good news should be sold on the next day’s high. Reduce positions in advance during holidays. Keep cash for medium to long-term rolling operations.
For short-term trading, only deal with active coins and avoid bottom-fishing during slow declines. If you buy incorrectly, stop-loss immediately. For short-term trading, look at 15-minute candlestick charts. Master 1 to 2 technical indicators like KDJ, and that's enough. The crypto world is not about luck; find the right methods and have someone guide you. Even in the toughest situations, you can turn the tables. @阿二说币
#加密市场观察
#ETH走势分析
#美联储重启降息步伐

The cryptocurrency world has always been rife with chaos and various scams. Ironically, in this circle filled with lies, scammers often plot against each other, ultimately ending up as victims themselves. Today, let's talk about several real cases of black eating black.

First, let's discuss the encounters of money launderers. Some lawbreakers specifically use illegally obtained dirty money to purchase
USDT, causing many sellers to have their bank cards frozen, suffering greatly. However, these money launderers are not entirely at ease either. A group of people figured out their tricks and

pretended to be ordinary buyers to contact for transactions. Just when the money launderers happily transferred their digital currency, the other party instantly disappeared without paying a cent. Due to the illegal origins of the money launderers' funds, they dare not report to the police and can only watch helplessly as their coins go to waste.

Next, let’s look at a more dramatic case. There was a hacker who stole assets worth over 600 million dollars from the PolyNetwork platform. After the theft, he arrogantly left a message mocking the platform's security flaws. However, he did not expect that the exchanges in the entire industry would quickly join forces to block all the addresses he used for receiving payments. Even the stolen USDT was frozen, and he could not spend a single cent. The desperate hacker ultimately had no choice but to obediently return the money.

There are also some small exchanges that have been planning to scam money from the very beginning, intending to run away with user funds while falsely claiming that their website was hacked. But just when they were ready to divide the spoils, internal members quarreled over unequal distribution. Some felt they received too little and, in a fit of anger, reported directly to the police. As a result, the entire scam team was caught by the police, and all illegal gains were confiscated. It was really infighting that led them to prison.

Finally, let’s talk about those young people selling bank cards. They sold their bank cards to money laundering gangs to make quick money, thinking it would be easy to profit. However, after the money laundering gang withdrew all the money using these bank cards, they directly went offline, and the promised rewards were not given even a cent. These young people not only failed to make money but also faced legal risks for aiding money laundering, effectively losing both the woman and the battle.

Don’t think you can take advantage; there are never any winners in the black eating black of the cryptocurrency world. Playing clever tricks and crossing the legal red line often results in a painful price to pay. @阿二说币
#美联储重启降息步伐
#ETH走势分析
#加密市场观察

Taking her into the cryptocurrency world, watching the account rise from 13,000 U to 850,000 U, not relying on luck and certainly not guessing blindly, but relying entirely on a set of rolling warehouse methods to steadily progress.

In fact, she was initially like many beginners, panicking to close positions after making a couple of points, and unwilling to cut losses even when losing a bit. It's not that she lacked judgment; she just hadn't grasped the rhythm of the market. I broke down the core method of rolling warehouses into three points to teach her, and only by following these could she stabilize the situation.

The first is to only follow trends and not touch fluctuations. Previously, she was eager to try in a fluctuating market, thinking that small volatility meant low risk. I directly stopped her; trades without volume or direction are all traps. Engaging in fluctuations with rolling warehouses is purely sending money into risk. Later, before BTC broke out, we focused on signals of major players increasing volume and price breakthroughs, placing orders in advance. When the market surged, her position doubled, and she truly understood the significance of waiting for the trend to start.

The second is to increase positions based on floating profits, never impulsively. At first, she always thought about adding more to earn quickly. I made her hold back her eagerness; she only placed 5% for the first order and slowly added after achieving floating profits. Only when floating profits exceeded 50% did she dare to push forward. Once, when she was losing a bit and wanted to add to her position, I held her mouse down. Adding to a losing position is just filling a hole; rolling warehouses should amplify advantages in profits, not stubbornly bear losses. Later, she strictly followed this and never stumbled due to impulsive position increases again.

The third is to be flexible with profit-taking; don’t stubbornly hold onto one point. I taught her a three-tier profit-taking method: first lock in half of the profits to protect the principal, then leave part of the position to follow the market, and finally let the remaining profits run. Previously, when she made some profits, she wanted to close all positions, thinking that securing profits was stable. Once in the market, I advised her not to close everything and to leave 30% of the position. As a result, it later rose by 30%, and she realized that not closing everything isn’t greed, but understanding how to give profits room to grow.

From 13,000 to 850,000, she never went all in even once, nor did she hold any false hopes. The cryptocurrency world lacks opportunities; what it lacks are those who can accurately grasp the rhythm.

The market is still moving, and it’s a great time to practice rolling warehouses. Making money is never about rushing out; it’s about accumulating step by step following a method.

If you want to understand the specific operation of the three-tier profit-taking method more clearly, follow me at @阿二说币 . I have already organized a practical guide for rolling warehouse profit-taking.
#ETH走势分析
#加密市场观察
#美联储重启降息步伐

Last year, a brother of mine came to me with 2700U and said he wanted to make back what he had lost before. I didn't discuss moving averages or MACD, those complicated things.

I just gave him three pieces of advice from my own experience. He followed it for three months, and his account shot up to 50,000 U without a single liquidation. How much you can comprehend from these three life-saving rules depends on how much respect you have for the market.

First, divide your money into three parts: protect your life first, then seek profit. I had him split the 2700U into three transactions of 900U each. Not a single cent can be moved. This is a lesson I learned after my entire account was liquidated, losing sleep over it at midnight. The first part is dedicated to short-term trading, opening a maximum of two positions per day.

After that, just close the software; staring at it for another second can lead to greed. The second part waits for trends. If the weekly chart hasn't shown a bullish pattern or broken critical levels with volume, just patiently hold on. Churning in a volatile market is just giving away money. The third part is emergency funds. If the market suddenly dips and you are about to be liquidated, add to your position; at least you can stay in the market. Liquidation is mostly just cutting off a finger; losing all the capital is like losing your head. Without capital, there are no opportunities.

Second, only take a bite of the trend, while the rest should be cautious. I had too many setbacks in the volatile market in my early years. Out of ten trades, nine times I got cut badly. Later, I only recognized three entry signals. If the daily moving averages don’t show a bullish arrangement, I resolutely stay out. Don’t always be afraid of missing opportunities.

When the market breaks out with volume and the daily close stabilizes, then I dare to enter with a small position. Once profits reach 30% of the capital, take out half of the profits and set a 10% trailing stop. Only what you take home is truly yours; don’t think about capturing the entire market move.

Third, lock your emotions. Mechanical execution is what lasts. You must write a trading plan before entering, stick to it, and set a stop loss at 3%. When it hits the point, automatically close the position. Don’t always think about waiting a bit longer. When profits reach 10%, pull the stop loss up to the cost price.

What comes after is the market's bonus. Every night at 12 o'clock, I close my computer on time. No matter how tempting the K-line is, I don’t stare at it. If I really can’t sleep, I uninstall the app. The longer you watch the market, the easier it is for your emotions to get chaotic. When emotions get chaotic, you make wrong judgments.

The market is there every day. If you lose your capital, you lose everything. First, implement these three rules, then think about those wave indicators. That’s all for today. If you like it, just leave a follow: @阿二说币
#ETH走势分析
#加密市场观察
#美联储重启降息步伐

JPMorgan bought 100 million ETH related stocks

Yesterday, I came across the news about its holdings in Bitmine. My first reaction was not that a large institution had entered the market again, but that Bitmine's transformation was perfectly timed.

From a Bitcoin miner to an Ethereum reserve company, holding 3.24 million ETH and surprisingly being noticed by Wall Street giants. This signal is much more substantial than just a few points of increase.

Having played in the crypto space for eight years, I understand the nature of large institutions very well. They never blindly buy concept stocks, especially like JPMorgan, which used to be very cautious about the crypto space. Now they are willing to hold $102 million, with the core being Bitmine's hard asset ETH reserves.

This is different from the logic of institutions chasing Bitcoin ETFs back in the day. Now, the focus is on Ethereum reserve targets, indicating that the long-term value of ETH is recognized even by traditional finance circles.

Sharing two practical insights for ordinary people; don't just look at the news excitement.

First, when looking at transformation targets, focus on core assets like Bitmine transitioning to ETH reserves. We need to consider whether the ETH they hold is a true reserve or if it has been pledged or misused.

Second, check institutional holdings more than once.

The data from JPMorgan this time is from September 30. We can go to the SEC's EDGAR system, search for Bitmine or JPMorgan, and see if there are any subsequent increases in holdings.

If institutions keep buying as the price drops, that’s a real sign of confidence. If they buy and then sell immediately, it's mostly short-term arbitrage.

I used to think miners were just in a cycle of mining and selling coins. Now with Bitmine transitioning to reserves and large institutions entering, it suddenly feels like the industry is really changing.

It's not about speculating on concepts anymore, but about holding hard assets to earn long-term money. Ordinary people don’t need to follow suit and buy stocks, but they must understand this trend: ETH is no longer just a trading target; even traditional institutions recognize its reserve value now.

After eight years in the crypto space, I've seen too many people chasing trends fail. In contrast, those who focus on the logic of large institutions and hard assets always manage to withstand market fluctuations. There’s no need to rush into following trends; first learn to identify the signals hidden in the news, which is much more reliable than mindlessly watching K-lines.

After all, true opportunities never emerge from price increases; they are voted on by large funds using real money. Being patient to wait will always help you catch your own wave. @阿二说币
#ETH走势分析
#加密市场观察
#美联储重启降息步伐

The Truth Behind the Fed's Hawkish Rate Cuts: A Sobering Murder Targeting Retail Investors. Are You Still Dreaming?

Dear friends, I am Er Ge. When I saw this news, I felt a chill all over. Bank of New York Mellon says the Fed is going for hawkish rate cuts, and the dot plot will reveal internal divisions. This is not a policy adjustment; the Fed is laying traps in the crypto market, waiting for us retail investors to step on them.

You think rate cuts are beneficial? Too naive. Hawkish rate cuts mean the Fed is cutting rates to put out fires while holding a megaphone saying that future easing will depend on the 2026 data. This means the crypto market will have to live under the shadow of the Fed for the next two years.

Every fluctuation could be magnified into a tsunami. The division in the dot plot is not an accident; it’s a smokescreen deliberately leaked by the Fed, making the internal market struggles public. When retail investors panic, institutions harvest easily. With a change in leadership, the new chairman might make a 180-degree policy turn. The market will have to reprice. Isn’t this forcing retail investors to run naked in the fog?

Relating to the crypto market, it directly explodes. Bitcoin, Ethereum, all coins have become hostages of the Fed's policies. Rate cuts should release liquidity, but the hawkish stance feels like putting handcuffs on the market. Money is coming, but with shackles. The crypto market has always been a policy barometer. After this wave of operations,

uncertainty is not increasing; it’s skyrocketing. But don’t be afraid, this is the opportunity. When everyone is fixated on panic, the smart ones are already laying the groundwork for the next bull market.

What should retail investors do? Listen carefully, this is not to advise you to run away, but to awaken you. First, position control is crucial. Don’t recklessly go all in; save some bullets. When market panic reaches its peak, you become the hunter. Second, closely monitor economic data. 2026 sounds far,

but the Fed is already laying plans with every move. If you don’t learn, you will get cut. Third, stay rational. The more crazy the market gets, the calmer you must be. There is no savior in the crypto world; only you can save yourself.

Hawkish rate cuts are not the end, but the opening of a new era. The crypto market needs rebellion, supported by wisdom. The market always breeds opportunities in fear, but only the awakened can dig out gold from the ruins. If you don’t know how to step on points, you can follow Er Ge at @阿二说币 .

Er Ge will provide real-time analysis in the village and give the best entry points.
#美联储重启降息步伐
#加密市场观察
#ETH走势分析

The crash caused severe losses; it turns out three blood draw pumps are causing trouble. Retail investors, don't panic and cut your losses.

The moment I opened the market software, I was dumbfounded. The Nasdaq and Bitcoin plummeted simultaneously, and my holdings were all in the red. I felt a heaviness in my chest, almost unable to breathe.

I originally thought it was a black swan attack, but later realized this was no accident. Clearly, three capital harvesting machines started operating simultaneously, draining the market's liquidity completely.

The first machine is the Treasury's money-grabbing operation. $163 billion in government bonds were issued in a pile. This is not financing; it's simply the national team going hard to seize. As the risk-free interest rate rises, hot money rushes to buy government bonds. Who would still want to stay in the crypto or stock markets, these risky assets? My positions were directly pinned down and beaten, falling without any mood to react.

The second machine is even fiercer: the Fed's expectation massacre. Previously, everyone hoped for interest rate cuts, but with one statement of 'no rush to cut rates,' the script was flipped. It's simply a public slap in the face. Leveraged funds were scared into overnight liquidations; the avalanche of liquidation orders crashed the market. This is not a normal correction; it's clearly a capital stampede escaping. The coins in hand plummeted, and there were no buyers to sell to.

The third machine is the banks' cash crunch crisis. Overnight interest rates soared to absurd levels. Banks themselves are scrambling for cash to save themselves; how could there be any surplus flowing into the crypto market?

I stared at my account, struggling all morning. Cutting losses for fear of missing a rebound, and not cutting for fear of further losses. This dilemma is too tormenting. Later, I finally realized that what I should do now is hold onto cash tightly. Never play the philanthropist at the floor price. Missing out on the rebound is fine; cutting at the lowest point is truly a loss.

Next, keep a close eye on three signals: banks easing lending, government bond yields falling, and the Fed softening its tone. As for bottom fishing, focus on BTC, ETH, and BNB, these leaders. They have strong resilience and rebound quickly. Once the signals arrive, entering the market in batches is definitely the right move.

In fact, a crash is not scary; what's scary is panicking and making hasty moves. The market has always washed out the weak hands during crashes and rewarded those who are patient during rallies.

Now everyone is panicking and cutting losses. If you can keep your composure, once the storm passes, what you pick up will not only be chips but the next big opportunity to make money. @阿二说币
#美联储重启降息步伐
#ETH走势分析
#加密市场观察

The Altcoin Season of 2025 is more surprising than instant noodles

Just as I threw the noodle cake into the pot, people in the circle were shouting for a 100 times launch. The altcoin I was watching went from a 5% increase to a drop into the red in the blink of an eye. Looking at the depth chart, it was as thin as a piece of paper, with 50,000 U sell orders coming down.

The price directly retraced to the low of 2021. Don't blame the liquidity for running away; the money hasn't actually left, it's just gotten smarter. Friends around me who play with coins have already moved their funds to the BTC and SOL investment pools, securing a steady 8% annualized return.

Who still wants to take risks with altcoins? Even if there’s occasional liquidity, we first check the on-chain data. As soon as the team unlocks the tokens, they immediately turn around and leave. Nobody wants to be the bag holder.

Why can't altcoins rise? I understood last month after stepping into the trap. One reason is that there is no innovation, just rehashing old ideas. Web3 ZK AI + changing terms to shout. Opening the project’s on-chain page, aside from the official cross-chain bots moving, there are hardly any real transactions. To put it bluntly, it relies on concepts to raise money. The second reason is that the valuation has long been overextended.

In 2021, VCs discounted the expectations for the next ten years. Retail investors were left to pick up the pieces as soon as they came online. For example, during the flash crash in October,

a token that claimed to disrupt Amazon dropped 88% in three days, while a small project that actually issued on-chain invoices and bought back with real cash only dropped 8%. The market finally recognized that cash flow is worth more than PPT animations.

Retail investors wanting to survive in altcoins must change their mindset. Don’t treat it like a lottery; look at it as a project instead. Wait.

When BTC is in sideways oscillation, funds will look for small opportunities. At this time, check the trading volume; if it expands by 20% for three consecutive days, then enter. Don’t hold positions for more than five working days. Treating short-term trades as long-term holdings is a path to self-destruction.

Open Dune to see the daily revenue of protocols. Compare the fully diluted valuation (FDV). Only those with revenue multiplied by 30 being less than FDV should be added to the watchlist; the rest are blacklisted. Today's altcoins

are no longer a time of universal celebration, but rather a battlefield of niche selection. In the next round of liquidity easing, the order must not be wrong: first look at on-chain data, then calculate valuations, and finally check the popularity. One wrong step could lead to total losses.

On the path of compound interest, one person walks fast, but a group walks far. If you are also looking for a steadier rhythm, feel free to connect: @阿二说币
#ETH走势分析
#美联储重启降息步伐
#加密市场观察

The cryptocurrency market has changed direction early; altcoins are quietly undergoing a major liquidation, and most people are still in the dark.

By this time next year, the currently hyped potential coins and hundredfold coins will likely have completely disappeared; it's not just a drop of half, but a direct evaporation from the market.

There are 880 days until the next Bitcoin halving, which just so happens to fall at the cycle's ice point. Looking back at history, this time in 2013, 2017, and 2021 was the darkest bottom of the bear market, but this time is worse. Mainstream coins have ETFs supporting them, while no one dares to say where the bottom is for altcoins.

The market power has long changed hands. Previously, project parties had the final say, but now platforms directly control primary and secondary trading. Project parties have become workers without funds or the willingness to stabilize coin prices. Recently, many altcoin project parties are selling tokens at low prices, clearing stocks at 40% and 60% off. Even insiders are dumping; what future can these coins have?

Market-making institutions are quietly accumulating chips while hedging short positions with contracts. The altcoin sector is undergoing systematic liquidation. The so-called rebound is merely an opportunity for them to withdraw. In the future, only two types of coins will survive: mainstream coins supported by ETFs and ecological coins deeply bound to platforms.

Stop fantasizing about long-term gains from altcoins; that's an old tale. Now is a brutal game of financial competition. Coins without resources or backgrounds cannot survive. November and December might see some short-squeeze market conditions.

But the altcoins thereafter will make you taste the harshness of reality. If you want to walk steadily, focus more on mainstream coins and platform ecological coins. Don't blindly follow the altcoin trend. Those who can survive and profit have always been the ones who clearly see the direction before reaching out.@阿二说币
#美联储重启降息步伐
#ETH走势分析
#加密市场观察

The bear market has begun. No one dares to refute this now, but it has only fallen for a month, and it's so harsh that I am directly confused. If the bear market really lasts for a year, does that mean it will eventually go to zero?

What makes me more alert is the long-short ratio, which is terrifyingly high. This indicates that a bunch of people are still busy bottom-fishing. Honestly, I would rather wait until the trend is completely clear before taking action than become a bag holder.

I firmly hold a bearish view; it is definitely not a random guess. First, the four-year cycle has completely ended, with daily, weekly, and monthly lines all broken. The trend is weak beyond measure; this is the hardest signal. Secondly, more contradictorily, even though the market is in such a panic, the funding rate of BTC and ETH perpetual contracts is still positive, and the bulls unexpectedly still dominate. This bubble has not been fully squeezed out.

Speaking of BTC, when it broke below $100,000, the rebound was as weak as if it hadn't eaten. It still hasn't climbed back above $100,000. This momentum does not look like a reversal at all. There’s also a big thunder; the US may attack Venezuela, and there might be major powers involved behind the scenes. If a war really breaks out, who would dare to enter the high-risk market? Big funds are all watching; why should we small retail investors rush in?

What bothers me the most is social media; there are still a bunch of people shouting for bottom-fishing opportunities. Historically, how many times has extreme panic led to small rebounds before falling back into the abyss? The reversal signal in my heart is very clear. No one is shouting to bottom-fish anymore. The volume of ETH perpetual contracts is lower than that of BTC, and with the mainstream spot trading volume continuously bottoming out, that's when it would be worth betting on a small rebound.

At this position, if you really want to enter the market, you can only try small positions in spot trading. The stop-loss line must be set firmly. In case of extreme declines, those coin and stock companies may be forced to liquidate, and in a stampede, you simply cannot escape. There's a particularly heart-wrenching detail: after October 11, liquidity has been decreasing. New entrants are all withdrawing; funds are only flowing out, not in. There’s no hope for a short-term recovery.

Trading is too exhausting now. I want to bottom-fish but fear being trapped; I want to short but fear missing out. But the more chaotic it gets, the more discipline you must maintain. Don’t let FOMO emotions lead you astray. Until the trend reverses, waiting is the best strategy. As long as those voices shouting for bottom-fishing haven't disappeared, we can just safely be bystanders. Preserving capital is more important than anything else. @阿二说币
#ETH走势分析
#加密市场观察
#美联储重启降息步伐