The 2025 U.S. stock market frenzy comes to an end, but Powell's warning has sounded the alarm: "Stock prices are significantly overvalued." This statement may become a turning point in 2026.
The Shiller P/E ratio has surged to 40.74, nearing the peak of the dot-com bubble.
History does not lie—on the previous five occasions of similar high levels, all ended in crashes, with declines starting at 20% and the deepest drop nearing 90%. Although the Federal Reserve does not directly control the stock market, high valuations are influencing policy direction. The market is still in a frenzy, yet it forgets that the end of a bubble always comes with lessons.
In the past 150 years, the Shiller P/E ratio has exceeded 30 only six times, with the previous five ending in bear markets.
Although bull markets can last an average of nearly three years, much longer than bear markets, the panic during a crash is enough to wipe out the vast majority of investors.
In 2026, will the storm come?
This time, can you survive?
Let's discuss in the comments: Do you believe this time will be different? @阿二说币
