Solana's stock price is entering a critical phase, with its movement tightening below the $140 mark, a level that has repeatedly hindered its rebound attempts. After months of sustained selling pressure and increased activity from large traders, the market is currently focused on whether Solana can maintain its recent gains or will fall back to a lower support area.
Meanwhile, analysts, on-chain trackers, and market participants are also assessing the broader impact of KOL (Key Opinion Leader) predictions, many of which have significantly diverged from Solana's actual price movements over the past two months.
Solana's price stagnates below key resistance levels
SOL is currently trading just below $138, having slightly rebounded from a low of $128. Technical indicators show that Solana's price is hovering below the dense moving averages, with the 20-day moving average (at $138) repeatedly hindering its upward breakout.
The intraday trend is still in a correction phase, with rebounds often fading before gaining further support. Sustaining a position above $140 remains a key resistance level. After breaking this resistance, the short-term target may be close to $142, and could further rise to the $150 level. However, if this level cannot be maintained, it may once again retrace to around $132, or even further down to the $128 region.
Short-term indicators are sending mixed signals. The hourly RSI remains above 50, while the MACD is slightly bullish, indicating that market momentum exists but lacks strength.
Market capitalization declines, KOL predictions are being questioned
Solana's market capitalization has dropped by about 40.5% over the past two months, which is in stark contrast to some bullish claims at the beginning of this quarter. Data from Santiment shows that traders had predicted that the price of SOL would reach historical highs in the near term, but the reality is that the price of SOL has continued to decline.
This divergence has led analysts to rely more on tools like KOL_Tracker, which can rank the performance of influencers and help identify when certain investment recommendations may act as counter-signals.
The gap between predictions and actual performance adds extra volatility to Solana's trend, as traders combine social sentiment data with traditional indicators to assess market direction. With network activity and capital flows still sluggish, traders are also more cautious about such predictions.
Liquidity changes highlight the influence of whales
On-chain activity shows that large holders have made significant moves, including a whale that recently transferred 100,000 SOL to Binance, which is part of a broader trend where over 600,000 SOL have been moved to exchanges since April.
Although not sufficient to drive market trends on its own, this ongoing sell-off reinforces resistance levels and limits rebound momentum. The address still holds over 700,000 SOL, which means that if Solana's price approaches previously favored sell-off levels, more liquidity could flow into the market.
As Solana's price fluctuates within a narrow range, market participants are still focused on whether buyers can build support above $138 to $140. Before this, resistance remains strong, market sentiment remains cautious, and future trends depend on technical confirmations and the overall direction of the cryptocurrency market.
