佩佩是佩佩

Breaking: An overlooked historical pattern in Bitcoin.

During bear markets, there has never been a consecutive three months of green candles. This has never occurred in Bitcoin's entire history.

February: Green candles
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March: Green candles
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April: Green candles
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Data predicts May will close in the green. Despite all the bullish news sounding contrary.

When data clashes with narrative, data often comes out on top.

A violent pump of 24%?

Those who have already stacked SUI are really in luck.

A publicly traded company just staked 108.7 million tokens, showing that institutions are really bullish on SUI, effectively reducing the supply by 2.7%, creating some deflation here.~

Looking forward to the next wave of $SUI explosion.

Looks like we need to do some more homework on our entries; if we position ourselves right, we can ride the gains.

What else can we stack for the next run?

$SUI
$UNI
$SOL
$ONDO

Mainstream coins represented, high market cap projects
These last 2 days have seen some pump
Clearly, this rotation logic is different from the past
This round first pumps small-cap, high liquidity altcoins
Then starts to lift the mainstream coins
What does this change signify?
Everyone can ponder on that.

In the crypto space, it's a zero-sum game, and A8's Cullinan is buried with those who think "this time is different." MEME and contracts aren’t original sins; they’re IQ filters that specifically weed out those who think they’re just here to scoop up easy money.

But don’t get too hyped about the Nasdaq hitting 100; back in 2022, when it dropped 35%, those who thought "just dollar-cost average" got liquidated faster than in crypto. At least in crypto, the rules are laid out clearly, while the dull blade of the US stock market cuts through the illusion of "long-term investing."

Without proper knowledge, it’s all just fertilizer, it’s just that the grass on Wall Street grows a bit slower.

These days, the meme coins on the chain are literally jumping from one chain to another every day.

One minute they're pumping on Ethereum, next they're off to Solana, and last night it was all about Ton. Tomorrow, who knows which ecosystem will take off next.

I feel like I'm not trading crypto; I'm participating in some kind of cross-chain extreme training. The most painful part is seeing others go in with 10x or 20x leverage, hitting that financial freedom. Meanwhile, I buy in: thanks for providing liquidity, boss.

Every time I place an order, the candlestick charts start free-falling immediately. I can't help but wonder if the project team is watching my wallet to time their moves, haha.

Forget it, forget it. I really can't compete in this PVP.

Instead of chasing meme coins across the chains daily, only to get reaped back and forth, I'll just stick to hoarding my BTC. At least it won’t rug me in the middle of the night.

Big news tonight! April's Non-Farm Payroll data is about to drop.

March's non-farm numbers hit a whopping 178,000, but April's forecast has been slashed to 50,000-60,000, a cliff dive for sure, with the unemployment rate still stuck at 4.3%.

Don’t be fooled by the cooling job market; the Fed isn’t ready to ease up on interest rates just yet.
Inflation isn’t stable, and job resilience still holds, so the Fed is only interested in a continued downward trend, ignoring short-term monthly data.

Here are three scenarios to watch:

✅
Data drops significantly below 40,000: expect the dollar to weaken, while gold, the Nasdaq, and BTC all surge;

✅
Data comes in flat or stronger: the dollar and US Treasuries make a strong comeback, and high-valuation assets face pressure and corrections;

✅
Jobs weaken but wages remain strong: the market will experience tug-of-war, with volatility and uncertainty in direction.

Non-Farm Payroll night carries a lot of variables, so steer clear of heavy bets. 🚫

On-chain market is gradually picking up, right?

Mainnet:
$asteroid peaked near 200m, currently at 130m+
$upeg peaked at 30m+, now sitting at 8m+
$slop had a high of 6m+, currently at 3m+
$sato hit 30m, now at 15m+
$sat1 in its main bullish wave, currently at 10m+

BSC:
$SATO currently at 1m+
$elizaok peaked at 2m+, now at 1.5m+

SOL:
$HANTA peaked at 15m+, currently at 8m+

Hope to break out to the major exchanges and hit that on-chain ceiling.

I don't know when the crypto scene turned into this mess.

Building = shilling = market manipulation;
Whoever builds must pump the price; if you don't pump, you're just harvesting the weak hands;
If you're in A9, you must pump the price, otherwise, what's the point of making so much money;
If a big wallet sells, it's just harvesting the weak hands; you can only buy, not sell;
Once you buy, you must start shilling, or you're just consuming + riding on community traffic;
If you're in a big wallet, there are definitely a bunch of small wallets too; I don't believe there aren't any. Just because the big wallet hasn't sold doesn't mean the small wallets haven't; I have no proof, but you definitely sold;
You shilled from 800k to 1m, but I don’t care; I lost money, and you're just harvesting the weak hands;
Once you shill this coin, you have to take responsibility for everyone who bought it;

......

Is this normal logic?

The crypto space is filled with people like this now; who still dares to do anything, who still dares to build? Everyone's just going for easy wins, at least they made money, and you can curse all you want.

Investing = In a non-linear multiplication world, maximizing long-term geometric growth rate with limited information, finite lifespan, and bounded rationality, all while staying alive.

It's about matching positions and understanding.

Surviving and then compounding—this simple yet profound statement encapsulates the essence of investing.

True investment freedom isn't about making the most profits; it's about having the ability to place your next bet amidst slow but steady growth.

BTC
The signs of a bull run are already showing.

Based on previous cycle experiences, the hallmark of the early bull market is rising prices, yet retail traders remain skeptical about the market improving.

Of course, most traders won't be on the same bullish page, as market sentiment usually lingers in the aftermath of the last downturn.

This is the cunning nature of a bull market.

Market prices always start to recover before people's memories do,

When folks begin to adjust to the upward trend and get excited, the market has already moved from the early stages of the bull run into a euphoric zone.

In this past month, BTC has been steadily repairing its cost zone, soaking up massive sell orders while squeezing the shorts, and institutions are re-establishing their risk appetite, leading to a significant influx of ETFs in early May.

U.S. spot BTC ETF saw

- On May 1, a net inflow of $629.8 million
- On May 4, a net inflow of $532.3 million
- On May 5, a net inflow of $467.3 million
- On May 6, still a net inflow of $46.2 million

In fact, there's not much difference between BTC and those pump-and-dump coins like RAVE; both rely on short positions as fuel to inch upward in the early stages. After BTC's rise, the funding rates remain largely negative,

During the upward movement, the market still holds a lot of short or hedged positions, and when retail traders are collectively bullish, we are already entering the mid-stage of a bull market where new highs are being breached.

At least for now, I believe we can start to gradually build positions, as the likelihood of dropping below 60k is becoming slim.

Good news comes out but prices drop, as expected!

(1) Why did prices drop even with a ceasefire signal?

Before the news dropped, institutions had been buying for three days straight, with inflows of 630 million on 5/1, 530 million on 5/4, and 470 million on 5/5.

Once the good news hit, they sold off to those chasing the news, cashing out and leaving.

People are getting too savvy these days; everyone wants to play the smart game, but there are always smarter players ahead of them.

(2) Whether prices go up or down depends on interest rate signals.

Yesterday, BitMEX co-founder Old Black mentioned: whether Bitcoin rises or not mainly depends on whether the Fed is going to print money.

The wise guy signed a bunch of crypto regulations, yet it’s still down 25% after a year and a half; regulatory good news doesn’t do much.

Every major crypto surge corresponds to central banks printing money, and now the Fed keeps delaying interest rate cuts.

So don’t wait for any good news to stimulate prices; it’s about whether the central bank is injecting cash, but remember, trend is king!

(3) What to do today?

Hang tight; a shorting opportunity is just around the corner!

If there’s another spike before the 5/14-15 meeting, it’ll be the best time to short at the highs.

If it breaks below 78k, watch for 75k or even below 70k; if it rebounds to 83-85k, short in batches!

I've been feeling like there are a lot of meme coins lately,
with sudden spikes of 100%.

But when I check the BTC dominance, it’s hitting recent highs around 61%?

Survivorship bias? The news and media are all about how XX coin has multiplied by X times, but it seems like everyone still holds $BTC .

Or maybe not even $BTC ?

Let’s talk, what has everyone been buying lately?

The logic behind the catch-up rally still holds water.
$BNB shot up from the snapshot at $631 to a peak of $664,
$SOL climbed from the snapshot at $85 to a high of $90.

In a bull market, trading mainstream coins may not have the excitement and massive gains of altcoins,
but it certainly provides stability.

That said, to be honest, these days, nothing beats sticking with $BTC.
From what I remember, during the last bull run triggered by ETF/fiscal policies, it was all about $BTC.
The rest of the mainstream and altcoins just fizzled out.

How many bull markets does it take to achieve financial freedom?

For example: you have 30,000 USDT, when the bull market comes, multiplying your investment by 5 to 10 times is not an issue. Taking the average, let's say 7 times. After two bull markets, do the math: 30,000 USDT X 7 = 210,000 USDT, then 210,000 USDT X 7 = 1,470,000 USDT, that’s a 49x return, and just like that, 10 million is in your hands, easy as pie.

We all understand the logic, but executing it is tough. When you make money in a bull market, you always think about making even more, and before you know it, you end up giving it all back. Then in a bear market, you just want to break even, and you end up tossing and turning without gaining anything.

Take right now for example; people are saying the rebound is close to its peak, advising you to stay patient and take it slow. Can you hold out? Honestly, many people make big bucks in bull markets, but very few can actually hold onto their wealth and patiently wait for the next bull run.

So, in a bull market, you need some guts, and in a bear market, you need to keep your composure. You’ve got to be able to ride the highs of a bull market while also enduring the quiet of a bear market. Why is it so tough? To be blunt, real skill lies beyond those candlestick charts. Understanding this might take years, even a lifetime.

Stop thinking about getting it all at once. Want to earn 10 million? First, set a small target, aim for 1 million or 5 million. It’s like chasing a girl; you’ve got to take it step by step. At first, take her out for dinner or a movie, get to know her before holding hands or kissing. If she's into it, then you can sneak in some little perks. When the timing is right, then you can bring up the idea of a hotel.

You think you can just show up and say, 'The room is ready, let's go!' without even meeting her? Do you really think that’ll work?

Come on, guys, you all know how to chase girls, so why do you get so lost when it comes to trading? It really makes me worry!

These days, the market is most likely to get people hyped up not because of a pump, but because many start auto-assuming there's a 'new round of main rally' as soon as prices go up.

My take is pretty straightforward:

If it pumps, it means risk appetite is coming back.
But a recovery ≠ just blindly FOMOing in.

What you should really watch isn't how hot the sentiment is,
but whether your trading execution is keeping pace.

Many folks think they're lacking in opinions,
but what they're really missing is:

- When to enter
- How much to buy
- How to exit if it goes south
- How to stay calm amid volatility

When the market heats up, it's not about who can shout the loudest,
but rather whose execution is more consistent.

The market is never short on opportunities; what's lacking are the ones who can execute correctly.

How can YaoCoin only pump for a day? Isn't it hitting new highs again? LAB started its run on May 1st at 0.69 and has surged to 4.47 today, making the whales enjoy a solid 6-day ride with a 6.5x gain.

For reference:
River kicked off on December 31st at 4.9, peaking at 89 on January 26th, giving a massive 18x gain over 26 days. However, it then faced a brutal 6-day downtrend back to 15, an 84% drop, and struggled for another 2 months, hitting a low of 7 and a high of 33, currently at 6.1.

RAVE launched on April 9th at 0.31, reaching a peak of 28.6 on the 18th, giving a mind-blowing 92x over 10 days, but on the same day it crashed 87% back to 2.8, now sitting at 0.6.

In comparison, LAB's run duration and magnitude are clearly lacking. Oddly enough, since the pump on May 1st, the funding rates for bn and bg have been consistently positive, not a single negative rate in sight. Pushing through with positive funding rates, how do you think the whales are making their money? Wide swings eating both long and short positions?

At the start of April, I predicted that by 2026, 95% of traders would miss out on this year's entire rally. This month, I’ve upped that to 99%. The bear sentiment cultivated from October to February is overwhelming, and $80k is a critical resistance level. Break through it, and we could aim for $91k to $96k; fall back, and we could defend $74k. Many folks wouldn’t buy the dip below $67k, and even fewer would consider it above $80k. In the coming months, the highs will only get higher until the entire rally leaves them behind. Then, they’ll chase above $100k, adding to their bags above $120k, risking getting caught holding at the top just for a few thousand points of tail end space.

Some traders think the indicators for a bear to bull transition don’t align with the current trend reversal criteria. For instance, some say we need to break $96k to confirm a bull market. Sorry, but by the time we hit $96k, my holdings will have doubled, and I’ll be ready to offload my BTC spot. Back at $67k, I predicted that the major trend would flip around May to June, and no one cared. Should I be worried about waiting for a rebound to $96k to confirm a bull? Does it even matter if we’re bullish or bearish? It doesn't affect our strategy of buying the dip, playing it safe, and aiming for steady progress.

Glassnode data shows that institutional funds are shifting from 'withdrawal mode' back to 'exploration mode'——

1）CME positions are a core indicator of institutional leverage participation, with current BTC futures OI at $64.37 billion, stabilizing from the lows of the past two weeks, and is in a mild bottoming phase.

2）The assets under management for US spot ETFs have rebounded from deep negative levels, with ETPs seeing over $4 billion in net inflows for five consecutive weeks.

3）There has been a continuous net outflow from exchanges over the past week.

The current state should resemble an early recovery, with the ideal scenario being:

ETF 30D position changes consistently returning to positive, CME open interest rising in tandem, and BTC prices steadily climbing, indicating that both spot allocation funds and derivative risk exposures are recovering simultaneously. The bottom for $BTC will become increasingly solid.

This week, let's hope to hold $80k, and let those who missed out at $60k weep bitterly!

I genuinely hope the crypto space can bounce back, but right now, there’s no sign of it. The world is being transformed by AI, yet there isn't a single legit AI project in crypto.

It's all a scam fest, and the main reason for the current state of the crypto market is the lack of proper regulatory oversight. Scamming is just too easy, and nobody's really willing to put in the work.

All the narratives in crypto have lost credibility. I remember back in the day when the first AI rally in the US stock market happened, crypto's AI coins like ark and fet actually followed suit. Now, they’re completely out of the game because everyone knows it’s fake AI. Previously, sports tokens would pump 10x during the World Cup, and now nobody's even talking about them. Storage tokens used to get hyped too, but with the stock market's storage plays going off the charts, crypto hasn’t kept pace at all.

So, people have stopped believing in the crypto narratives. If in three years, crypto is still all about memes, that would be pretty sad, right?

Long-term, I reckon 99.9% of coins in crypto will go to zero because most of their value is propped up by consensus. When nobody believes anymore, it’s game over.

Can BSC break through the competition across various chains this time? Capital plays a role, but I believe everyone working together is crucial.

Everyone can choose which coins to buy, but I recommend we avoid public FUD against each other.

Let’s team up to grow the pie and attract more funds from other chains into BSC. That way, I believe we can all cash in big during this trend wave!

Let's get it going; we can't always be riding on the coattails of foreign chains. It's time for the international community to recognize the unity and strength of the Chinese community!