The Polymarket Bitcoin Trade Paying 63% Annualized With Near-Certain Odds

Why this report matters

Bitcoin has remained pinned near $90,000 since November 18, validating our short-strangle positioning. On November 24, we recommended selling the $70,000 put and $100,000 call for the December 26, 2025 expiry, targeting roughly a 30% annualized return.

With the structure now compressing from $2,279 to $1,435, the short-volatility thesis is unfolding as expected.

As liquidity thins into year-end, near-riskless arbitrage has become harder to find.

Yet we outline below a compelling setup on Polymarket that still pays 63% annualized if the event simply fails to materialize, an outcome now approaching mathematical certainty (although it is more of a fun trade).

More importantly, Wednesday’s FOMC echoes two earlier playbooks with clear outcomes for Bitcoin.

Is this really the moment to gamble, or the moment to recognize the odds are already priced in?

Would you take this Bitcoin bet below with near mathematical impossibility but still paying annualized returns of 63%?

We discuss the trade here: https://update.10xresearch.com/p/the-polymarket-bitcoin-trade-paying-63-annualized-with-near-certain-odds-0300