2026 Hawkish Rate Cut 🔥🔥🔥 The monetary easing has basically been set! The two major 'money printing machines' of China and the U.S. are working in sync: China is signaling a more proactive fiscal policy + loose monetary policy, while the Federal Reserve is rumored to be brewing a 2026 expansion plan, with monthly purchases of U.S. Treasuries potentially reaching $45 billion. In short: water is coming, and it's a flood. $BTC $ETH $BNB
On this backdrop, gold and crypto assets are directly linked to positive news. Especially Bitcoin, which has seen calls for it to reach 180,000 USD — this is not just talk; it's a liquidity expectation being priced in early.
But beware, there are shards of glass in the revelry.
Recently, the market has been a bit strange: clearly, the probability of a rate cut in December has risen to 87%, yet Wall Street has quietly started to retreat. Why? Because this rate cut is very likely to be a 'hawkish rate cut'.
A 25 basis point cut is a given, but the devil is in the details: what if this is a one-time cut, and the next cycle could be pushed straight to 2026; Powell will be replaced next year, will the new chair be hawkish or dovish? The dot plot next week may expose a division within the Fed — some want to continue cutting, while others even want to raise rates again.
In this situation, a rate cut may ironically become 'good news fully priced in', and the market faces a double bind: the economy is too strong, inflation rebounds, and the shadow of tightening reappears; the economy is too weak, and recession fears trigger sell-offs. Smart money is already hedging while shouting bull.
Adding to the unexpected variables: a 7.6 magnitude earthquake in Japan may delay the yen's rate hike plan, causing instant fluctuations in the forex market; global central banks are holding meetings this week, most choosing to stay put... The market is in a highly sensitive period.
Thus, for BTC, ETH, and BNB, the near future may be a script of 'macro support, but increased volatility'.
· BTC, as the leader and liquidity preference, remains resilient in the medium to long term under easing expectations, but is easily spiked in the short term due to Fed speeches and sentiment.
· ETH, besides following the macro, also needs to observe ecological funding and staking dynamics, with volatility potentially more severe than BTC.
· BNB is tightly bound to the Binance ecosystem and platform coin cycle; if market sentiment overall heats up, it typically won’t be absent.
Personal opinion summary: The narrative of easing in 2026 has already started, but the road ahead is paved with uncertainty. Hold the big direction, but fasten your seatbelt — the real storm may just be beginning to brew.
