The Bank of Japan (BOJ) meeting on December 18-19 has a high probability of raising interest rates by 25bp to 0.75%, reaching up to 90%, which will end the era of ultra-low interest rates. This will lead to a liquidation of yen carry trades, squeezing liquidity in the cryptocurrency market, and increasing the risk of selling off risk assets like BTC (historically, a drop of 18% in 2024). The current BTC price is $90,439 (24h -1.32%), with a total market capitalization of $2.85T. The market is under short-term pressure but has partially priced in

interest rate hike expectations and background.

The BOJ will hold a meeting from December 18 to 19, 2025, with the market pricing in a probability of over 90% for a rate hike to 0.75%, driven by the higher-than-expected Tokyo core CPI and hawkish signals from several officials (such as committee member Nakamura Toyoaki stating that 'the conditions for a rate hike are maturing'). This marks the end of Japan's years of ultra-loose monetary policy, and the strengthening of the yen is already partially evident (10-year JGB yields breaking an 18-year high of 1.95%). phemex ainvest

Driving factors: Inflation reaching 2.0%, a weakening yen pushing up import costs, and reduced political resistance. Pricing situation: The market has already digested this in advance, and speculative net long positions in yen limit extreme volatility, but the rise in real interest rates translates to an 'effective rate hike'. bitget

Core impact mechanism on the cryptocurrency market: The biggest risk is not a sudden surge in the yen, but the liquidation of yen carry trades: Investors borrow low-interest yen to invest in high-yield assets (such as BTC and US stocks), and a rate hike raises financing costs, compressing spreads and forcing deleveraging. New leverage decreases, and the pressure on existing positions increases, leading to liquidity tightening and heightened risk aversion. coindesk mexc

Transmission path: Global yields rise → Discount rates increase → Cryptocurrency valuations come under pressure; volatility amplifies during Asian trading hours. Historical comparison: A similar event in mid-2024 caused BTC to drop 18% intraday. Although the current environment is gradual, the leverage chain is prone to break (BTC is sensitive to macro risks). Long-term effects: Funds flow into US Treasuries/gold, combined with a 20% unified cryptocurrency tax in Japan starting in 2026, suppressing speculation. $BTC $ETH #加密市场观察 #美联储重启降息步伐