🚨 Everywhere you look, it's all bad news!——

1⃣ Analysts say Bitcoin may break out of a bearish flag pattern and could drop to $70,000.

2⃣ Foreign version Liangzi James Wynn warns: Crypto and stock markets are about to face a 'bloodbath.'

3⃣ JPMorgan: The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts are fully priced in, and a wave of profit-taking is coming.

When bad news converges, that's when you should really start thinking! Because the market will never move in the expected direction when emotions are in agreement.

So I've been simulating a question over the past couple of days——

If we are in chaos now, what might 2026 look like?

I forecasted three possibilities:

1⃣ The macro environment from 2024–2025 is too extreme, with sustained high interest rates + tight U.S. fiscal conditions + ongoing geopolitical friction + inflationary pressures in major economies, all converging. Each factor is enough to change the logic of capital pricing.

Historically, phases where macro parameters collectively deviate from the norm often require 1–2 years to recalibrate asset risk premiums.

2026 is likely to be the year of position cleansing → valuation system reconstruction → emergence of a major directional trend.

2⃣ Looking back at the past few years, the AI narrative has supported the entire 2024-2025, especially in U.S. stocks. But in Crypto, apart from MEME, AI has always lacked direct value support.

In the past two years, it has been RWA that is gradually commercializing comprehensively, the scale of stablecoins continues to rise, and institutions' demand for on-chain finance is becoming clearer, with financial infrastructure maturing.

Growth itself is already happening, and it’s very likely that next year will give rise to a new sustainable business model.

3⃣ The Nasdaq and NVDA have been on a strong upward trend, while BTC has been diverging negatively.

I believe this divergence will not exist for long; when the macro environment is extreme → a large cycle of reversion occurs, the correlation between assets usually converges again. You can refer to the turning points of 2016 and 2020 for guidance.

So 2026 is likely to be the starting point for traditional markets and crypto markets to enter a new phase together.

Ultimately, the above are just simulations; how the market will ultimately move is determined by time.

But one thing will not change:

No matter what the market looks like next year, the chips of wealth have already been redistributed long ago.

I believe that 20% of people have already been washed out, and many will not realize it until they hit zero, simply being treated as part of the game.