BITWU

The China Internet Finance Association and six other associations have issued a risk warning regarding the prevention of illegal activities related to virtual currencies:

Key points:

1️⃣ Virtual currencies, stablecoins, and RWA tokens are all included in the risk category,

2️⃣ Domestic institutions are prohibited from providing any related services,

3️⃣ Content platforms will further tighten their review processes.

The actual impact on the industry is not significant, and the effect on holders is minimal. Chinese users have already formed a factual consensus of "assets and transactions being overseas." I believe the regulatory focus should be on preventing the spillover of gray area channels.

A reminder that relevant practitioners should also pay attention to certain risks.

More critically: RWA has been named for the first time, indicating that the narrative has reached a certain intensity, and regulation must set boundaries in advance.

When a message is forwarded by the majority and becomes well-known, forming a market consensus, this consensus is likely to be broken.

This is the law of market game——

A continuous cycle of establishing and breaking consensus, completing the harvest!

The strength of trends is not something we can decide;
but whether we can make money in the long term is something we can set the rules for ourselves.

Assets like the Nasdaq are backed by some of the world's leading companies working for you, and its logic is clear, linear, and compound.

Bitcoin, on the other hand, follows a different logic: cyclicality, high volatility, extreme emotions, and narrative-driven.

However, its long-term direction is very clear—

scarce assets + global consensus + not relying on a single country's institutional environment.

So how do you choose?

I can't choose; I can only have them all.

In the next cycle, continue to stick with regular investments in the Nasdaq and BTC!

🚨 Everywhere you look, it's all bad news!——

1⃣ Analysts say Bitcoin may break out of a bearish flag pattern and could drop to $70,000.
2⃣ Foreign version Liangzi James Wynn warns: Crypto and stock markets are about to face a 'bloodbath.'
3⃣ JPMorgan: The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts are fully priced in, and a wave of profit-taking is coming.

When bad news converges, that's when you should really start thinking! Because the market will never move in the expected direction when emotions are in agreement.

So I've been simulating a question over the past couple of days——

If we are in chaos now, what might 2026 look like?

I forecasted three possibilities:

1⃣ The macro environment from 2024–2025 is too extreme, with sustained high interest rates + tight U.S. fiscal conditions + ongoing geopolitical friction + inflationary pressures in major economies, all converging. Each factor is enough to change the logic of capital pricing.

Historically, phases where macro parameters collectively deviate from the norm often require 1–2 years to recalibrate asset risk premiums.

2026 is likely to be the year of position cleansing → valuation system reconstruction → emergence of a major directional trend.

2⃣ Looking back at the past few years, the AI narrative has supported the entire 2024-2025, especially in U.S. stocks. But in Crypto, apart from MEME, AI has always lacked direct value support.

In the past two years, it has been RWA that is gradually commercializing comprehensively, the scale of stablecoins continues to rise, and institutions' demand for on-chain finance is becoming clearer, with financial infrastructure maturing.

Growth itself is already happening, and it’s very likely that next year will give rise to a new sustainable business model.

3⃣ The Nasdaq and NVDA have been on a strong upward trend, while BTC has been diverging negatively.

I believe this divergence will not exist for long; when the macro environment is extreme → a large cycle of reversion occurs, the correlation between assets usually converges again. You can refer to the turning points of 2016 and 2020 for guidance.

So 2026 is likely to be the starting point for traditional markets and crypto markets to enter a new phase together.

Ultimately, the above are just simulations; how the market will ultimately move is determined by time.

But one thing will not change:

No matter what the market looks like next year, the chips of wealth have already been redistributed long ago.

I believe that 20% of people have already been washed out, and many will not realize it until they hit zero, simply being treated as part of the game.

#币安区块链周

I am on site!

Harvests Beyond Awards——

Thanks to Binance Square for being recognized as one of the top 100 independent researchers.

1️⃣ BN DUBAI Awards Ceremony

This awards ceremony was a bit different; for me, what was truly special was not the award itself, but the 'chemical reaction' after receiving it.

After I went on stage, many overseas friends whom I didn't know on X, and had never even followed, were present. Many took the initiative to help me shoot videos and photos, and sent them to me privately.

This gave me a clear signal:

Even though I have been creating content primarily in Chinese, my content has been slowly seen and reached globally.

Some overseas agencies, project teams, traders, and freelancers have already been quietly following me. Many people are aware of my existence and have somewhat accessed my content.

This is somewhat encouraging for me, and I might consider occasionally posting some content in English in the future, or bravely stepping out a bit more.

2️⃣ The second profound feeling: English flaws.

The best way to speak at the awards ceremony should definitely be in English, as the event is quite international and the setting is more formal, allowing for a better introduction of oneself.

I only realized there was a 30-second sharing session right before going on stage, which is something I did poorly; I didn’t pay attention to this information, leading to a bit of a scramble.

However, I still insisted on expressing my gratitude in English.

Because the content was very unfamiliar and it was my first time facing a global audience in English, I was a bit hesitant and nervous, stumbling a lot.

But I feel this is a new beginning. After going back, I will work on improving my English speaking skills, starting with practicing my self-introduction, and then aiming to be able to speak for 1 minute without obstacles in any setting.

Yesterday marked a new start for me. I didn't speak well, but I dared to begin, which opens up more possibilities for improvement. Every time going forward, I can be better than yesterday, and that’s pretty great.

So:
I am grateful to the overseas friends who helped take photos and sent them to me, as it is actually encouragement for me:
I am grateful for my courage to speak English to express thanks, even if it was very poor.

#BinanceBlockchainWeek

Thanks for #Binance

This market is not pricing facts, but pricing fantasies.

The market is ultimately dominated by confidence and emotions:

Recently, I don't know if everyone has seen through this truth:
The crypto market has never been priced based on fundamentals, nor on data; fundamentals and data are merely the results of narrative changes, while emotions and confidence are the real leaders!

Because the market is fundamentally not rational and linear, after the significant drop, the lack of liquidity is just a surface phenomenon, but the real issue is the blow to confidence. When confidence collapses, even good news will be seen as bad news, and any small rise is seen as an opportunity to sell; however, if confidence returns, every bullish candle may be interpreted as the start of a new cycle.

So when you see a rise, there seems to be good news everywhere, but when there's a drop, bad news is everywhere!

If you don't believe me, search it today; you'll see quite a bit of good news.

So do you think the market is pricing facts? Wrong! In fact, the market has always been pricing fantasies: most of the time, what can be different in the market mainly depends on what is different in the hearts of the market participants;

Prices are just the average of everyone's fantasies: in a market dominated by emotions, the value of all information depends on what the market currently wants to believe.

So dear ones, what do you believe in now?

Is this wave a rebound to deceive, or a reversal after the wash is completed?

What are we talking about when we talk about investment discipline!
Today's brief:

Brother Shenfish mentioned Stoic philosophy today: "Risk management is paramount" corresponds to the dichotomy of control—focus on what you can control (process, discipline, emotion), and give up what you can't control (market, macro, others).

I think this is the underlying logic of investment discipline,
I always remind myself to always keep in mind:
Only bear the pain you can endure,
Only pursue the returns you won't lose control over.

Because emotions are the enemy, not allies!

My current response is to immediately stop (go for a walk, close trading software) when any of the following emotions arise:

1️⃣ Wanting to "win back"
2️⃣ Wanting to "overturn opponents in one go"
3️⃣ Trades driven by anger, regret, or anxiety

Because I may not be that great, but if I survive a few more bull markets, I will likely become a long-term survivor, and the odds will responsibly lead me to the winning group.

This is investment discipline; this approach is particularly suitable for those who are cognitively humble and pursue "living long" rather than "winning fast."

November ended with a decline of 16.5%, marking the third worst performance in history!

December started with another cut, dropping five points early in the morning!

Currently $BTC 86700 $ETH 2850

It seems that the beginning of this month is again a story of looking for support levels: In the short term, ETF capital inflow is slowing down, and long-term holdings are starting to loosen; for now, it is still best to respect the trend and not bet on a V-shaped reversal. If there is another round of decline, it may be time to seize some opportunities.

Finding support levels, patiently waiting; when there is no direction, focus on self-improvement!

The dark November has passed, what will December be like?

Garbage time is like this——

This is my least favorite phase because when there is no direction, people start to overthink;

But it is also the phase I am most accustomed to, as garbage time can force one to see clearly what logic they are actually relying on.

So for me,

The main task for December is not to make money, but to stay sensitive, stay patient, and maintain my position;

Persist in writing, persist in walking 10,000 steps a day, persist in connecting, there are also many things that can be done during garbage time, don't waste yourself!

How to buy at a good price?

Meng Yan shared five principles in "Investment First Lesson":

1. Stay in the market as much as possible.

2. In the long run, returns mainly come from the growth of corporate profits. The longer the investment time, the lower the proportion of returns contributed by valuation changes.

3. For each investment, if the holding period is long enough, there is no need to be overly concerned about buying at the lowest price, but also do not buy too expensively.

4. During the long-term holding process, buying during undervalued opportunities can further improve returns.

5. If the valuation in a bull market is too high, selling part of it can significantly increase long-term returns.

Buy firmly at a position where you can accept losses, and the essence remains unchanged!

⚡️It is now widely believed that the position of #BTC 10w is very critical!

Tom Lee has also rarely surrendered, it seems that the impact this time is indeed quite large!

He stated that the previously proposed target of $250,000 is no longer achievable, and BTC is very likely to reach $100,000 within the year, "perhaps" setting a new high.

Why is the $100,000 price so critical?——

At the price level near $100,000, 71% of the circulating supply of BTC is still in profit, and the current selling pressure mainly comes from long-term holders.

$100,000 is the historical fair price line, which is the average premium of BTC relative to the average purchase price in its history.

According to historical backtesting, during the transitional phases of the two previous cycles of bull and bear market changes, if BTC rebounds multiple times after breaking below the fair price line but fails to hold, it will then enter a deep bear phase!

⚡Stablecoin issuers have also become half central banks——

According to official data estimates, the world's largest stablecoin issuer Tether holds 116 tons of gold, worth about 14 billion USD:

Tether's current holdings are comparable to the official reserves of countries like South Korea, Hungary, or Greece, making it the largest single holder of gold outside of major central banks.

In just the third quarter, Tether purchased approximately 26 tons of gold, accounting for 2% of global gold demand during that period, equivalent to 12% of known central bank purchases.

So, why did Tether increase the proportion of gold reserves for USDT after the bill was passed?

Can someone explain this issue!

🚨The ratio of supporters to non-supporters of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is approximately 4:5, with a higher probability of pausing rate cuts in December, and Powell has yet to make a statement.

The market needs direction, but over the past six months, the internal consistency of direction within the Federal Reserve has been poor.

In the past two years, Powell, who was revered by the market as the universe's main camera, has now become the deciding vote in the entire FOMC.

Powell previously stated:

When driving in heavy fog, what would you do? You would slow down, and it might be more reasonable to adopt a more cautious approach in your actions.

This is also the main reason why Master Powell has not come out to speak—

Because it is very likely that the market won't wait for him to finish speaking before preemptively adjusting their expectations.

In fact, from Master Powell's perspective, he is about to retire, and making big moves now would be too late. Inflation and crisis, if it were up to me, I would choose inflation.

After all, in May next year, Trump will choose a chairman of his liking to take office, and by then, it will not be up to the understanding of the king, but rather to pass on the risks of the ever-increasing AI bubble to future generations!

⚡️Polymarket's market cap estimate for Monad TGE——

57% of people bet over 3 billion, only 26% of people bet over 4 billion.

A bit pessimistic, during a phase of ample liquidity, with Monad's financing background, it could directly reach 6 billion at the opening.

Currently, the cost price for new shares is 0.025 (2.5 billion FDV), pre-market is 0.033 (3.3 billion FDV), approximately 30% profit.

I am already satisfied; in this market, making money is really damn hellishly difficult!

How do most retail investors operate?——

From 1 yuan to 8 yuan, retail investors will sell everything,
When it rises from 8 yuan to 13, retail investors will hold back,
From 13 to 20, retail investors regret,
From 20 to 30, retail investors just watch the excitement,
From 30 to 40, retail investors are infuriated.
When it pulls back to 35, retail investors make small purchases,
From 35 back to 40, retail investors do not sell,
When it pulls back to 35 again, retail investors increase their positions.
From 35 back to 40, retail investors remain inactive.
When it drops to 35, retail investors replenish their positions.
From 35 to 30, retail investors are fully invested.
From 30 to 20, retail investors hold firm.
From 20 to 15, retail investors are in pain.
From 15 to 8 yuan, retail investors are in despair.
When it returns from 8 yuan to 1 yuan, retail investors cut losses.

Those who hear this are heartbroken, and those who see it are in tears!

Reliable people are different in their own ways, but unreliable people are mostly the same——

I will describe the manifestations of unreliability I have encountered over the years, and everyone can add to the comments section:

1️⃣ Promises that cannot be fulfilled
They don't do what they can do, but promise what they cannot do.
And the most fatal thing is—— they think this is very normal.

2️⃣ No “long-term relationships”:
No close friends for more than 5 years, and no stable cooperative interest community around them.

3️⃣ Treating borrowing money as a habit:
I believe borrowing money from someone is originally a one-time overdraw of credit.
But some people habitually borrow, even treating it as part of their social interaction, which is hard to understand.

4️⃣ Making promises before certainty:
Before things even take shape, they start boasting, gathering people before the project has even begun. They are the type who dare to promise friends when there is not even a hint of certainty, and then they are always stuck at the last step.

5️⃣ Only appear when the wind is favorable:
When things are going well, they jump around by your side, but as soon as there is a little turbulence, they vanish. When it's time to take responsibility, they are always missing.

6️⃣ Always complaining, but never reflecting:
The environment is bad, luck is bad, others do not help him.
All are excuses and complaints, never taking action, or taking action quickly only to complain again and then give up.

7️⃣ Emotional, impulsive, short-sighted, overturning the previous second in the next:
Today they swear an oath, but tomorrow they change their tune. They do things based on fate and make decisions based on mood; if you cooperate with them once, you will feel that your life has been wasted.

In summary, after looking around, I feel that the core of unreliability is “carefree about external commitments and extremely self-consistent internally.” Such people should never be associated with!