Next, closely watch Fed Chairman Powell's speech during the Fed's interest rate cut and the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike.
Now, the entire network is focused on the Fed's interest rate cut. In fact, this wave of good news has already materialized, $BTC rebounding from 80000 to 94000 is speculating on the Fed's interest rate cut. Next, still pay attention to next week's yen interest rate hike. Many people have forgotten that in 1998, after Japan ended its ultra-low interest rates, the Asian financial system was directly drained, and Indonesia and Thailand couldn't hold on, while South Korea was on the verge of bankruptcy.
At that time, the Fed symbolically cut by 25BP, and as a result, in early October, the yen suddenly surged, causing U.S. tech stocks to crash sharply. The Fed was forced to cut 75BP at once to stabilize the market, and U.S. stocks subsequently rebounded sharply.
The reason why the yen interest rate hike is negative for global capital markets is simple: at that time, the world was borrowing yen to buy U.S. Treasuries. Once the yen suddenly strengthens, everyone can only frantically sell U.S. Treasuries back to yen, causing U.S. Treasury yields to soar, and then all high-risk assets are hammered together, including tech stocks and BTC. This logic still holds true today.
Recent contract holding data is also quite strange, whether it's CFTC or CME, it's all piling up, looking like they are waiting for tomorrow night's interest rate cut to harvest. The real key is next week: yen interest rate hike + CPI. If the CPI surprises again with a significant increase, then it will be a situation of interest rate hikes and inflation, both directions pushing the market, and the volatility may be even greater.
Next, pay attention to Fed Chairman Powell's speech during the interest rate cut. If it is a dovish rate cut, the market may rebound a bit. If it is a hawkish rate cut + Bank of Japan interest rate hike, then the market situation will be more difficult.
