Must watch on Thursday! Key points of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision
On Thursday, both the cryptocurrency and stock markets are waiting for the 'big test' from the Federal Reserve. The core focuses on these three points, don't get confused by complex terms!
First, a rate cut is basically steady! The current probability of a rate cut has soared above 86%, which is something the market has long anticipated as 'a sure bet.' Because it has been fully digested in advance, it's highly unlikely to cause significant turbulence after the announcement, no need to rush to follow the trend.
Second, the dot plot is key! Focus on the number of rate cuts in 2026—currently, the market generally bets on '2 times.' If the result is more than this, it would be a positive surprise; if it’s cut to below 2 times, it might dampen the market's spirits, so watch closely for the reaction at the moment of announcement.
Third, there’s a 'liquidity surprise'! The balance sheet reduction has long been on pause, and now we hope the Federal Reserve will start expanding the balance sheet. Once it activates and releases funds, it’s equivalent to sending 'fresh water' to the market, which is definitely a solid positive signal.
To summarize: stay calm about rate cuts, watch the number of cuts in the dot plot, look out for surprises in balance sheet expansion, keep a close eye on news on Thursday, and following the signals will definitely be right ✅
