$ETH The wind direction has changed! The dream of the Federal Reserve's "big liquidity" next year may be shattered.
Crypto friends, a key macro expectation is quietly shifting: market traders are now betting that by the end of 2026, the total interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve may be less than 75 basis points. This is a stark contrast to the expectations of a "rate cut cycle" that everyone had a few months ago, which feels like a bucket of cold water poured over us.
What does this mean for the crypto market? Quite simply, cheap "liquidity" may not come roaring in as expected. One of the core narratives that supported the previous market optimism is being shaken. This means that the previously broad market rally purely driven by macro "liquidity" may come to an end, and the market will increasingly return to testing the intrinsic value of assets and the fundamentals of the industry.
A few strategies for retail investors:
Face the reality and adjust expectations: It is necessary to accept the reality that the macro environment is returning from "extreme easing expectations" to "neutral or mildly easing". Lower expectations for a bull market driven by large liquidity injections in the short term.
Focus on more "hard" indicators: Shift attention more towards the real data within the crypto ecosystem, such as net inflows into mainstream cryptocurrency ETFs, the number of active addresses on the chain, changes in stablecoin supply, etc. These are more concrete than fluctuating interest rate expectations.
Optimize your assets: In this environment, the importance of asset quality will increase. Consider concentrating your positions more on top assets that have clear value capture capabilities, strong communities, and ecosystems, and reduce exposure to purely narrative-driven assets.
Remember, the market is always changing. When a driving logic weakens, what we need to do is not panic, but to seek the next logic and adjust our posture.
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