The recent price action of Bitcoin shows ongoing weakness, as the asset struggles to find direction amid limited macroeconomic signals, presenting a neutral bullish outlook.
The lack of momentum has kept BTC down for several days, but the expected 25 basis point cut in the rate by the Federal Open Market Committee on Wednesday could change sentiment. Whether this becomes a catalyst heavily depends on the behavior of short-term investors.
Bitcoin investors may pose some challenge
The STH ratio for LTH has recently risen from 18.3% to 18.5%, surpassing the upper range of 17.6%. This signals a growing presence of short-term investors within the Bitcoin supply mix.
Its presence increases speculative activity, which can enhance liquidity but also create sharper intraday swings. The shift highlights a market ready for volatility if conditions change rapidly.
This higher ratio also suggests that STHs have more influence over Bitcoin's immediate trajectory. Their tendency to sell when in profit has historically limited recoveries. If the FOMC rate decision triggers a rally, STH behavior will determine whether the momentum holds or fades.
The Percentage of Bitcoin Supply in Profit increased from 66.5% to 67.3%, a modest gain of 1.2%. Although the upward movement is positive, the indicator remains well below the high range of 98.4% typical in strong bull phases. This shows that a significant portion of the supply is still in the red, reflecting a cautious environment rather than euphoric strength.
This discreet profitability aligns with initial accumulation behavior. Investors appear selective and patient, awaiting stronger macroeconomic signals before committing. If the FOMC rate cut increases risk appetite, this profitability gap leaves room for expansion and stronger follow-through.
BTC price awaits a breakout
The price of Bitcoin is at $90,399 at the time of this report, sitting just below a downward trend that has persisted for a month and a half. BTC is trying to turn $90,400 into a support level, which would mark the first step to reversing the trend.
If macroeconomic conditions align and rate cuts reignite optimism in the broader market, BTC could recover sharply. A clean jump to $90,400 could lead to a new test of $95,000, and breaking this resistance would open a clear path to the anticipated level of $100,000, confirming Bitcoin's price prediction.
However, if short-term investors sell into strength, Bitcoin may struggle to maintain upward pressure. A rejection at $95,000 or failure to break the downward trend could bring BTC back to $86,822, invalidating the optimistic scenario.
The Bitcoin article aims for $100,000 but large investors may lock in the recovery, first seen on BeInCrypto Brazil.
