The script for the next Federal Reserve meeting is highly likely to be: Powell will announce a 25bp rate cut, but will emphasize that the road ahead is not smooth and hint that the pace of rate cuts will slow in 2025 (hawkish). Regarding T-bill repurchases/stopping QT, he is very likely to indicate that the time is not yet right.

What does this mean for future market conditions?

U.S. stock and cryptocurrency markets: In the short term, there may be a "buy the expectation, sell the fact" pullback pressure, especially if it is a hawkish rate cut situation.

As long as inflation is not out of control, rate cuts will protect jobs; however, in light of fiscal stimulus expectations and sticky inflation, the Federal Reserve must maintain a tough verbal stance and slow the pace of rate cuts next year. The bearish sentiment is relative, and in the short term, it belongs to the category of good news already priced in.

After that, sideways adjustments will replace declines, and a significant crash is unlikely, with little deviation from market expectations.