(4-hour chart, 2025-12-08/09)
Core framework positioning:
- 20/50 day moving average: 90,196 / 90,380, price 90,473 has fallen below both moving averages and remains stable below
- 4-hour MACD: the fast line (DIF -7.6) is still below the slow line, a death cross has formed and the histogram continues to expand
→ Clear bearish trend, no dispute
Current key resonance zone:
The 4-hour downward trend line (connecting the high points of November 27 → December 2) + Fibonacci 0.786 retracement level are both located in the 87,300~87,800 area (the lowest point marked in the chart at 87,786 just happens to fit this double resonance support)
1-hour chart status:
- Price quickly rebounded after forming a large green bar at 87,688, currently oscillating between 90,400~90,700.
- 1-hour MACD death cross, but the bars are beginning to narrow, not yet a golden cross.
- No significant increase in trading volume.
→ Currently still in a bearish trend with a sharp pullback, no clear 'breakthrough entry' or 'pullback + death cross resonance' signal has appeared yet.
Conclusion:
Currently no effective entry signal, waiting for trend clarity.
（Bearish trend is clear, but has not yet returned to the 4-hour double resonance zone of 87,300~87,800 to form a secondary death cross resonance; if it directly breaks above 92,417 previous high, there is a risk of trend failure）
Focus on two situations (any of which triggering is sufficient to standardly launch):
1. Bearish continuation signal (optimal)
Price returns to the 87,300~87,800 resonance zone + 1-hour MACD secondary death cross → Enter short position
Expected stop loss at 88,200, take profit at 83,000~81,800, risk-reward ratio can reach over 4:1.
2. Trend failure signal
Price breaks above 92,417 previous high and retests without breaking + 1-hour MACD golden cross → Enter long position (need to immediately reverse thinking)
Currently strictly adhering to discipline:
Currently no effective entry signal, waiting for trend clarity.
Prioritize waiting for the second confirmation of the death cross in the 87,300~87,800 resonance zone, which is the most optimal entry point for bearish positions. $BTC
