Many of you focus on the ratio of 60 to 40 that I once provided.
Once.
Know that these proportions are changing. Besides, this number is the least significant element of the puzzle.
It is merely a subjective speculation about the near future and often has nothing to do with action (though it helps in making decisions).
It is much more important to distinguish between a wishful and a practical approach to the market.
The wishful approach is my 60% chance of increases.
It is just a probability, speculation based on macro data and on-chain data.
A practical approach is my actions: That I built the vast majority of my portfolio in a bear market.
That I have mainly been building a portfolio of stablecoins for over a year.
That I know when I will take profits and when I will cut losses.
That I know how long I am willing to wait for my goals.
These are important, practical things that I have full control over.
Although in almost every video I record, I want to focus on this and repeat these things like a mantra, most people still "demand" forecasts…
Opinions on forecasts only help to establish probabilities and somewhat optimize my moves in the short term.
And that's all on the subject of forecasts.
What I do understand is that you may have been convinced that in crypto you have to juggle, play only under cycles, and ordinary boring waiting is not an option.
Let alone preparing for different scenarios… after all, ‘’you won’t make 100x’’?
It's true. But do you really HAVE to grab as much as possible from the market?
Collecting stablecoins, for example, when I talk about it, often meets the argument: ‘’if you think the bull market still has a better chance, then why aren't you investing your free funds?’’
You see. Because I treat that 40% risk of drops very seriously.
Stablecoins are my insurance policy.
They protect me from a worse scenario, reduce fluctuations in the portfolio, and give me the chance to buy the assets I choose cheaper when the awaited deep correction or bear market arrives.
Think of it as building a house. An opinion (60/40) is a conversation with an architect about the weather.
Action (portfolio) is the foundation that must withstand a hurricane, even if it's unlikely.
I consider my foundations stable enough to withstand not only drops but also allow for building an even stronger and better portfolio for the future.
Most people in the market try to "optimize" and juggle positions. They convince that you need to perfectly buy the dip and sell the top.
The statistics are brutal: over 80% of professionals managing portfolios (including those from Wall Street) achieve worse results than a passive strategy of "buy and hold."
Seriously. Ordinary long-term HODL exposure to SP500 puts you at the forefront of who will achieve better results.
Not to mention Bitcoin, the statistics here are much more brutal (in favor of HODLers).
I started in 2017, and since then an increasing part of my portfolio is BTC and you know what?
I calculated that excluding altcoins, my position in Bitcoin gave me over 50% CAGR (annualized return rate on Bitcoin since I started).
I wonder who you know who has achieved better results than just the ordinary, boring HODL of Bitcoin over the last 10 years…
I am far from the need to compare myself with others.
I know why I invest and for me, that is enough.
I write about this to give you some perspective, because I see too much on the internet praising posts suggesting that optimization is good because they managed to beat the sp500…
The question is at what cost, how much time and nerves need to be sacrificed to do this, and the cherry on top, where in these comparisons is Bitcoin?
Not that Bitcoin will maintain this growth rate.
I bet you won't.
I still bet that DCA and HODL on BTC will outperform the results of 95% of people playing under cycles, losing not only money but also time, which cannot be regained.
I understood this years ago and changed my strategy.
More BTC, fewer altcoins (fewer and if so, top L1) and in the long term simple DCA (dollar-cost averaging).
I think that still holding valuable assets will outperform 95% of "jugglers."
There is one condition: you must know yourself.
You need to know if you can withstand an 80% drop and not sell in panic.
Do you have the capital to buy at that time and have the guts to do it when everyone will scream that ‘’this is just the beginning of the drops.’’
This is the price of this strategy, because like everything in investments, it also has its hidden cost.
You also need to know if you are able to wait longer for your goals, because that is what kills most profits in investments.
Lack of patience and the desire for quick profits driven by greed.
Of course, do as you wish.
This is not advice, just thoughts after being in this increasingly difficult market for the 9th year.
I also have a question for you: how much (not for a friend or acquaintances from Instagram, just for you) is ‘’enough’’ in investments?
That word has disappeared somewhere in crypto due to minute millionaires boasting only about successful hits on social media…
Add to that a question about the time horizon, meaning how long you are willing to wait for these results.
If you answer yourself honestly, it may turn out that you no longer need to waste time observing a thousand opinions on the internet and that ordinary HODL is enough…
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