12.9 Market View: First Up, Then Down!

The fluctuations have been getting smaller and smaller these days. I haven't made any moves and have just been waiting for volatility to emerge. The 90,000 position isn't a great point for going long or short. If it rises to 96,000, it could trigger 2 billion, while if it drops to 85,000, it can only trigger 1.2 billion. Tomorrow night, which is Thursday at 3 AM, there will be a decision on interest rate cuts. I think it's highly likely that there will be a rate cut, with a spike upward, possibly reaching 95,000-96,000, and then it will drop. The overall trend here is a downward oscillation, compounded by the possibility of a rate hike in Japan next week. If there really is a rate hike, then risk assets face the likelihood of a downturn because, for many years, a lot of arbitrage money has been borrowed from Japan to profit outside. Once Japan raises interest rates, their cost of capital will start to rise, leading them to sell off many risk assets. U.S. stocks may fall, and BTC will also be affected.

To be honest, the market's lack of fluctuations these past few days has made me feel a bit dazed, almost like going back to November 2018 when there was hardly any movement daily, making it tough to profit on the spread. Then suddenly, there was a sharp drop down to the 3,000 bottom. Of course, the situation now is completely different from 2018. I don't think it's likely to repeat the market conditions of that time. In the short term, 1-2 months, it will still be oscillating; we just need to patiently wait for good point ranges.

Reduce leverage, survive, and enduring through this winter is the most important thing.