Crypto清水

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12.9 Market View: First Up, Then Down!

The fluctuations have been getting smaller and smaller these days. I haven't made any moves and have just been waiting for volatility to emerge. The 90,000 position isn't a great point for going long or short. If it rises to 96,000, it could trigger 2 billion, while if it drops to 85,000, it can only trigger 1.2 billion. Tomorrow night, which is Thursday at 3 AM, there will be a decision on interest rate cuts. I think it's highly likely that there will be a rate cut, with a spike upward, possibly reaching 95,000-96,000, and then it will drop. The overall trend here is a downward oscillation, compounded by the possibility of a rate hike in Japan next week. If there really is a rate hike, then risk assets face the likelihood of a downturn because, for many years, a lot of arbitrage money has been borrowed from Japan to profit outside. Once Japan raises interest rates, their cost of capital will start to rise, leading them to sell off many risk assets. U.S. stocks may fall, and BTC will also be affected.

To be honest, the market's lack of fluctuations these past few days has made me feel a bit dazed, almost like going back to November 2018 when there was hardly any movement daily, making it tough to profit on the spread. Then suddenly, there was a sharp drop down to the 3,000 bottom. Of course, the situation now is completely different from 2018. I don't think it's likely to repeat the market conditions of that time. In the short term, 1-2 months, it will still be oscillating; we just need to patiently wait for good point ranges.

Reduce leverage, survive, and enduring through this winter is the most important thing.

12.4 Market View: The next 1-2 months will be volatile

Originally, I planned to short below 8.2 and gradually start bottom-fishing, but it went down to the lowest at 8.37 and then rebounded. Since it has been pulled up, I will consider shorting on rallies. The rebound here is relatively fast, but the maximum space is about 9.5, and there is significant pressure between 9.4 and 9.5. I will hold this short position here. As for those who say a slight rebound means the bull market has returned, I can only smile.

In fact, from a daily and weekly perspective, one can refer to the three similar waves of decline in the first half of 2021, early 2022, and early this year. Whenever there is a decline of this magnitude, there are usually significant underlying reasons. Various factors are pushing for such a strong decline, and the bulls have been severely hurt in the past two months. The position above 90,000 will not have institutions betting heavily in the short term, as many of them are already low on funds. Those who truly have money are waiting for positions around 70,000. Some say the grey industry’s exit has led to the recent drop in U, which may indicate that the selling pressure has temporarily subsided. However, from another perspective, the grey industry was also a force driving the rise before. Although they may have sold off significantly, they are unlikely to buy again in the short term. Therefore, at the 93,000 to 95,000 level, there won't be too strong of a buying force from various aspects. The strength of a major trend will not easily end. Historically, after every similar major decline, there tends to be a period of bottoming volatility. Here, it’s about shorting on the rise and bottom-fishing on the fall, which will maintain a weekly level of volatility. Once you understand this characteristic, you can patiently wait for the levels you want and manage your positions accordingly.

12.1 Market Perspective: It's time to prepare for a bottom again.

The viewpoint on the 27th indicated that this wave's BTC peak would be between 9.2-9.4, and it peaked at 93,000. The weekend market is somewhat deceptive; the real fluctuations occur during regular business days. Interestingly, negative news regarding domestic crackdowns on virtual currencies was released first, yet the weekend Bitcoin did not crash. Instead, this morning, due to Japan's potential interest rate hike, risk assets plummeted from 9.1 to the current 8.5. This clearly shows that BTC's pricing power is no longer in the domestic market but is more influenced by economic policies from other major economies worldwide. Now that it has dropped, I won't chase short positions; I expect around 8.2 to be a short-term bottom (of course, if it breaks 8 to 7, that would be better). In fact, I am not bearish on the market in December; rather, I believe we will see a weekly-level rebound here. We just need to wait for a second low point to heavily invest and buy the dip.

November 27th Market View: It won't go in one direction, but will still fluctuate!

Yesterday I mentioned that if it doesn't drop when it should, then it has to go up. Indeed, it climbed from 86,000 to nearly 92,000. My long position yesterday was mainly in ASTER, and when I entered, it was very strong, but as soon as I got in, it started to lag behind BTC a lot, which really caught me off guard. There was nothing I could do but take the loss. I originally wanted to find a low point to switch to BTC, but I went to bed early, and when I woke up, it had already risen to 90,000. That's how trading is; sometimes you just don't have the luck or fate.
Since it has gone up, I don't see a reversal here. This wave basically has a high point between 92,000 and 94,000. Tonight, without fluctuations in the US stock market, it won't be too big either. Now, the daily fluctuations basically have to wait for the US stock market to open, which will be tomorrow night, Friday. Just waiting for a crash back to the 80,000s. $BTC

November 26 market outlook: If it shouldn't drop, then let's continue to rise!

According to my model yesterday, it should have at least dropped below 82,000 in the late night, but it only went down to 86,000, which indeed broke the downtrend in the 4-hour cycle. Therefore, I closed my short position and opened a long position. I bought back my ASTER and SOL, and also set up several altcoins that I think have explosive potential. Since RVV yesterday, I felt that altcoins were a bit different, giving me a long-lost feeling that the big players are starting to position in small coins, which I am quite sensitive to.

Additionally, I see the upward space for BTC tonight between 91,000 and 93,000. If it can't go up, then I'll continue to short. This market must follow the price action and remain flexible. If you're weak, I'll short; if you're strong, I'll go long. Just follow and that's it.

11.25 Market Opinion: Go Down!

In the past few days, various bottom-fishing attempts have started again, and the market value #BTC has rebounded to a maximum of 89000, but there is no sustainability. Many big players who tried to bottom out are almost all paper hands, and deep down, they feel insecure. This reflects the thoughts of a large portion of big capital, who all know that we are currently in a bear market cycle, and the real bottom has yet to be fully tested. Objectively speaking, BTC's trend on the 4-hour level has broken through into a bullish trend; however, the technical aspects and cycles are contradictory. Here, I still choose to follow the cycle in the short term, because technical aspects can change at any time, while cycles are harder to change. Each rebound here is an opportunity for those who previously tried to bottom out to break even. If it doesn't fully test the bottom, there will be significant resistance. Only at extremely low prices will these chips be relinquished, and future rebounds will truly have sustainability, so if it needs to go down, then let it go down!

Of course, if it should drop but doesn't, I will change my strategy, but that is a discussion for later.

November 24 market outlook: 79,000 seen

The rebound in the past couple of days looks okay, but it is actually not strong, because BTC's influence on the market is very limited. SOL and ETH are both weak, which means that the continuation of the rebound here will not be good. The market is still fragile. From the liquidation perspective, pushing up to 93,000 and crashing down to 79,000 can both liquidate 1.3 billion in contracts. In such a weak market, it is highly likely to go in the direction of least resistance. To put it simply, without a thorough liquidation, there won't be significant capital to aggressively bottom fish and initiate a decent rebound. I have already established all spot and long position hedges, just waiting for an opportunity starting with 7 to heavily bottom fish.

November 22 market outlook: Perhaps 80,000 is not the bottom

I didn't post my outlook yesterday because I was repeatedly thinking about the recent abnormal trend and didn't want to make a casual comment without clarity. What I can see now is that this is undoubtedly the beginning of a major bear market cycle, lasting at least until April next year. Perhaps we will see a major bottom in April next year, but I am not so pessimistic about the recent short term. Here, 80,000 should not be the short-term bottom; there may still be one more false breakdown to around 74,000, which should be the limit. Then in December, a series of positive news will trigger a relatively strong rebound cycle, with the rebound potential reaching a maximum of 94,000 before another severe drop.

Having figured out the expected trend, the next step is to validate the expectation. Knowing and acting as one, one should buy the dip when appropriate and short when necessary.

After experiencing the first contract settlement of 1011 in history safely, and enduring this wave of decline of 88,000 safely, with only a little over 1x leverage, followers can still rank 6-8 on Binance in profits. If the asset management scale is 1 million, I believe I can surpass the first place in profits.

To be honest, I still feel a great sense of achievement. As long as you all keep following me with a bit more patience and trust, those who survive without high leverage will remain as kings. We have together weathered the most difficult market conditions, and in the future, when we have plenty of bullets in hand, when new opportunities and major market movements arise, it will be our time to soar!

I really didn't expect that every day on social media and in the square, so many so-called experts showcase their trades and casually earn a few million or tens of millions. Not to mention the photo editing and hedging, there are also quite a few who provide real trading signals with high leverage. Aren't they making so much? Aren't they earning every day? Why am I, a follower with less than 2x leverage, ranking 7th in the Binance contract trading area for profits???

Watching the experts make money on Twitter often makes me anxious, but now I'm not anxious anymore; low leverage is the right path.

#币安合约锦标赛

11.18 Market View: BTC's Bear Market, ASTER's Bull Market

Yesterday I mentioned that ASTER is currently the hottest platform token, and it's a great choice for liquidity and incremental buying right now. My main position has been in ASTER lately, and when BTC dropped to 90,000, I actually made a profit because I held ASTER. I must say, ASTER is the best safe haven in a bear market.

Today during the day, BTC actually broke 90,000. It's clear that this isn't due to selling from the Americans; it’s likely that institutions that suffered major losses on 1011 are panic-selling BTC to cover their funding gaps. They might be hoping to buy it back at a lower price! This situation is expected to last for a while, but there is indeed a demand for a rebound here. Once the rebound is in place, consider shorting BTC.

#加密市场回调

11.17 Market View: Weak Rebound Cycle Continues

In these past few days, I am not bearish, many clones are no longer falling, each decline here is a short-term trap to induce selling. As long as you dare to chase the short, you will end up getting stuck. The correct approach now is to find places with good liquidity and buying pressure. ASTER has been saying this for many days now, accumulating from 0.89 all the way up. Continue to hold, there should still be close to 98,000 or 100,000 high points for Bitcoin here, and then consider reducing positions.

#加密市场回调

11.16 BTC Market Analysis: Weak Rebound Period

BTC: The day before yesterday, I mentioned increasing positions at the bottom, and BTC has indeed stopped falling. Objectively speaking, the current rebound strength is not strong; both altcoins and BTC are not performing strongly. There is a possibility of another downward spike before pulling up again. However, whether it rebounds directly from here or has a downward spike before pulling up, it is all a weak rebound period. For the past three days, I have been bullish on dips, theoretically, there should be a rebound space up to 100,000. Specifically, I have decided to convert all BTC into ASTER during this wave. Regardless of the noise online, from a market perspective, ASTER is currently the best platform coin. If one wants to make profits in the upcoming months of the bear market, I believe ASTER will be the best choice.

1.14 BTC Market Analysis: Buying the Dip

BTC: In the past two days, we have been optimizing strategies. Yesterday, I did not buy the dip because the market was too weak. I just started building my position at 95,000, buying more as it drops. There will be a short-term rebound, and some altcoins are no longer following the decline closely. This is a signal that emotions are nearing a short-term bottom. Currently, the fear index is 16, and the human tendency for a short-term reversal point is very close.

#加密市场回调

11.11 BTC Market Analysis: One Direction Every Day!

BTC: Yesterday it just broke out, shorted at 104900, and today it has pulled back, so I took a small profit on the short position. In the middle of the night, I added some promising altcoins, especially ASTER, which has a beautiful trend. Today, let's continue to enjoy the bullish market; this kind of fluctuation shouldn't last too long.

11.11 BTC Market Analysis: It's weak, let's short on the rebounds.

#BTC : This noon it broke down, I cleared some weak altcoins and kept the ones I think still have potential. Respect the trend; weak is just weak. Prepare for defense; recently I've felt it's just garbage time. The main coin isn't strong enough, and Bitcoin is stagnating around 10.5-10.6. During garbage time, trade less, avoid leverage, and just hang on. The biggest characteristic of the crypto market is its particularly fast cycles; this week might still be a bear market, but next week could be a bull market. This week is still garbage time, and next week we may see many altcoins emerging. The crypto market is never short of opportunities and odds, so the most important thing is to ensure you survive during garbage time; that is the most important ability.

11.10 BTC Market Analysis: Bulls Continue!


#BTC : Yesterday, I mentioned that the current market is repeatedly luring shorts. Late last night, the market started to rally, partly due to strong technical support, and also because of positive news. Trump is distributing money, and it seems that the beautiful government might end the shutdown soon. In fact, some smart money knew about this before the news came out, and I even shared my views in advance, saying that this is a repeated lure for shorts. Many altcoins are no longer following the downward trend, and it's clear that there is capital positioning itself for a bullish market. For mainstream coins, just continue to buy on dips; as for me, I'm accumulating the altcoins I favor on dips and will not easily short unless the trend deteriorates again.

#币安合约实盘

11.9 BTC Market Analysis: Repeatedly Luring Shorts!

BTC: Originally, I had come out of the upward trend on Friday. My trading account reached a new high after 1011 yesterday midnight, but the market started to retrace over the weekend, and until noon today, the market has been quite weak. However, as long as you go short, it can pull back up in no time, especially altcoins. Thus, the recent repeated luring of shorts should be the main theme; each time it drops, it doesn't drop much, but as long as you chase the shorts, you'll get trapped. Shorting has no cost-effectiveness now, so be cautious when shorting. Therefore, I will gradually build up my strongest position by adding some promising altcoins at every small-level low point until a breakout occurs!

Every month, I can capture 10x or 100x altcoins, but it’s hard to take full advantage of them; having weak hands isn’t working. To hold on, I originally had 2X leverage but removed it today. In the future, I won’t use leverage, only 1X, just to achieve the results I want.

#币安合约实盘