Standard Chartered has lowered its long-term price forecasts for Bitcoin (BTC). The investment bank warns that a key pillar of recent demand, corporate purchases of Bitcoin, has likely come to an end.
The bank now believes that future gains in Bitcoin will be driven by one source: inflows from ETF funds. This may slow the pace of price growth in the coming years.
The withdrawal of Bitcoin is 'painful but normal'
In a new note, Geoff Kendrick, head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered, stated that the bank is delaying its forecasts for Bitcoin reaching a price of 500,000 USD. It is currently lowering the price target for the end of the year for 2026-2029. Kendrick said:
"Although the recent drop in Bitcoin's price was sharp, we believe it falls within expected ranges. However, further corporate purchases of Bitcoin are unlikely, as valuations no longer justify it. The ETF purchase remains, which may be slower than previously expected to drive price growth. We are lowering our price forecasts for the end of the year for 2026-2029 and shifting our $500,000 forecast to 2030. This is not a crypto winter, but a cool breeze."
Recent price changes of Bitcoin have caused concern among investors. However, Standard Chartered argues that the sell-off fits historical patterns and does not signal a structural collapse.
Kendrick noted that Bitcoin has fallen about 36% from its record level on October 6. This downward movement is comparable to other corrections since the launch of American Bitcoin ETFs. Kendrick added that similar corrections have occurred over the past two years:
"Recent fluctuations in Bitcoin (BTC) prices have been challenging, but the decline, although sharp, falls within 'normal' expectations."
The moment of reaching the peak renewed concerns about a crypto winter, as Bitcoin reached its highs about 18 months after the halving in April 2024. This is a pattern seen in previous cycles:
"The moment of recent losses, the high level from October 6 was reached 18 months after the Bitcoin supply halving in April 2024, strengthened the narrative of a 'crypto winter.'"
However, Standard Chartered dismisses the view that the traditional halving-driven cycle still dominates Bitcoin's price behavior:
"We do not share the view that the halving cycle is still important. We believe that the buyers of long-term ETFs are a much more significant factor driving prices."
Corporate purchases of Bitcoin are losing momentum
A more concerning signal, according to Standard Chartered, is the evident end of aggressive Bitcoin accumulation by publicly traded treasury companies (DAT) dealing with digital assets.
Kendrick stated that valuations no longer justify further expansion of these companies, which have played an increasingly visible role in driving demand over the last year:
"That said, price movements forced us to recalibrate Bitcoin price forecasts. Specifically, we believe that purchases by digital asset treasury companies (DAT) are likely to come to an end, as valuations measured by mNAV, a commonly used valuation metric for these firms, no longer support further expansion of Bitcoin DAT."
Although the bank does not expect mass sales from these companies, it also does not anticipate that they will continue to support prices. Therefore, Kendrick adds:
"We expect consolidation instead of direct sales, but DAT purchases are unlikely to provide further support."
Inflows into ETFs will be key support
With the expiration of corporate Bitcoin purchases, Kendrick believes the next phase of Bitcoin's price trajectory depends almost solely on ETFs:
"As a result, we believe that future increases in Bitcoin prices will effectively be driven by only one source, ETF purchases."
This change has prompted Standard Chartered to delay its most optimistic forecasts:
"Therefore, we are lowering our price forecasts for the end of the year for 2026-2029 and expect Bitcoin to reach our long-term price forecast of $500,000 only in 2030 (compared to 2028 previously)."
However, the bank maintains its long-term optimism, albeit on a longer timeline:
"We still believe that this target is achievable, as portfolio optimization between Bitcoin and gold continues to show that global portfolios are underweight in Bitcoin. Access to investments and decision-making by investment committees takes time, but we expect they will ultimately drive significant gains for Bitcoin."
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