BTC IS DOWN BUT HOLDERS HAVE NOT SOLD
For nearly two months now, $BTC has decreased by more than 30%, but when I look at the on-chain data, everything seems different from the usual corrections of this cycle. DarkFost (CryptoQuant) also emphasizes the same point: the amount of coin pushed to the exchange has almost… not increased.
Usually, during the correction phases within a cycle, investors will put coins on the exchange to sell off or hedge against risks. But this time it's the opposite. The total inflow to Binance remains low and has stayed the same throughout the price drop, something that even I find quite unusual.
I compared it to the two most recent peaks at $BTC to see it more clearly. In April 2024, after BTC hit an ATH of 73.8k, inflow skyrocketed to more than 208 million coins. In December 2024, when BTC surpassed 100k, inflow also reached about 143 million coins. Both of those times shared a common pattern: whenever the market corrects, coins are immediately brought to the exchanges.
But currently, it’s completely different. Although BTC has dropped much deeper, inflow is only around 37.8 million coins, nearly five times lower than the most recent peaks and stable throughout the decline. This clearly shows me one thing: the selling pressure is not expanding. Investors are still holding on, with no signs of panic or fleeing.
If this state continues, I think the market could enter a more stable phase, where selling pressure gradually diminishes and recovery opportunities begin to form: source x
