1. Interest rate cut of 25 basis points (most likely scenario)

· Result: In line with expectations, may experience fluctuations after a short-term surge.

· Logic: This is the baseline scenario currently priced in by the market. The announcement will confirm the beginning of the easing cycle, boosting risk sentiment, and ETH will likely experience a rapid short-term increase. However, since this has already been digested by the market, if there are no further surprises, the upward momentum may be hard to sustain, followed by high-level fluctuations or slight declines, waiting for the next catalyst.

2. Interest rate cut of 50 basis points (greater-than-expected easing)

· Result: Major positive news, initiating a strong upward trend.

· Logic: This magnitude far exceeds market expectations, demonstrating the Federal Reserve's strong determination to combat recession, leading to a sharp increase in liquidity. This will trigger a frenzy in global risk assets, with significant funds flowing into the cryptocurrency market. ETH will experience a violent surge, likely easily breaking previous highs and initiating a new upward cycle.

3. No interest rate cut (maintaining rates)

· Result: Major negative news, likely to result in a significant drop.

· Logic: This indicates that the Federal Reserve believes inflation remains stubborn, and high rates will persist longer. This will completely undermine the market's optimistic expectations, leading to a sell-off due to "disappointment." The dollar will strengthen, and risk assets will be sold off comprehensively. ETH will face tremendous downward pressure, likely breaking key support levels and entering a deep correction.

Key takeaway:

Market reactions depend not only on the decision itself but also on the comparison between the decision and market expectations. The direction of "greater-than-expected" is the root cause of drastic price fluctuations. $ETH