Standard Chartered has lowered its long-term price forecasts for Bitcoin (BTC), warning that an important pillar of recent demand, corporate buying of Bitcoin, is likely over.
The bank now believes that future gains in Bitcoin will be driven by a single source: inflows from exchange-traded funds (ETFs), a shift that could slow the pace of increases in the coming years.
The drop in Bitcoin is 'painful, but normal'
In a new note, Geoff Kendrick, head of Digital Assets Research at Standard Chartered, stated that the bank is postponing its forecast for Bitcoin to reach $500,000 and reducing its price targets for the end of 2026 to 2029.
“Although the recent drop in Bitcoin’s price has been swift, we find that it is within expected limits. However, it is unlikely that there will be more corporate Bitcoin purchases, as valuations no longer support it. This leaves ETF purchases, which may be slower than previously expected, to drive price gains from here on. We have reduced our price forecasts for the end of 2026 to 2029 and delayed our $500,000 forecast to 2030. It is not a crypto winter, just a cold breeze,” Kendrick said.
The recent price action of Bitcoin has left investors uneasy, but Standard Chartered argues that the sell-off fits historical patterns rather than signaling a structural decline.
Kendrick noted that Bitcoin has fallen about 36% since its all-time high on October 6, a drop comparable to other lows seen since the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S.
“The recent price action in Bitcoin (BTC) has been challenging, but the drop, while swift, is within ‘normal’ expectations,” Kendrick stated, adding that similar pullbacks occurred in the past two years.
The timing of the peak has fueled renewed fears of a crypto winter, with Bitcoin reaching its peak approximately 18 months after the April 2024 halving, a pattern observed in past cycles.
“The timing of the recent losses, with the peak on October 6, occurred 18 months after the April 2024 ‘halving’ of Bitcoin supply, fueling the narrative of a ‘crypto winter’,” Kendrick added.
However, Standard Chartered rejects the idea that the traditional halving-driven cycle still dominates Bitcoin's price behavior.
“We do not share the view that the halving cycle is still valid. On the contrary, we believe that long-term ETF buyers are a much more important price driver,” he noted.
Corporate Bitcoin purchases lose momentum.
The most concerning signal, according to Standard Chartered, is the apparent end of aggressive Bitcoin accumulation by listed digital asset treasury companies (DATs).
Kendrick stated that valuations no longer justify further expansion by these companies, which played an increasingly visible role in driving demand last year.
“That said, the price action has forced us to recalibrate our Bitcoin price forecasts. Specifically, we believe that purchases by digital asset treasury companies (DATs) of Bitcoin are likely over, as valuations, measured by mNAVs, the main valuation metric for these companies, no longer support further expansion of Bitcoin DATs,” he mentioned.
While the bank does not expect a widespread sell-off from these companies, it also does not believe they will support prices going forward.
“We expect a consolidation rather than a total sell-off, but it is unlikely that purchases by DATs will provide additional support,” Kendrick stated.
ETF inflows will be a key support.
With corporate Bitcoin purchases decreasing, Kendrick believes that the next phase of Bitcoin's price trajectory depends almost entirely on ETFs.
“As a result, we believe that future price increases of Bitcoin will effectively be driven by a single factor, ETF purchases,” he emphasized.
This shift led Standard Chartered to delay its more optimistic projections.
“Therefore, we have reduced our price forecasts for the end of 2026 to 2029 and expect Bitcoin to reach our long-term price forecast of $500,000 only in 2030 (previously 2028),” Kendrick stressed.
Still, the bank maintains its long-term optimism, just with an extended timeline.
“We still believe that this target is achievable, as the portfolio optimization between Bitcoin and gold continues to show that global portfolios are underweight in Bitcoin. Access to investments and investment committee decisions take time, but we expect that they will eventually drive significant gains for Bitcoin,” he added.
The Standard Chartered article makes a new price forecast for Bitcoin, and it will surprise you; it was first seen on BeInCrypto Brazil.
