✅ ADP and JOLTs job data just came out and the market clearly liked it
➡️ ADP Weekly Employment Change: +4.75k
Previous: -13.5k
➡️ JOLTs Job Openings (SEP): 7.658M
Previous 7.227M • Forecast 7.2M
➡️ JOLTs Job Openings (OCT): 7.670M
Previous 7.658M • Forecast 7.0M
➡️ JOLTs Job Quits (SEP): 3.128M
Previous 3.091M • Forecast 3.15M
➡️JOLTs Job Quits (OCT): 2.941M
Previous 3.128M • Forecast 3.1M
These figures were strongly appreciated by the crypto market. Since the data was released, BTC has delivered a gain of roughly 4%.
Normally, we prefer to see a weakening job market to support risk assets, but not today. The labor market is already weak, and there are fears that it could deteriorate too quickly.
A sharper decline would increase recession risk and confirm that the Fed is once again acting too late, which undermines confidence and could push investors away from risk markets.
Today’s data therefore provides an important signal right before the FOMC. We saw more job openings, ADP turned positive this week, and job quits came in lower than expected.
👉 It seems almost certain that we will see a rate cut tomorrow. The question now is whether the Fed will go with 0.25% or 0.50%.
🌍 The macro planets are slowly aligning…
