More than a month has passed, and I still thought you had forgotten about the bank.

【Federal Reserve Decision Outlook: More Important than Rate Cuts is the Balance Sheet Expansion Signal】Golden Finance reports that, according to foreign media analysis, the Federal Reserve officially ended its balance sheet reduction on December 1. As a result, bank reserves have fallen to historically tight financing levels, and the secured overnight financing rate (SOFR) has periodically tested the upper limits of the policy interest rate corridor. These developments indicate that the U.S. banking system is gradually entering a state of liquidity tightness. In this context, the most important signal from the FOMC may not be a 25 basis point rate cut, but rather the direction of its balance sheet strategy. The Federal Reserve is expected to clearly outline or provide implementation guidance on how it intends to transition to a Reserve Management Purchase (RMP) program. According to Evercore ISI, this program may start as early as January 2026, with approximately $35 billion allocated monthly for purchasing Treasury bills, leading to an annual increase in the balance sheet of over $400 billion. (Jin Shi)