$pippin $ZEC $LUNC
🔥 Major Warning: Everyone online is fixated on the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, but I want to say: this wave of good news has already been overdrawn! $BTC rose from 80,000 to 94,000, driven by the expectation of rate cuts. The real "eye of the storm" is next week - the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike is the hidden bomb!
🪙 Many have forgotten what happened in 1998: as soon as Japan ended its zero interest rate, the Asian financial system was directly drained. Thailand and Indonesia collapsed, and South Korea was on the brink of bankruptcy. Back then, the Federal Reserve symbolically cut by 25 basis points, and as a result, the yen soared in early October, tech stocks in the U.S. crashed, forcing the Federal Reserve to urgently cut 75 basis points to stabilize the market - leading to a violent rebound in U.S. stocks.
Why is a yen interest rate hike so terrifying?
Because all the world's capital is in "borrowing yen, buying U.S. Treasuries". Once the yen interest rate reverses and strengthens, everyone must frantically sell U.S. Treasuries to buy back yen to repay debts, directly pushing up U.S. Treasury yields, dragging down tech stocks, BTC, and all risk assets. This logic still holds true today!
Now let's look at the current data: CME and CFTC's contract holdings have surged, with everyone waiting for the interest rate cut tomorrow night - it's just like a well-prepared harvesting setup. The real key time point is next week: Bank of Japan interest rate hike + U.S. CPI data. If the CPI unexpectedly surges again, it will be a double whammy of "high inflation + yen withdrawal," and volatility could explode the charts!
So how should we look at the upcoming situation?
Keep a close watch on Powell's speech - if it’s "dovish rate cuts," the market may bounce a bit; but if it’s "hawkish rate cuts" + Bank of Japan rate hike, then it's like two knives coming at once, and the liquidity tightening blow will really come.
Don't just focus on the Federal Reserve; the real trend has quietly shifted to Tokyo.
Elon Musk Concept Little 'Milk' 🐶, 'p●u●p●p●i●e●s'
Those meme coins on the Ethereum chain that ride on Musk's hot topics (you know what I mean!)
Soaring in a low gas environment! Low chips, fierce rallies, a perfect ambush target!
