$XRP XRP breakouts face obstacles from whale selling worth $143 million
The price of XRP has fallen by about 10% over the past month despite a slight increase of 1.5% this week. The price remains confined within a range between $2.31 and $1.98, failing to secure any meaningful breakout. These tensions reflect a division in market behavior: whales are selling in strength while key holder groups continue to accumulate.
The pressure and pull between these two sides keep the price of XRP within a descending wedge that has yet to confirm a bullish reversal.
Whales are reducing while key holder groups resist pressure.
Whale activities show a clear shift towards caution.
Wallets holding 100 million - 1 billion XRP reduced their balances from 8.32 billion to 8.27 billion, starting from December 7. Another group holding 10 - 100 million XRP cut their supply from 11.01 billion to 10.99 billion on December 8. Together, they dumped about 70 million XRP over the past 48 hours, worth approximately $143 million at the current price.
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Selling is not dramatic in terms of tokens, but it comes at a sensitive moment - exactly when XRP is trying to stabilize. This selling pressure helps explain why every attempt to break out has stalled before gaining momentum.
The counterforce comes from short- and medium-term holders, which is clearly evident in the HODL waves. HODL waves track the amount of XRP held in each 'currency age group', showing how long tokens remain inactive.
The one to three-month group increased from 8.52% to 10.31%. The three to six-month group rose from 9.40% to 10.87%.
These holders usually collect tokens when they believe that the selling pressure is retreating. Their purchase during a monthly drop of 10% indicates that they expect the wedge structure to eventually resolve in favor of an upward movement.
Thus, XRP sits in a clear dynamic of push and pull: whales are selling on one side, and active buyers are accumulating on the other side.
This tension keeps the price of XRP within the same tight structure.
The price pattern of XRP shows a state of stagnation as buyers and sellers pull in opposite directions.
XRP forms a descending wedge, a pattern that typically favors bullish reversals - but only if buyers can enforce a decisive breakout. Currently, the wedge acts more as a state of stagnation, as whale selling hinders momentum and prevents token holders from deep declines.
The breakout point is near $2.46, where the descending trendline meets the current price action. XRP needs to close strongly above this level on a daily basis to confirm a reversal. If that happens, the bullish targets stand at $2.61, $2.83, and $3.11.
While prices trade between $2.31 and $1.98, the wedge remains valid. However, breaking below $1.98 weakens the pattern and exposes $1.82, a level that previously served as structural support earlier in the cycle.
Currently, the outlook is simple: whale selling delays the explosion. Accumulation in the medium term maintains the market structure.
