Brothers, I am Mig
I always feel that the market is not right, and the news is even more turbulent! I know you are most concerned about the pullback after SOL's surge last night and how the market will move forward.
Don't panic, let's break this down; this is not only a technical battle but also an information war.
In-depth analysis of the news: This is not an ordinary interest rate cut; it is a 'political game', focused on two core points:
The expectation of 'easing': What the market is really watching is whether the Federal Reserve will hint at the start of a new 'bond purchase program' after the meeting. If easing occurs, global liquidity will flood, and high-risk assets like SOL will ignite like dry tinder; if not, then expectations will be dashed, and good news will turn into bad.
Unprecedented internal division: nearly half of the FOMC opposes the interest rate cut, a rare scene in decades. What does this indicate? It shows that the Federal Reserve's decision-making is no longer pure and is filled with political tug-of-war.
This uncertainty is the poison of the market, and the source of panic! It means that future policies may swing wildly, and sharp rises and falls will become the norm.
Technical analysis: look at the chart, not just for the excitement, but for the insights.
Look at our four-hour chart, I have drawn the key positions for you:
Where is the sword pointing above: 145 is the short-term resistance level, 150 is the psychological barrier. If we break through, the sea is vast.
Where is the cliff underfoot: 137.96 is the first moat, breaking below here weakens the short-term momentum. 135 is the second defense line, 131 is strong support. And 127... that's the grave line for bulls; when it reaches here, confidence will be lost.
The current MACD golden cross is above the 0 axis, and there is volume, indicating that the bulls still have strength. But remember, all technical indicators may fail instantly in the face of major news!
Mig's view: Midnight market, the script may unfold like this.
I judge that it won't be calm at midnight. Two extreme trends:
Aggressive scenario (40% probability): The Federal Reserve releases dovish signals, SOL stands firmly at 140, then gathers strength to hit 145, and even touches 150. This is a bull rally.
Panic scenario (60% probability): The Federal Reserve takes a conservative stance, and internal disputes are magnified. The market interprets it as 'no milk to drink', and funds instantly seek safety. SOL could quickly drop below 137, directly testing 135, even 131. Once 131 cannot hold, market panic will become self-fulfilling, and a crash will head straight for 127!
I am more inclined to remind everyone to be cautious of the second scenario. Because the market has already digested the interest rate cut expectations in advance, and 'political division' and 'not flooding the market' are the real black swans.
What should retail investors do? Mig sends you the most hardcore survival rules.
Don't ask 'should I buy or sell', first ask yourself 'how to survive'!
For those with positions: check your positions immediately! The stop-loss line must be moved up to below 135. This is not to make you sell, but to let you sleep peacefully. Always protect your profits.
For those wanting to bottom fish: abandon the fantasy of 'a one-time shot'! If it drops near 135, test it with a small position. If you really see 131, then consider adding 10%. Remember, always keep your average cost below the psychological defense line of most market participants.
For those watching with no positions: you are the smartest. The best action tonight is to not open any positions, grab a chair and watch the show. Wait until Powell speaks at 3:30 AM, and then we can strategize based on the market direction. Missing out is not a loss, making a wrong move is a bloodbath.
I speak frankly: the long-term trend for SOL is not stable; if this surge fails and breaks below 127, the next support might be at 120. This is not to scare you, but to make you wake up. However, if it stabilizes above 140 in the short term, reaching 150 is not a dream.
The market is always a battle between bulls and bears, so be prepared for both scenarios in your mind.
I am not a god, but I will always accompany you in finding a way to survive in the market. If you also think this 'technical + news' analysis is useful, follow Mig, I analyze the market daily in the village, helping you avoid pitfalls and seize opportunities.
Tonight after the Federal Reserve's decision, I will interpret it in the village and chat room immediately, telling you directly whether to buy or run from SOL.
