Standard Chartered has significantly lowered its price forecast for Bitcoin, cutting the target price for the end of 2025 from the original $200,000 to $100,000, and delaying the optimistic long-term view of Bitcoin rising to $500,000 by two years to 2030. Standard Chartered emphasized that this is not a bearish view on Bitcoin but a recalibration of market rhythms, and the long-term structural bullish perspective remains intact.
In a research report released on December 9, Standard Chartered's Head of Global Digital Assets Research, Geoffrey Kendrick, admitted that recent price trends 'forced us to readjust our original forecasts.' Nevertheless, he noted that since hitting a historical high in October, Bitcoin has retreated about 36% to $80,500, and this level of correction, when compared to the historical performance following the launch of Bitcoin spot ETFs in the United States, is still considered 'normal range.'
Geoffrey Kendrick wrote, 'Our previous short-term targets were incorrect,' adding, 'We still firmly believe that Bitcoin will eventually rise to $500,000.'
According to the updated forecast path, Standard Chartered now expects Bitcoin to rise to $100,000 by the end of 2025; $150,000 by 2026; $225,000 by 2027; $300,000 by 2028; $400,000 by 2029; and then $500,000 by 2030.
This is clearly a significant reset compared to previous forecasts (i.e., $200,000 in 2025, and $500,000 in 2028).
This correction also symbolizes a significant turnaround in Standard Chartered's series of bullish remarks over the past few months. Looking back to July this year, Standard Chartered reiterated its target of $200,000 by the end of 2025, citing reasons including ETF fund inflows, corporate asset allocation demands, and favorable policy conditions; even more recently, Standard Chartered believed that if positive political and economic developments continue, Bitcoin is very likely to 'never' fall below $100,000 again.
Corporate buying has cooled off.
Geoffrey Kendrick explained that the core of this forecast adjustment lies in the shift of 'demand drivers.'
He believes that since the approval of the U.S. spot ETF, the two main forces driving Bitcoin's rise have been ETF fund inflows and corporate buying from digital asset reserve companies, including Strategy and several Bitcoin mining companies.
Now, he believes that the second force has almost exhausted.
Standard Chartered's basic scenario assumes that 'DAT companies' Bitcoin buying has come to an end,' because the indicator 'mNAV,' which measures corporate market values relative to holding values, can no longer support companies in aggressively expanding their balance sheets.
With the overall mNAV declining, and Strategy's mNAV even falling below 1.0 for the first time since 2023, Geoffrey Kendrick expects that the market will witness a wave of mergers among small DAT companies, rather than a new wave of DAT companies frantically buying up assets.
Notably, this does not mean that large holding companies will sell off massively. For example, Strategy's average cost of Bitcoin is about $74,000, and they remain 'substantially in profit,' and referring to the last cycle, even if prices fall below cost, the company has never sold.
Therefore, Standard Chartered's latest model assumes 'no further DAT net buying in the future,' with only ETF bringing in about 200,000 Bitcoins net inflow per quarter, which has previously pushed prices to new highs but has now become the only structural demand pillar.
In response to market concerns that this correction means a 'new round of crypto winter' is approaching, Geoffrey Kendrick explicitly denied this view. Although the last peak occurred about 18 months after the halving in April 2024, which aligns with past cycles, he believes that the factors truly driving prices have changed.
ETFs replace halving cycles and become price leaders.
The report pointed out: 'With the emergence of ETF buying, we believe that the Bitcoin halving cycle is no longer the main price driver. Long-term ETF buyers are the more crucial force.'
After analyzing ETF and corporate holding data, Standard Chartered found that previous quarterly cumulative buying phases of 250,000, 450,000, and 250,000 Bitcoins almost all coincided with significant price surges, corresponding to March 2024, early 2025, and July 2025 respectively.
In contrast, the historical high reached on October 6, 2025, occurred when quarterly buying fell to about 160,000 Bitcoins, which has now further shrunk to about 50,000 Bitcoins, marking a new low since the launch of Bitcoin spot ETFs in the U.S.
In this context, Geoffrey Kendrick described the recent decline as 'the calm before the storm' rather than a structural collapse. However, he also reminded that the current market structure exposes Bitcoin's short-term trend, which is highly reliant on ETF fund flows.
Structural bullish sentiment remains unchanged.
Even with a comprehensive downgrade of mid-term figures, Standard Chartered's long-term stance on Bitcoin remains clearly bullish, and the argument is no longer just about 'cycles' but about 'asset allocation logic.'
Standard Chartered's model compared a theoretical 'Bitcoin-Gold' investment portfolio with current market values, concluding that global investment portfolios are still severely under-allocated to Bitcoin.
Based on historical volatility estimates, the theoretically optimal allocation ratio is '12% Bitcoin, 88% Gold'; however, based on current market values, the actual allocation is only about '5% Bitcoin, 95% Gold'.
If using the implied volatility assumptions of the past three months, the optimal Bitcoin allocation ratio could even rise to 20%; if both current implied volatilities are considered, Bitcoin's share could reach as high as 36%, indicating that the long-term potential upside still has about 7 times room for growth.
Geoffrey Kendrick admitted that the timing of this portfolio shift was 'difficult to predict,' and the process may be slower than expected after the decline in DAT demand. However, he still believes that with the popularity of ETFs and more investment committees formally including digital assets in their investment charters, the actual allocation ratios will gradually converge towards theoretical values.
The report reiterates Standard Chartered's view: the crypto winter has become a thing of the past. Bitcoin, as a hedge against banking pressures and U.S. Treasury risks (including political pressures on the Federal Reserve and concerns over future overly accommodative policies), retains a solid structural role.
Geoffrey Kendrick ultimately admitted that he 'misjudged the timing, but not the direction,' summarizing that:
We have downgraded our price forecasts for before 2029 and extended the forecast horizon to 2030, expecting Bitcoin to reach $500,000 by then.
"Bitcoin's end-of-year target of $200,000 is hopeless! Standard Chartered has halved the target price to $100,000" this article was first published in (Blockcast).
