After a sudden surge of 10%, is the market suddenly "shutting down"? No, this is the calm before the storm. The charts clearly show that a "final showdown" that will determine the fate of the coming weeks is about to break out at the $3400 mark. The main force has pressed the pause button here; is it the madness before the "hanging man" or a second takeoff after "in-flight refueling"? Please stay calm, in-depth analysis begins now.
Core Summary: A long-planned charge signal
After Ethereum's daily line surged 10.51%, the momentum suddenly changed. Multi-timeframe charts reveal the truth: the long-term (daily/4-hour) charge signal is loud, while the short-term (1-hour/15-minute) enters tactical adjustment. This is not the end of the rise, but rather the most precise ammunition supply and formation adjustment before a full-scale attack on the "Mount Everest" at $3400. Core instruction: abandon the fantasy of chasing highs, greedily buy low in the "charge initiation zone" at $3280-$3300.
Market Background: FOMO emotions are secretly growing
When the daily increase exceeds 10%, the market has quietly crossed the boundary of 'rational bullishness' and entered the realm of 'emotion-driven' fields. Macroeconomic narratives, technical upgrades, and other benefits have all become fuel for igniting FOMO (fear of missing out) emotions. It is important to be cautious: the most lucrative first segment of profits has been seized, and the upcoming market will test rhythm and patience even more. High volatility is the clear sign of risk and the secret signal of opportunity.
Cycle resonance analysis: Trend, adjustments, and the eve of the total attack
Real traders must understand the market's secret language across different time dimensions.
· Daily line (strategic level - marshal's perspective): Upward trend, indisputable. Massive long阳 (volume 156.71K) has established absolute advantage, targeting the previous high of $3398.66. The marshal orders: trend is king.
· 4 hours (campaign level - general's perspective): Upward trend, but troops are at the gates. Camp below the key city (3398.66) for the final strength adjustment. The general is waiting for the signal to attack.
· 1 hour/15 minutes (tactical level - scout perspective): Sideways fluctuation, an eerily quiet stillness. Volatility contracts sharply (0.9%-3%), which is a suffocating calm unique to the battlefield before large-scale movement. Scout report: The enemy's defense line is right in front, and our soldiers are sharpening their knives.
⚔️ Bull and Bear Battlefield Troop Deployment Map
Time dimension Current Price (¥) Battlefield Status Our Defense Line (Support) Enemy Fortress (Resistance) Battlefield Visibility (Volatility)
Daily line 3308.97 ✅ Comprehensive Attack 2719.43 (Base Camp) 3398.66 (Core Fortress) 24.7%
4 hours 3308.97 ✅ Frontier Assembly 3075.25 (Advance Base) 3398.66 (Same Fortress) 10.4%
1 hour 3308.97 ⏸️ Pre-battle Silence 3285.04 (Trench) 3388.00 (Outer Works) 3%
15 minutes 3308.97 ⏸️ Absolute Silence 3288.30 (Scattered Troops Pit) 3316.36 (Forward Watchtower) 0.9%
Death price level: Two lines that the entire market is watching
· 🎯 Bear's 'Stalingrad': $3398.66. This is the ultimate pressure point resonating between the daily and 4-hour cycles. Historical trapped positions and technical bears are all gathered here. Breaking through here means a complete collapse of the technical side, and a bear stampede will trigger a nonlinear surge.
· 🛡️ Bullish 'beachhead': $3280-$3300 area. This is the lower edge of the short-term fluctuation box and is the lifeline for maintaining the current strong consolidation pattern. Hold here, and the upward continuation structure remains perfect.
· ⚠️ Last warning line: $3075. If this level breaks, it means this round of upward attack may just be a 'false breakthrough,' and the market will fall into deep correction.
Volume password: Daily massive volume increase (main force building positions), short cycle low volume consolidation (retail investors waiting). The classic 'increase - volume contraction' healthy model indicates that floating chips have been cleaned, and the main force's control has increased.
Iron-blooded risk control: The rules for surviving in fervor
1. Position is attitude: This is by no means an All-in place. It is recommended to use no more than 15% of total troops, adopting a batch tactic of 'vanguard probing, main force following.'
2. Stop-loss is life: Always leave room for the market to make mistakes. Your stop-loss must be set below the key support in a tactical manner.
· Aggressive Vanguard: $3270 (below 1-hour support).
· Steady main force: $3050 (below 4-hour support).
3. Risk-reward ratio as strategy: Entering at this position, you must aim for a space looking towards $3600+ after breaking through $3400; otherwise, this trade has no strategic value. If the risk-reward ratio is below 2:1, please abandon it.
Three-dimensional combat plan (targeting different troops)
🎖️ Main Force Plan (steady trend faction)
· Tactics: In the $3280-$3300 'launch area', establish core bullish positions in three batches.
· Retreat Order (stop-loss): $3050 (front line collapses, preserve main force).
· Strategic Goal 1: $3400 (take the fortress, reduce positions by 1/3 to lock in profits).
· Strategic Goal 2: $3600-$3800 (expand results, move stop-loss above cost price, let profits run).
⚡ Strike Team Plan (breakthrough pursuit faction)
· Attack signal: Price with volume (significantly higher than the average volume during the consolidation period) strongly breaks through $3400.
· Tactics: Invest rapid response troops when pulling back to the $3390-$3400 area.
· Retreat Order: $3350 (breakthrough failure, exit quickly).
· Target: Directly rush to the $3500-$3550 short-term target area.
🕵️ Scout Plan (for short-term experts only)
· Tactics: Conduct guerilla warfare with high selling and low buying within the $3285-$3388 large box.
· Warning: This mission has a high danger factor; be sure to converge towards the main force direction at the first moment of box break.
Future simulation: Two entirely different world lines
· World Line A (Probability 70%): Energy buildup breakthrough, starting the main rise
· Path: Complete handover in the $3280-$3400 range → Volume break through $3400 → Pull back for confirmation → Accelerate rise towards $3600-$3800.
· Your action: Hold low-position chips and let profits run after a breakthrough.
· World Line B (Probability 30%): False breakthrough, deep correction
· Path: Multiple attacks on $3400 fail → Break below $3280 support → Test $3075 or even lower support downwards.
· Your action: Strictly execute stop-loss, shift to wait-and-see, and wait for new stabilization signals.
Ultimate warning and gift
Disclaimer: All simulations above are based on the probability game of historical data. The only certainty in the market is its uncertainty. Your funds are your only soldiers; please cherish each one.
The last true word:
The market gives you an opportunity to 'get on board' after a 10% surge, which is both the biggest trap and the biggest gift. The trap is that you might buy at a short-term peak; the gift is that you are still at the starting point of a long-term trend. The difference lies in whether you have a scientific entry plan, ironclad stop-loss discipline, and enough patience. Now, it is time to make your choice.
