🚨 Alert! Ethereum's main event showdown night, could there be a 'golden pit' tonight?
A strange phenomenon is unfolding on the Ethereum chart: the daily line 📈 stubbornly rises by 4.79%, as if the bull market has never left; but the 4-hour chart 📉 coldly declines by 4.61%, revealing a bone-chilling coldness. This extreme multi-timeframe divergence is not a coincidence! It indicates that the main funds are fiercely rotating at a critical position, and a decisive 'showdown' has already begun - is it the 'golden pit' of a bull market pullback, or the 'mass grave' of a trend reversal? The answer lies in the K-line over the next 24 hours...
⚔️ Ethereum's ultimate choice: a showdown between the main force's 'clear cards' and how retail investors seize opportunities.
💎 Core summary (30-second overview)
Ethereum current price 3234, hanging in a dangerous 'air corridor'. Above is the 3448 iron ceiling guarded by heavy short positions; below is the life zone 3145-3185 fiercely defended by bulls. The 'decency' of the daily and the 'cruelty' of the 4-hour are tearing fiercely. Our core conclusion is: this is not a fluctuation, but a troop deployment before the decisive battle. For traders, the only wise choice is: hold your breath, wait for the main force to reveal its cards first, and then make a fatal strike the moment the gun goes off.
🌪️ Market background: 'Silent Hill' in the eye of the storm
The current market is in a strange 'high volatility calm period'. The daily 17.5% volatility is like a volcano that is smoking, while the price is wriggling in a narrow range. This is by no means tranquility, but all big funds are holding their breath, waiting for a trigger signal. The neutral sentiment index is the biggest lie, masking the silent struggle of billions of funds on both sides.
🔍 Multi-period perspective: discovering the main force's 'split personality' script
Let us dissect this grand play from multiple time dimensions:
· Daily framework (‘The Last Decency’): The trend is still marked as ‘upward’, 2908 is the bottom line written at the end of the script. However, the upward momentum has shown signs of fatigue, requiring a victory with volume to boost morale.
· 4-hour framework (‘Cruel Reality’): It has completely entered a 'downward trend'. 3145 is the ultimate target of the bears' attack, while 3448 is their unbreakable steel defense line. 8.9% volatility means that any movement here could lead to bloodshed.
· 1-hour/15-minute framework (‘Breathing in the Trench’): Extreme sideways! Price is compressed in a narrow trench between 3233 - 3273. This is the moment for soldiers to check their ammunition before the general assault; the next signal will determine the battle.
🆘 Core discovery: the market is staging a classic 'trend confrontation'. The daily wants to rise, while the 4-hour wants to fall. In such times, whoever wins, we follow. And the crucial hands are in the following two key areas.
🎯 Life and death price level decoding: treasures and traps are buried here
🧭 Core battlefield map
Time frame Bull trench (support) Bear fortress (resistance) Life and death significance
Ultra-short-term battlefield 3233.08 3264.34 Today's crucial hand, break through for short-term direction
Short-term battlefield 3185.00 3273.33 1-hour level bull-bear dividing line
Battlefield level 3145.01 3448.00 The ultimate goal of this showdown!
Strategic battlefield 2908.00 3448.00 Bull market life and death line, touching it means a logical change
3145-3185 area: this is a position the bulls must not lose. Once the closing price of the 4-hour chart falls below 3145, it means the bears have achieved victory in the battle, and the price will likely slide towards 2908 for a strategic showdown.
3448: This is the bears' 'Maginot Line', and also the only key for the bulls to open a new chapter. A volume breakout here will define all fluctuations as washouts, and the sky will be the limit.
📊 Volume tells you the truth
Volume structure (15 min/683 → daily/159.88K) reveals secrets:
1. Healthy long-term foundation: continuous volume increase at the daily level indicates that the 'fundamentals' of the big trend remain solid.
2. Dangerous short-term stagnation: 4-hour decline with volume (33.99K), rebound but without volume, indicating that the selling pressure is real, while buying is still waiting. Beware of the rebound becoming a 'trap to lure buyers'!
🛡️ Risk control iron rule: Surviving is the only way to see tomorrow
On the eve of a 'high-risk' turning point, risk control is your bulletproof vest:
1. Position: Any probing attack must not exceed 5% of total funds.
2. Stop loss: must be set! Set it immediately! The stop loss should be placed outside critical price levels, allowing the market a certain 'noise space'.
3. Mindset: Give up the fantasy of ‘bottom fishing and top guessing’; you are just a soldier waiting for a signal.
⚔️ Three sets of combat plans: responding to three possible futures
Plan A: [Eagle派抄底] Aggressive and dangerous (only for experienced traders)
· Battle machine: price pulls back to the 3185-3200 area, and a clear stop-loss candlestick formation appears in the 1-hour chart (like a long lower shadow).
· Action: Light position (50% planned position) to test long.
· Retreat line: 3140 (break below the key position, immediately concede).
· Attack targets: first target 3273, second target 3448.
Plan B: [Lion派突破] Steady and powerful (recommended for most traders)
· Battle machine: price breaks through and stabilizes at 3273 (1-hour resistance).
· Action: Standard position (70% planned position) to chase long.
· Retreat line: 3230 (breakout and retest without breaking).
· Attack target: 3448.
Plan C: [Fox派观望] Wisdom after breaking position
· Trigger: price breaks below 3145 and confirms.
· Action: All long positions exit unconditionally, transitioning to full observation. Do not easily short, patiently wait for price reactions around 2908. The trend may have changed!
🔮 Future projection: two paths, light and thorns
· Path one (bull victory): stabilize above 3185, break through 3273 with volume after fluctuation, then gather strength for an all-out attack on 3448. If successful, the mid-term target points to ¥.3800+.
· Path two (bear rampage): losing the 3145 position, price drops rapidly, testing the 3000 psychological barrier, ultimately besieging 2908. If lost again, the bull market script will be completely rewritten.
⚠️ Final ultimatum and survival rules
Disclaimer: The market is a cold game of probabilities; this article is your intelligence map, not a guarantee of victory. Every decision you make concerns real money, please take full responsibility.
The final survival rule:
Now, forget all speculations. Your task list has only two items:
1. Focus on two points: 3145 (support), 3273 (resistance).
2. Execute an action: when the price effectively breaks through one side, fire in that direction.
Before the main force reveals its cards, lie low and hide well. When the general assault's horn sounds, strike decisively, then let the profits run.
