October 10th, Wednesday Afternoon Operation Strategy
Tonight's highlight in the crypto circle is definitely the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision in December. Bitcoin is currently fluctuating around 92441. The technical aspect leans bullish, but the variables in the news directly determine the subsequent trend. The market has already priced in a 25 basis point rate cut, but the real key lies in Powell's speech and policy statement—if there are dovish hints for continued easing, Bitcoin is likely to surge directly to 95000 or even touch 100000; if there are hawkish remarks indicating a pause in rate cuts, the price will quickly retrace to the 90000 support, or even test 88000. Additionally, today, BTC ETF saw a net inflow of 379 million USD in a single day, accumulating over 839 million in December, with institutional funds still entering the market, which provides confidence for a medium-term bullish outlook.
Looking at the 4H chart: The middle band of the Bollinger Bands at 90973 is solidly supporting the price, and the MACD golden cross red bars are still expanding. After a rise to 94550 in the early morning, it has pulled back, indicating that 94000-95000 is a strong resistance zone, while 91500-92000 serves as a short-term strong support.
Bullish Strategy
Pre-decision dip buying: Buy in batches when the price retraces to the 91500-92000 range, with a stop loss set below 91000. This position is the upper edge of the previous consolidation platform and a key defensive line for bulls.
Post-decision chasing long: If the Federal Reserve turns dovish, and Bitcoin breaks through 93500 with volume, go long directly, initially targeting 94800, and after breaking through, aim for 97300 or even the 100000 mark.
Bearish Strategy
Do not actively short before the decision: Both mid-term funding and technicals are leaning bullish, and the risk of counter-trend shorting is too high.
Post-decision short attempt: Only if Powell releases hawkish signals and Bitcoin effectively breaks below the 90500 MA20 moving average, should a small position be attempted to short, with a stop loss set above 91000, targeting 89600.
