As someone who has been watching the global cryptocurrency market for 12 years, I must speak frankly today: behind the surge in gold prices lies a risk logic that you dare not think deeply about, and this pattern has never had exceptions throughout history!
Let's get straight to the hard facts, and break down the underlying code of the two super bull markets in gold — all tied to crises! In 1971, gold surged from $40 to $850, right in the middle of the global financial turmoil of 1974; the other bull market that started in 2001 is even more straightforward, as the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis directly 'hit the gas' on gold prices, driving it from $250 to $1920. I'm not exaggerating, this is no coincidence! It's clearly the inevitability of capital seeking safety — gold has never been a 'bull market indicator,' but rather a 'crisis barometer'!
What makes me most vigilant now is the situation of the USD. This thing is like standing on the edge of a cliff; the script of a drastic devaluation similar to 1971 is not a fantasy, especially if a certain understanding king returns to the White House, the long-term decline of the USD is basically a done deal. The current surge in gold prices is essentially preemptively consuming the 'expectations of USD devaluation'—this tactic is exactly the same as the 'expectation speculation' in crypto! When the real good news lands (the USD plunges), it’s very likely to play out as 'buying expectations and selling facts,' so a correction wouldn’t be surprising.
The more crucial point has arrived; don’t think that gold will definitely rise just because a crisis has come! I have reviewed the previous two crises: if a black swan suddenly appears, in the days prior, everyone will panic and sell everything to switch to cash, and gold will most likely get hammered (refer to the early stages of the 2008 subprime crisis where gold fell before rising). But as long as the crisis hasn't ended, gold will definitely reach new highs afterwards—this is a hard and fast rule, no exceptions!
So my core view is very clear: never blindly chase highs! What you need to do now is not to bet on gold rising to 3000 USD, but to understand its position in the trend. When a crisis comes, it's not just gold that has opportunities; quality crypto assets and commodities will also drop to 'cabbage prices.' There's no need to stubbornly stick to one track.
What is the most practical operation? Accumulate more 'ammunition' (capital)! Don't throw all your money into the hype, or when the real bottom comes, you'll only watch others pick up bargains while you suffer losses—that's akin to hoarding coins before a bull market in the crypto circle; opportunities are for those who are prepared!
I can't say that the crisis will come tomorrow, but the crazier the gold price rises, the louder the alarm bells ring in my heart—this is not alarmism, but an intuition built over 12 years in the market. I will keep an eye on the USD trends and global liquidity for these key signals, and I will update everyone as soon as there’s any sign of change, because after all, we are playing for the long term, not gambling on highs and lows!
If you think what I said is practical, give me a follow so you don’t get lost~ Next time we’ll talk about the linkage opportunities between crypto and gold; I promise there will be even more valuable insights than this time! Remember: those who chase highs are all 'sucker investors,' while those who accumulate good ammunition are the 'bargain hunters.' See you in the comments!
