The Underlying Game of the Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Meeting: Why is Powell Reluctant to Provide a 'Clear Answer'?

The core logic of this week's Federal Reserve interest rate meeting is fundamentally a game between 'policy balancing' and 'market expectation divergence,' hiding two layers of key competition behind it:

For Powell, the current core demand is 'to control expectations rather than send signals.' If he clearly releases a signal for interest rate cuts, it may seem to give the market a 'response,' but it could trigger excessive optimism about subsequent easing—especially as there are still divergences within the Federal Reserve regarding the stickiness of inflation and the resilience of the economy. Prematurely setting the tone could constrain policy flexibility. Therefore, he prefers to maintain 'ambiguity,' neither completely denying the possibility of rate cuts nor providing a clear timeline, essentially using 'cautious balance' to avoid market expectations becoming unmoored.

For the market, what is most desired is 'a clear policy path.' Interestingly, the current market has already seen 'dual anchor points': on one hand, Powell, as the current chair, still holds short-term weight, directly influencing immediate capital reactions; on the other hand, core officials referred to by the market as 'shadow chairs' (such as Bullard, Williams, etc.) have previously released signals leaning towards easing, becoming important references for the market's long-term expectations.

If at this meeting Powell continues with 'ambiguous statements' and does not provide clear guidance on interest rate cuts, the market's 'expectation gap' is likely to trigger short-term volatility—after all, capital is eager to follow the 'shadow chairs' easing expectations while also wary of ignoring the current chair's policy steadfastness, and this contradiction will exacerbate the long and short game. Ultimately, the underlying logic of all this is the Federal Reserve's dilemma between 'anti-inflation' and 'stabilizing the economy,' as well as the inevitable conflict between the market's 'demand for certainty' and the policy's 'need for flexibility.' $BTC $ETH #加密市场反弹 #美联储FOMC会议 #比特币VS代币化黄金 #美SEC推动加密创新监管 #美联储重启降息步伐