📢 Historical Moment! The Federal Reserve's Major Decision Tonight: Hawkish Rate Cut Approaches, Unprecedented Internal Division!

At 3 AM Beijing time on Thursday, global markets hold their breath — the Federal Reserve is about to announce its interest rate decision. The market generally bets on a third consecutive rate cut of 25 basis points, with rates possibly dropping to 3.5%-3.75%.

But this is far from an ordinary rate cut.

The Federal Reserve is currently caught in a "serious split":

One side worries about worsening employment and demands further rate cuts;

The other side is wary of inflation rebounding and believes that easing has reached its limit.

Thus, a key concept emerges: "Hawkish Rate Cut" —

Cutting rates while hinting "this may be the last time in the near future."

🔍 Four Key Focuses for Tonight:

1️⃣ What will Powell say?

The post-meeting statement and press conference will be key to interpreting future policies. Goldman Sachs expects the wording to possibly return to cautious phrases like "the magnitude and timing of further adjustments" — which means the threshold for another rate cut has significantly increased.

2️⃣ Dot Plot and Internal Voting

The "dot plot" reflecting officials' interest rate forecasts will be updated. This vote may see multiple dissenting votes:

· Kansas City Fed President George is expected to vote against again;

· Over one-third of economists believe St. Louis Fed President Bullard will also oppose, citing concerns over inflation;

· Governor Waller may call for a 50 basis point cut, continuing the previous "dovish dissent."

3️⃣ Economic Data and Inflation Dilemma

Although September's Core PCE inflation slightly fell to 2.8%, it remains significantly above the 2% target. Meanwhile, the employment market shows signs of fatigue: job openings decreased in October, and layoffs increased.

4️⃣ Could the Balance Sheet Shift?

In addition to interest rates, the Federal Reserve may send another signal: restarting bond purchases (though the scale won't be termed "quantitative easing"). In October, they just announced stopping "balance sheet reduction", and now, due to market funding pressures, the purchasing plan may restart.

💎 Summary: This is Unusual

Cutting rates while tightening expectations — the Federal Reserve is walking a tightrope. The market has partially priced this in, but if the "last rate cut" is confirmed, it may trigger a repricing. $BTC Can it leverage this momentum? $ETH How will the trend continue? The P♥UPP♥IES on the Ethereum chain, due to the community's continuous building, still have great potential! $ZEC

What signal do you think the Federal Reserve will send? #加密市场观察