$BTC REMINDER: FOMC RATE CUT DECISION IS COMING TODAY AT 2 | 04Crypto on Binance Square

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$BTC REMINDER: 
FOMC RATE CUT DECISION IS COMING TODAY AT 2 P.M. ET.
EXPECT HIGH VOLATILITY!$ETH 

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Initial thoughts after the Fed press conference First, the Fed is clearly more divided now. Three members disagreed with this rate cut. Austan Goolsbee from Chicago and Jeffrey Schmid from Kansas City wanted no cut. Stephen Miran wanted a deeper cut of 0.5. The other 9 members supported the 0.25 cut that we just saw. This tells us the easing path will be choppy, not a smooth one way move. Second, Jerome Powell almost removed the scenario of hiking again. He said that next year rates can stay the same, go down a little, or go down more, depending on data. But his key line was that he does not think a rate increase is the base case for anyone. In practice, the ceiling of this hiking cycle is likely done. The only debate now is how fast the cuts come. Third, the Fed believes policy is now around the high end of neutral. Neutral here means a rate that balances support for jobs and control of inflation. Powell also admitted that recent job data might be overstated by about 60,000 jobs per month. That means the labor market is softer than the headline numbers suggest. Fourth, external themes like AI and tariffs are not the main drivers in the policy model yet. On AI, Powell gave no clear policy view. He only said AI can both destroy some jobs and raise productivity, output, and corporate profits. On tariffs, he sees the effect as a one time shock. Tariffs can push inflation a little higher into around the first quarter of 2026, then inflation should stabilize and continue its downward trend. So the Fed does not see tariffs as a reason to restart hikes. Fifth, the new Treasury bill purchase plan is not a fresh round of full scale QE. The Fed will buy about 40 billion US dollars of short term government bills. The main goal is to keep bank reserves and the repo market stable. Powell stressed that this is not a big liquidity injection for risk assets. The program will end once bank reserves are judged to be sufficient. $BTC $ETH $SOL

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$SOL USDT – aggressive long scalp idea Entry zone 129.5 to 131.5 Stop loss 127.8 Take profit 136.0 then 140.0, final 145.0 What I see. SOL has just flushed from 142 to 128 on strong sell volume and is now printing the first small bounce around 129 to 131. The last 15m candles show a tiny higher low at 128.9 and MA7 is starting to curl up under price, while selling volume is fading. MACD on 15m is trying to cross back above zero, which usually gives a short relief leg even inside a downtrend. For me this is not a trend reversal, it is a volatility bounce. I treat it as a quick long with tight invalidation at 127.8. If that level breaks I am out immediately. Size small, respect your stop and manage risk; this kind of trade pays well only for disciplined scalpers.$SOL

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ETHUSDT long idea Entry 3,160 to 3,220 Stop loss 3,080 Targets 3,320 then 3,420, extended 3,500 Why I like this dip. ETH just slammed down from 3,447 after a vertical run, but price is now pulling back right into the 4h support cluster around the 25 and 99 MAs, roughly 3,150 to 3,200. That is the first real retest of the breakout zone from 3,000, not a broken uptrend. Volume on the sell-off is strong but not climactic, and candles are starting to leave wicks on the downside, showing buyers are defending this area instead of panicking out. MACD is cooling from overbought, but still hovering near the positive zone, which usually gives one more push if support holds. For me, as long as ETH stays above 3,080 on a 4h close, this is a controlled pullback inside an uptrend, not the start of a crash. Below that level, I am wrong on the idea and step aside, because it would mean the structure has shifted back to lower lows.$ETH

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$BTC BTCUSDT short plan Entry 90,800 to 91,600 Stop loss 92,600 Targets 88,800 then 87,400, extension 85,800 Rationale. BTC just printed a sharp rejection from 94,500, with a strong red 4h candle wiping out the whole prior push up, which tells me buyers were fully absorbed at the top. Price is now trading back below the 7 and 25 moving averages in the 4h frame, both starting to bend down, turning the 91k zone into fresh resistance rather than support. The bounce back into 91k was done on weaker volume than the selloff, so it looks more like a relief bounce into supply than the start of a new leg up. Below, there is a clean liquidity pocket around 88k to 87k, matching previous low and demand area, which is a natural magnet if sellers keep control. Invalidation. If BTC can reclaim and hold above 92,600 on a 4h close, I would step aside from the short idea, because that would signal buyers are strong enough to try another test of 94k and higher.

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