Brothers, I am Mig.
Did you all catch that surge in BTC last night? But don't rush in; keep your eyes wide open and see clearly — after a spike, a big shake often follows.
I'll start with the conclusion: I am bullish today, but I won't let you chase now!
News: Tonight is not just about interest rate cuts, but a 'liquidity revolution'.
Let me tell you what to focus on regarding the news at 3 AM, and why it's a nuclear bomb:
Interest rate cut of 25 basis points: This is already a given; the market has already digested it, don't expect it to drive a big surge on its own.
The real 'game changer' — 'balance sheet expansion signal': this is the key to tonight's outcome. The Federal Reserve may announce the restart of buying short-term government bonds. This essentially means restarting the 'money printing machine,' injecting USD liquidity directly into the market.
What does it mean for the crypto world? A rising tide lifts all boats. How did the epic bull market after March 2020 come about? The core is the Federal Reserve's unlimited monetary easing. If a clear signal of balance sheet expansion is issued tonight, it will greatly boost global risk assets' confidence; BTC breaking through the 100,000 test will not be a dream.
Where is the huge risk? 'Buy the expectation, sell the fact.' If the signals do not meet expectations, or if Powell's speech is 'hawkish', then huge disappointment could trigger a stampede of profit-taking. This is the basis of what I call 'creating a bit of panic'—expectations are too consistent, often leading to problems.
Technical Perspective: Is it 'mid-air refueling' or 'the last gasp of a strong bow'?
Look at the four-hour chart, it's very clear:
Bullish Command: The MACD yellow and white lines are above the 0-axis, and the golden cross is still there, this is the stronghold of the bulls. However, the upward momentum is weak and is in a pullback.
Two Lifeline Levels: Intra-day, you must closely monitor 91500 and 90800 as these two support levels. If they hold, it indicates a healthy pullback, and there is a high probability of accumulating strength to break through the pressure range of 94500-96000 later.
Critical Operation Zone: If it reaches 94500-96000, remember, this is the area of 'bulls reducing positions, bears testing'. You can take a light position to bet on a pullback, with a stop loss placed slightly above the previous high. As for the monthly level dream pressure point of 100,000, I tell you, if it gets to that position, don't hesitate, it will be one of the best medium-term short layout points in the coming months.
What should retail investors do? Mig's survival rules
Listen up, this is not advice, it's a survival guide:
For those with existing positions:
If it stabilizes above 91500, hold on and enjoy the main upward wave.
If it reaches 94500-96000, at least reduce positions by 30%-50%, and pocket the profits. Greed is the main reason for losing money in a bull market.
For those who want to get in:
No chasing high allowed! Your opportunity is in the pullback support. Only place orders in batches around the 91500-90800 area, and strictly stop loss if it falls below 90800.
If the early morning news is positive and it violently breaks through 96000, it’s better to miss out than to chase during the surge; wait for a pullback to confirm.
Mig's personal opinion: After the rate announcement in the early morning, overall volatility will be small; the volatility will wait for Powell's speech at 3:30. The target is still looking at the 94500-96000 range. If it directly breaks through 96000, it is necessary to chase high. I predict it will rise first and then fall; the risk of chasing high is too great. The support can be seen around the 91500-90000 range; if it breaks down, wait for a pullback to re-enter.
At 3 AM tonight, when the Federal Reserve's decision is announced, I will provide real-time updates in the village, interpreting the core content of Powell's speech, and giving immediate operational strategies. At such critical moments, being a minute faster could mean the difference between heaven and hell.
If you don't know the specific entry and exit points, and for those holding positions, you can follow Mig, who will announce the daily coins and entry points as well as exit timings in the chat room!!
