Every candlestick on the price chart reflects the undercurrents of global capital. Last night, Ethereum surged from $3100 to $3400, and the market's frenzy is not because it heard the footsteps of interest rate cuts, but because it sensed the impending loosening of liquidity gates.
More important than interest rate cuts is the signal of expanding the balance sheet! — Let’s carve this sentence on today’s trading screen. Tonight, Beijing time, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision. But the real eye of the storm is no longer that interest rate cut drama that everyone is watching, but the dry riverbed of liquidity, waiting for the first signal of the gate opening.
Last night's surge in ETH was the market's vote in real money for the significant turning point of the Federal Reserve officially ending balance sheet reduction.
Today's direction: Trade expectations, beware of realization
Directional logic: The market has priced in the step of stopping balance sheet reduction (up last night). Tonight, it will urgently seek the answer to the next question: after stopping, will there be expansion, and if so, when?
Therefore, regardless of whether the Federal Reserve's verbal statements are dovish or hawkish, any hint about the future path of the balance sheet will become the key to igniting market movements. The market's eyes will closely watch keywords like reserve management purchase plans. Any indication that may come earlier than expected (such as before some institutions' forecast of 2026) will be interpreted as a signal of accelerated liquidity arrival, potentially driving risk assets to continue their ascent.
Alert point: As you keenly reminded, be cautious of the script of hawkish statements repeating. If Federal Reserve Chairman Powell emphasizes that the fight against inflation is not over, expresses satisfaction with the liquidity situation, and downplays the necessity of recent balance sheet expansion, then the anticipated buying may face selling pressure from profit-taking.
Short-term strategy: Key positions and survival rules
In the hazy period of the liquidity turning point, the response of prices at key points is more real than any prediction.
Core price level map:
Resistance level: $3400. Last night's high, also a psychological barrier. A valid breakthrough and stabilization will confirm short-term strength and open up upward space.
Strong-weak dividing line: $3280. Current consolidation support. If a quick rebound occurs after a retest of this position, the market structure remains healthy; if it breaks down with increased volume, it means that upward momentum is short-term exhausted, and it will enter adjustment.
Life watershed: $3100. The launch platform for this round of increase, and also the last line of defense for the mid-term bulls. This position must not be lost; once it falls below, the entire trading logic of liquidity improvement will face severe tests.
Long-term view: The direction of the tide has changed
Tonight's Federal Reserve meeting is just one scene in the prologue. For awake investors, a grander narrative is unfolding.
When the Federal Reserve ends its balance sheet reduction, it marks the first clear turning point signal in the liquidity withdrawal cycle that has dominated the global market since 2022. Although the tide will not rise overnight, the direction of the retreat has already changed.
For cryptocurrencies like ETH, the tide of global dollar liquidity is one of the most important macro currents for their valuation. From balance sheet reduction to stopping, and then to future expansion, the incremental funding expectations brought by this chain are a more profound driving force than mere interest rate changes.
Historically, the expansion cycle of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet has a high resonance with the prosperity cycle of global risk assets. This time, the market is cheering for the first turning signal.
Old Luo's perspective:
ETH on the trading screen is hovering around $3320, waiting for a clearer signal. Traders around the world are decoding every word from the Federal Reserve, looking for evidence of when the tide will come.
But for true market observers, the driest riverbed reacts most violently to the first drop of rain. Last night, the market already told us with prices: it believes that rain clouds are gathering. What we need to do now is not to predict the exact number of raindrops, but to confirm whether we are standing in the right place and to prepare the right container for it.
If you are still holding positions and facing liquidation in the cryptocurrency circle, it's time to find a reliable guide. Follow Old Luo to avoid traps and seize the market! Remember: you can't earn money outside of your understanding, but by following Old Luo, you can quickly catch up on your knowledge!#美联储FOMC会议 $ETH
