As soon as the Federal Reserve's rate cut landed, the crypto world staged a textbook-like sell-off. Watching ETH plummet from $3450 to $3200, I knew the familiar script was back.

Expected market sentiment after landing

The market's reaction completely aligns with the classic routine of 'buy the expectation, sell the fact.' Over the past month, the market had priced in the likelihood of this rate cut at about 90%, making the rate cut itself no longer a surprise.

Prices reacted in advance; the moment the shoe dropped became the day for profit-taking. From the market perspective, although ETH had a brief surge after the announcement, it soon faced selling pressure, indicating a severe lack of bullish momentum.

More critically, the focus of the market has shifted. Traders are now more concerned about the Federal Reserve's outlook for interest rates in 2026, as well as whether new uncertainties will emerge in the macro economy.

Analysis of funding and sentiment

The funding side has shown noteworthy differentiation. Just as ETH broke below $3,300, the address of the 1011 insider whale started to increase its position against the trend.

In the past 5 minutes, this whale has accumulated 19,109 ETH, and the total scale of its 5x long position has reached 120,000 ETH, approximately $392 million, with an average entry price of $3,177.

Short-term direction and operational logic

I believe that ETH is very likely to continue testing support downwards in the short term. The logic is based on the following points:

Technically, ETH's daily chart has broken below key moving averages, and the 4-hour level has also fallen below the $3,220 line. The market structure weakens and new support needs to be found.

The macro drive has entered a blank period. The speculation on interest rate cuts has been exhausted, and before the next clear macro catalyst appears (such as new economic data or speeches from Federal Reserve officials), the market lacks a continuous narrative for upward movement.

The whale's accumulation behavior is more of a strategic layout rather than a short-term push signal. Its liquidation price is as low as $2,234, indicating that it can withstand significant volatility, but this does not mean the price will reverse upwards immediately.

Specific operational strategies

Key price level identification

Resistance level: $3,450 (previous high point, strong resistance area)

Turning point: $3,280 (a key position contested multiple times recently; stabilizing here would ease downward pressure)

Support level: $3,100 (short-term psychological and technical support)

Strong support level: $3,064 (recent key defense level, breaking below opens up greater downside potential)

Potential turning point

Although the short-term outlook is bearish, looking further ahead, December may hold hidden opportunities. Multiple long-cycle analyses indicate that December 2025 is a potential key macroeconomic turning point for Ethereum.

Historically, significant lows for Ethereum appear approximately every 42 months, and the current time window points to around December 2025. This cyclical resonance suggests that the low formed this month could potentially become the starting point for an important upward phase.

Additionally, the Ethereum network's Fusaka hard fork upgrade is also scheduled for December, which is a potential positive for the fundamentals.

For medium to long-term positioners, if the price experiences a deep correction in the coming weeks, it may instead be an opportunity to collect low-priced chips for the first quarter of 2026. The continuous buying around $3,000 by institutions has already shown the attractiveness of this price area to 'smart money'.

There are always those who choose to light a torch in the dark. When the ETH price fell below $3,300, that 1011 insider whale did not run away; instead, it illuminated its direction with a purchase order of nearly 20,000 ETH.

Short-term market sentiment is dominated by the inertia of 'selling the fact', but true players have quietly positioned themselves for the next cycle.

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