A player known as the 'Never Give Up Whale' directly dumped over 6 million USD to sweep the spot market near the ETH price of 3115 USD while opening a long position with 20x leverage. On the other side, another well-known whale opened a long position with 20x leverage at an average price of 3,219.15 USD, involving 4986 ETH, with a liquidation price as low as 2347.92 USD.
The price of ETH rebounded from last night's low of 3140 USD to 3250 USD, with a 24-hour decline narrowing to 4.8%. However, the market trading volume did not keep up, raising doubts about the sustainability of this rebound.
Long and short showdown, the dangerous balance of the market
The current market is in a delicate and fragile balance supported by high leverage. The power comparison and potential risks between long and short positions can be analyzed from several key dimensions.
Bull camp: Its confidence is primarily based on macro expectations of a shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Although the market has digested the interest rate cut in December, the futures market still prices in nearly a 40% chance of another rate cut by the Federal Reserve before March next year. This expectation of liquidity easing is the theoretical basis supporting risk assets (including cryptocurrencies).
At the same time, the continuous buying behavior of whales also constitutes a market signal, attracting some funds to follow.
Bear pressure: The pressure comes from multiple aspects. Firstly, the weakness in the technicals. ETH failed to hold key trendline support, and after breaking below $3240, it increased the risk of sliding further to $3150.
Secondly, the weakness of the spot market. Data shows that the spot trading volume on major exchanges decreased by 28% month-on-month in November. More critically, the inflow of stablecoins into exchanges has been halved from $158 billion in August to about $78 billion now, which means potential purchasing power is sharply shrinking.
Finally, and most dangerously, is the systemic risk brought about by high leverage itself. Historical data indicates that similar extreme leverage ratios, like the current ones, typically coincide with times when prices face significant pressure and form local tops.
Today's operation logic: Be wary of false signals, safety first.
Based on the above analysis, the core logic for today's operations is not to chase high, but to wait for direction.
A rebound lacking accompanying trading volume usually indicates insufficient upward momentum, more due to intra-market capital games or short covering. Before key pressure points (like the 3280-3300 area) are effectively broken, any increase should be viewed as an opportunity to reduce or adjust positions, rather than a signal to chase prices.
The blank period of macro news is a double-edged sword. It can either bring the market focus back to the technical side or lead to a dull consolidation due to the lack of new catalysts. After the Federal Reserve provided relatively cautious forward guidance, the market needs time to reassess future liquidity expectations.
Short-term operation strategy: Key points and survival rules.
Core strategy: When the direction is unclear, reduce positions and minimize operations, mainly observing.
Key watershed: $3280. This position is a recent small chip concentration area and an important indicator for judging short-term strength and weakness. If the price can stabilize above $3280 with increased volume, there is a possibility of further probing higher pressure. Conversely, if it encounters resistance at this position and falls back, it is likely to test support downwards again.
Lower support: $3100. This is the low point area explored last night and also a psychological threshold for some aggressive bulls (like that 'never give up whale'). If it effectively breaks down (like a continuous 4-hour closing price below $3100), it may trigger a new round of stop-loss orders, and the price will look for support in the $3000-2950 area.
Upper pressure: $3450. This is a previous platform position and a more important resistance area. Before an effective increase in trading volume, the likelihood of directly attacking and stabilizing this position is low.
My core viewpoint is clear: In the current environment of shrinking trading volume and widespread high leverage, this rebound is weak. The market is testing everyone's discipline with real money—whether to blindly follow emotions and increase bets, or to remain clear-headed and wait for the market to find a clear direction on its own.
If you also agree that opportunities are to be waited for rather than gambled on, follow me. I am Lao Luo, and together we will seek more certain survival rules in a volatile market.#美联储降息 $ETH
