Did you get on the train during that surge last night? This time, it wasn't just a random celebration.
The trigger was very direct—the U.S. just released its October job openings: 7.67 million. You know, the market had previously guessed 7.15 million. What does this gap indicate? The job market isn't as cold as everyone thought, and the economic foundation is stronger than expected.
So traders' minds are racing: since the economy can still hold up, even if the Federal Reserve cuts rates tonight, it might not be so aggressive going forward. Some even start to mumble, could this be the final act of this round of rate cuts?
And what’s the result? Funds started rushing in early, eager to get on board, fearing they might miss this "last opportunity before the good news is realized."
But to be honest, the current sentiment is quite divided. A rate cut itself is certainly a good thing, but the hint of a "hawkish rate cut" leaves people feeling uncertain. So, the market rose first amidst this tension.
How should ordinary people play this? I've always said: before major news comes out, don’t bet on the direction, and definitely don’t use high leverage. The real picture will only be revealed after 3 AM Beijing time.
At that time, pay close attention to two things: every word in Powell's speech and that dot plot—it will tell you how many more rate cuts there will be next year. These two things will determine whether this market movement is an appetizer or the main event.
If you don’t want to feel dizzy amidst the data bombardment, you can keep following in-depth market analysis. Once the decision is made, we can talk about how to view and act in the future.
