As an analyst with 8 years of deep experience in the crypto field, I have seen too many cases of people going bankrupt due to blindly following others. The seemingly 'bargain' strategy of reverse following hides a cruel truth behind it, far more horrifying than you can imagine.
In November 2022, a top influencer in the circle publicly displayed their ETH long position opening records, claiming '8900 is the lifelong bottom,' and tens of thousands of retail investors rushed in. I tracked their position data for 3 days and found that after their first two calls, they quietly closed their positions and left. This time it was clearly the old trick of 'establishing a position first, then calling to attract buyers' — first laying in ambush, then using traffic to push up prices, and finally sneaking out when retail investors take over. Therefore, I decisively opened a high-leverage reverse operation at the same position. Before long, the FTX liquidity crisis erupted, and the ETH price plummeted to around 1070. I took profits and exited at 1200, and my account instantly surged.
However, this profit did not excite me; instead, it sent chills down my spine. Because I know that my profit amount is exactly the loss amount of those blindly following. In the crypto market, 'signals' have never been charity; they are a meticulously designed harvesting game: many so-called 'big shots' do not make money from trading at all, but instead rely on commissions from followers' trades, project kickbacks, or even directly harvesting fans through reverse operations. In April 2023, I once again saw through a blogger's tricks - they ambushed MATIC long positions in advance, then closed positions in three batches over 24 hours, harvesting nearly a thousand followers in that short time.
After years of practical experience, I have summarized a set of core insights for reverse following, helping you avoid 90% of the traps:
1. Establish a 'reverse blacklist' to accurately select harvesting-type bloggers.
The key to reverse following is not 'doing the opposite', but 'finding the right people who do the opposite'. My selection criteria consist of three hard indicators: 1. The blogger has made signals that are contrary to the market three times in a row, and each time has induced 'heavy entry'; 2. After making a signal, they do not disclose stop-loss records, but instead delete posts to cover up mistakes; 3. Frequently switching assets, and each signal is accompanied by 'community hype'. Bloggers that meet these three points are essentially 'traffic harvesters', and their operations done in reverse can increase the win rate to over 60%.
2. Enter the market 15 minutes late to avoid pump traps.
The process of most leveraged trading signals is 'signal - pump - unload', and the entire process does not exceed 10 minutes. I will wait 15 minutes after the blogger publicly shares their position before acting, which allows me to avoid the main force's deliberate pump phase and accurately enter the real market conditions after the main force unloads. This simple time difference can reduce the probability of loss by 40%.
3. Reverse following requires strict stop-loss settings to avoid 'double kill' risks.
Many people think that reverse following is 'a sure win', but that is not the case. If faced with an extreme one-sided market, even harvesting-type bloggers may 'accidentally' guess the correct direction. Not setting a stop-loss at this time will only lead to a 'double kill' by the market. My strategy is: the stop-loss for a single reverse operation should not exceed 3% of the total account funds. Once the stop-loss is triggered, I will exit immediately, never harboring any delusions.
4. Beware of survivor bias and give up the fantasy of 'easy profits'.
I have analyzed trading data from Q4 2022 to Q3 2023, and the apparent win rate of reverse following is only 47%. It seems close to half, but after deducting extreme market conditions where 'both parties are liquidated', the actual effective profit win rate is only 38%. I can make money from this strategy not because of good luck, but because of strict rules that control risk - 23 stop-loss exits have resulted in 1 large profit, and behind this is an extreme restraint on human weaknesses.
The 1,200,000 profit I made is still locked in an offline wallet and is never touched. It is not my 'trophy', but rather a thorn that constantly reminds me: the crypto market is a zero-sum game; every penny you earn must correspond to someone on the other side suffering a loss. The university student who disappeared after the margin trading liquidation last year made me deeply understand: the cruelty of this market lies in its lack of mercy for those who blindly follow trends.
Newbies, please remember: true trading wisdom is never about 'following someone', but about 'understanding who is harvesting whom'. Blindly following is the most dangerous form of gambling; independent judgment is the only way to survive.
