Tensions between Japan and China have escalated again. Japan's Ministry of Defense recently announced that a J-15 fighter jet, which took off from a Chinese naval aircraft carrier, illuminated a Japan Air Self-Defense Force F-15 with radar, raising concerns about the increased risk of military conflict. Against the backdrop of ongoing diplomatic tensions, China has reacted strongly to Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's remarks on Taiwan, further exacerbating bilateral opposition.
Pivot program host Chisa Koshimizu interviews Professor Nahoko Eto of the Faculty of Law at Gakushuin University, an expert in East Asian international politics, to deeply analyze the underlying structure and possible directions of the deterioration of Japan-China relations. Eto pointed out that the current situation is no longer merely an extension of a single diplomatic incident but is characterized by China's desire to reshape its international image, packaging itself as a proponent of international pacifism, strategically utilizing past and present contradictions with Japan. Below are the highlights of the interview video.
China reshapes its self-positioning through international circumstances
Eto believes that since the outbreak of the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022, the global political order has been turbulent, and China is trying to adjust its international positioning. In the past, China was often seen as a developing country, a human rights controversy nation, and a non-democratic regime, but it is now trying to shape itself as a 'victor of World War II,' a 'defender of free trade,' and a 'responsible great power.' Within this narrative framework, Japan, due to its historical invasion of China during World War II and the enhancement of relations with Taiwan, is viewed as the most suitable candidate for China to shape into a 'villain' role. Today's image strategy of China aims to portray itself as an international pacifist and a strong and respected great power capable of taking on the responsibilities of maintaining a new international order.
Is the radar illumination incident a strategy of China's high-level leadership?
Regarding the latest radar illumination incident, Eto believes such actions are unlikely to come directly from the highest levels of the central government, but are very likely to be actions taken by mid-level military personnel or frontline units under pressure from higher-ups in Japan's overall atmosphere, where political conditions allow, or even tacitly endorse strong actions against Japan. Military actors may misjudge the situation and take high-risk provocations. However, she emphasizes that Beijing will still avoid losing control of the situation. Since China has not publicly disclosed this military action and has not made a clear statement on the incident, it reflects, to some extent, its concern that excessive military actions could lead to a chain reaction.
China's concerns: economic 'brake' on the level
Eto points out that although provocative actions in diplomacy and the military have increased, China has shown significant restraint in the economic field, only pressuring symbolic industries like seafood imports while not taking substantial actions against supply chains and Japanese companies. The reasons include China's internal economic weaknesses such as sluggish consumption, continuous decline in real estate, a sluggish job market, and deteriorating local finances.
In this context, foreign investment, technological cooperation, and multinational supply chains are becoming increasingly important to the local economy. If excessive actions are taken against Japanese companies, it could lead to foreign capital withdrawal, causing a secondary harm to the Chinese economy. In addition, recent changes in China's rare earth export policies have made it more cautious about misusing the 'rare earth card,' to avoid accelerating the global establishment of de-China supply chains. Eto points out that China may sometimes make irrational decisions, but they know that excessive pressure on economic issues will only backfire on themselves.
China's public opinion control: ambiguous yet deterrent pressure
In terms of public opinion manipulation, she analyzes that China has traditionally created a chilling effect through 'selective suppression.' If the authorities want to suppress a certain type of discussion, they will deliberately target specific cases, leading others to self-censor. This model also applies to foreign enterprises, keeping them in a state of uncertainty and vigilance. This strategy can create deterrence, but in recent years, China has avoided large-scale actions against Japanese companies, as they are aware that this would bring serious international and economic costs.
Japan-China future relations: unlikely to improve in the short term, impacts expected to continue until next year
Eto believes that Japan-China relations are unlikely to improve in the short term. Japan plans to complete the revision of security documents before 2026, which will involve strengthening self-defense capabilities, a highly sensitive issue for China. It is expected that Beijing will continue to portray this as a disruption of the post-war international order. She estimates that diplomatic backlash may gradually ease in a few months, but overall tensions will last at least until next year.
The next likely key turning point will be the APEC summit to be held in China. If Japan and China can arrange a leaders' meeting during the event, it is expected to be an opportunity to ease tensions, but this opportunity still depends on the progress of security policy discussions.
Japan needs to be wary of strategic exchanges between the US and China
Eto emphasizes that changes in US-China relations will profoundly impact Japan. The unpredictability of Trump's administration's policies raises concerns that the US and China may engage in strategic exchanges in the future, with Japan becoming a bargaining chip that can be used. Similar situations have occurred multiple times in history. Although the US State Department and military have emphasized the importance of strengthening Japan-US cooperation in recent years, decisions at the White House level may still encounter unexpected changes. She warns that Japan needs to avoid a passive imbalance on the geopolitical scale as US-China competition deepens. Eto Namiko believes that the current Japan-China relations are superficially dominated by diplomatic verbal battles and military provocations, but the true driving forces stem from the transformation of the global order, the construction of China's self-image, and the complex structure of intertwined domestic political and economic pressures in Japan.
In this tense situation that affects Asian security and global supply chains, Japan needs to respond simultaneously in diplomacy, economy, and security policy; China must also be wary of reckless actions that could backfire on its own development. She emphasizes that while the risk of escalating conflict cannot be ignored, both sides are also aware of the high costs that excessive escalation would bring. Finding a balance between pressure and restraint becomes key in determining the future direction of the situation.
Note 1. Introduction of Eto Namiko:
Professor at the Faculty of Law, Gakushuin University, and Head of the China Research Group at the Geoeconomic Research Institute, with expertise in East Asian international politics and Japan-China relations. Master's degree from Stanford University, Ph.D. from Keio University. Doctor of Law. Previously worked at the Japan Economic Research Institute (JETRO) and the Center for Regional Studies at the National Institute of Humanities.
This article analyzes the ongoing deterioration of Japan-China relations, with Japanese law professor Eto Namiko explaining the underlying causes and possible developments; first appeared in Chain News ABMedia.