Today's Key Thoughts Edition: Bitcoin Volatility Intensifies Before the Federal Reserve's Decision, The Bull-Bear Showdown is Imminent
Bitcoin is currently fluctuating around $92,400, briefly breaking through $94,000 before pulling back. The market is waiting for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision tomorrow (December 11) to break the current deadlock.
1. Macroeconomic News
Bullish and Bearish Factors Intertwined:
Bullish Factors: The market generally expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points and end balance sheet reduction, with easing expectations supporting risk assets. Bitcoin holds the $90,000 level, indicating some buying support.
Bearish Risks: Beware of the Federal Reserve sending “hawkish” signals leading to “good news fully priced in.” The Bank of Japan may raise interest rates, which could trigger a tightening of global liquidity. Bitcoin spot ETF saw a net outflow of about $1.05 billion last week, with buying pressure weakening. Some investors may take profits at year-end.
2. Technical Analysis
Bitcoin is in a compressed volatility range, with decreasing volatility, about to choose a direction.
Key Resistance: $94,000-$96,000-$98,000 area, especially $94,000 as the dividing line between strength and weakness.
Key Support: Pay attention to the $89,000-$87,500 range, which is an important defense line to maintain the upward trend.
Long-term Short Position Strategy: 10% Position Betting Strategy:
Wait for the price to touch the previous resistance around $96,000 and near $98,000 to set up a long-term short position, focusing on the support around $91,900, mainly referencing around $89,000, with an ultimate target around $78,500 (specific take-profit exit points will be updated in real-time based on the market).
3. Trading Strategy Reference
It is advisable to be cautious and flexible before major events, strictly controlling positions.
Event Betting
· If it stabilizes above $94,000 after the decision, a light position can be taken to chase long, with a target above $96,000 and a stop-loss set below $93,000.
· If it falls below $89,000 after the decision or if the Fed's hawkish stance triggers a plunge, consider shorting, targeting around $87,400 and near $85,000.
Short-term (24-48 hours): The market is completely dominated by the Federal Reserve's decision and Powell's speech, with potential for severe volatility, requiring caution against extreme market conditions.
Medium-term (until year-end): Pay attention to whether ETF funds flow back in. If key support is lost, a deep pullback may occur to the $82,000-$78,000 area.
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.
