At 3 AM, the Federal Reserve will officially announce the interest rate cut in the December FOMC meeting. This monetary policy release, marking the year's end, represents both a potential opportunity driven by liquidity easing for Bitcoin, which is currently fluctuating around $92,000, and a volatility juncture under anticipated speculation. The current CME FedWatch tool shows that the market's expectation probability for a 25 basis point cut has reached as high as 92%, combined with the macro tailwind of rising global M2 liquidity, Bitcoin's 'Santa Claus rally' seems to be on the verge of happening, but Powell's policy guidance, institutional capital movements, and the high-leverage market structure conceal reversal risks.
Core logic: The strong binding code between interest rate cuts and Bitcoin
Bitcoin is referred to by institutions as a “dollar liquidity sensor,” and its core connection with the Fed's interest rate cut lies in risk appetite and fund reallocation: Interest rate cuts will lower the yields of fixed-income assets, reducing the opportunity cost of holding cash, and investors will tend to shift funds towards high-risk, high-return assets like Bitcoin, driving up valuations. Historical data corroborates this logic: After the Fed cut interest rates by 0.25 percentage points in September 2025, the dollar weakened, and digital asset investment products saw an inflow of $1.9 billion in a single month, with Bitcoin funds alone accounting for $977 million; during easing cycles, Bitcoin often outperforms traditional assets like gold and U.S. stocks, with Bitcoin rising 7.4% in a single month after the interest rate cut in September 2024, highlighting its property as a liquidity-sensitive asset.
However, the impact of this interest rate cut is not unidirectional and positive, but rather presents a three-fold characteristic of “early digestion of expectations + differentiation of policy signals + high leverage amplifying volatility.” Unlike the stable safe-haven attributes of gold, Bitcoin embodies both speculative and risk barometer roles, with a sensitivity to policy wording that far exceeds traditional assets, which also determines that its market will be more extreme and reversals will be more rapid.
Previous market conditions: Positive news was realized in advance, but underlying concerns remain hidden
The expectation for this interest rate cut has already fermented in the market, pushing Bitcoin to complete a significant rebound: In mid-October, when the market's expectation for an interest rate cut was less than 40%, Bitcoin briefly retreated to the $80,000 area, testing the support of the 100-week moving average; as New York Fed officials released dovish signals and Trump listed “decisive interest rate cuts” as a core standard for the Fed's duties, expectations for an interest rate cut surged to around 90%. Combined with incremental benefits such as allowing ETF trading, Bitcoin surged violently, with a daily amplitude exceeding $3,500 during U.S. trading hours, briefly touching the crucial level of $94,500.
This “anticipatory” trend means that if this interest rate cut only lands at the benchmark scenario of 25 basis points, lacking additional easing guidance, Bitcoin may face profit-taking pressure after the “good news is realized.” What is more concerning is that current market sentiment is still dominated by “fear,” with institutions and retail investors hesitating; in November, Bitcoin ETFs recorded a single-day outflow of $680 million, and the fund's wait-and-see attitude is evident, laying hidden dangers for the short-term market.
Key divergence: Powell's statement sets short-term direction
The “hawkish-dovish tendency” of the policy statement will become a watershed for Bitcoin's market, with two scenarios dominating the trends after 3 a.m.:
- Hawkish interest rate cut: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points but emphasized the risks of sticky inflation in the statement. Powell reiterated the “data-dependent” principle, and the dot plot shows fewer interest rate cuts in 2026 than the market expects (only 3 times instead of 4). In this case, the market's expectations for aggressive easing will be adjusted, the dollar may rebound, and Bitcoin may retest the $88,000-$90,000 support range, or even drop to the critical level of $86,000. However, the downside is limited: On one hand, the global trend of liquidity easing remains unchanged, with $40.4 billion in cumulative inflows into cryptocurrency investment products since the beginning of the year; on the other hand, speculation about Powell potentially stepping down in early 2026 and a dovish figure succeeding him as Fed chair creates long-term support.
- Dovish interest rate cut: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points while indicating that the easing cycle will continue. Powell mentioned risks of a weak job market (in November, private sector jobs decreased by 32,000), and the dot plot indicates multiple rate cuts in 2026. At this time, Bitcoin may break through the resistance level of $94,500 and attempt to hit the round number of $96,000, initiating the “Santa Claus rally.” Currently, hourly RSI and KDJ indicators are in the overbought zone, with strong demand for short-term technical corrections. Furthermore, upcoming initial unemployment claims, CPI, and other data may still trigger expectations to fluctuate.
Mid-to-long-term outlook: Liquidity dividends and risks coexist
From a mid-to-long-term perspective, if the Fed starts a sustained interest rate cut cycle, the bull market foundation for Bitcoin will be further solidified. The core logic driving its rise has three aspects: First, the outflow effect of funds brought about by global liquidity easing; the low-interest-rate environment will continue to drive capital towards higher-yield assets. Second, the acceleration of institutionalization, with traditional financial giants like BlackRock and Fidelity continuously entering the Bitcoin ETF market, injecting stable funds into the market. Third, under the backdrop of “de-dollarization,” Bitcoin's value as an alternative asset is highlighted, becoming one of the choices to hedge against sovereign credit risk.
But the risks should not be ignored: First, there is regulatory uncertainty; the attitude of the U.S. SEC towards crypto assets remains unclear and could trigger market fluctuations at any time. Second, the market structure's fragility; currently, institutions hold 80% of Bitcoin, and concentrated liquidity leads to amplified volatility, with extreme fluctuations exceeding 10% in a single day becoming the norm. Finally, changes in asset correlation; under systemic risk, Bitcoin may drop in sync with gold and U.S. stocks, temporarily losing its safe-haven attribute. Some institutions are optimistic about the long-term trend, but short-term caution is still emphasized regarding policy signal disturbances.
Investor operation recommendations
In the face of a highly volatile market, the core operation is to “keep an eye on signals and gradually position”: In the short term, avoid being forced to liquidate due to extreme volatility; if Bitcoin stabilizes above $95,000 after an interest rate cut, a small position can be taken to go long, targeting $96,000; if it drops below $88,000, do not blindly catch the falling knife; wait for stabilization signals around $90,000 before considering entry.
From a mid-to-long-term perspective, one can seize opportunities for “buying on dips”: If Bitcoin retreats to the $85,000-$88,000 range due to hawkish guidance, and on-chain capital inflows are significant, one can build positions gradually; at the same time, strict stop-loss measures should be set to keep risks within 5% of account funds. In a market where liquidity easing and risks coexist, rationally responding to volatility and rejecting blind following is key to capturing the benefits of interest rate cuts.#加密市场反弹 #美联储FOMC会议
