#美联储重启降息步伐

The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision and economic outlook summary at 03:00 AM on Thursday. After consecutive rate cuts in September and October, the market widely expects the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to cut rates again by 25 basis points, lowering the target range for the federal funds rate to 3.50%-3.75%.

Due to the government shutdown leading to the absence of key economic data, coupled with rare internal divisions among decision-makers, this meeting presents a complex picture: on one hand, the market is almost certain of a rate cut, while on the other hand, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell may have to adopt a "hawkish rate cut" strategy, signaling a more cautious future policy direction even while cutting rates.

"Powell has warned that a rate cut in December is 'far from a done deal', but a series of recent developments have led to a decisive shift in market expectations. CME's 'FedWatch' tool shows that futures traders estimate the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut to be around 87%. Despite the lack of decisive signals in macro data since October, the decline in inflation expectations makes it easier for even hawkish members to accept another rate cut.

Major Wall Street investment banks are also adjusting their forecasts. Morgan Stanley recently revised its previous stance of 'holding steady', now expecting the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points, in line with the views of JPMorgan and Bank of America. Morgan Stanley strategists stated that their previous judgment about pausing rate cuts might have been "premature", and now they expect Powell to signal that the 'recalibration phase' of monetary policy has been completed, with future actions fully dependent on data, adopting a pattern of decisions made at each meeting.

The Fed's path to rate cuts will be more rugged. Morgan Stanley currently predicts that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points again in January and April, ultimately lowering rates to a terminal range of 3.0%-3.25%. However, Danske Bank believes there is a high probability that the Fed will pause rate cuts in January, as the newly appointed voting members for 2026 have publicly opposed the rate cut decision made in October. In Danske Bank's baseline scenario, the last two 25 basis point rate cuts will occur in March and June.