📉📈【FOMC Interest Rate Decision Outlook｜December 11, 3 AM】

The market stands at a critical turning point: is it 'confirmation' or 'disappointment'?

🕒 FOMC Time

Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision: Beijing Time December 11, 3:00 AM

Powell Press Conference: Around 3:30 AM

1️⃣ Current Market Position: Betting on a dovish rate cut, sentiment is exceedingly high

The past few days' market has already indicated:

The market has priced in almost 100% that **'the Federal Reserve will initiate a rate cut cycle'**

Risk assets have risen in advance (BTC stands at about 92,600, this is the reason)

Strong risk appetite: Tech stocks → Crypto assets → Altcoins rise in a chain

📌 In other words: The market has already 'digested' the 'positive news' in advance.

2️⃣ What if the result is really dovish?

👉 The market may take off directly.

Reason:

The market has already bet on rate cuts

If the Federal Reserve confirms what the market wants to hear

That would be 'expected positives + confidence boost'

Risk assets will welcome accelerated trends

In this case —

Stocks, gold, BTC, ETH, SOL…

All may explode simultaneously.

3️⃣ The biggest risk is not 'not cutting rates', but:

⚠️ 'Dovish rate cut' (Dovish Cut → Hawkish Message)

This is the most dangerous scenario:

The Federal Reserve cuts rates as expected

But Powell speaks very cautiously

Or hints that there won't be a rapid continuation of rate cuts

Or emphasizes that inflation risks still exist

This combination = Positive news from rate cuts turns into disappointing negatives

The market's reaction will be very clear:

Risk assets are 'priced incorrectly'

Leading to rapid sell-offs

Prices will experience severe volatility

📌 This is what the market fears most and is also the situation that can easily trigger violent trends.

4️⃣ You can understand it this way:

Dovish rate cut (confirms market expectations) → Significant rise → Medium-high

Neutral rate cut (as expected but not elaborated) → Rise first then oscillation → Medium

Hawkish rate cut (as expected but tone is tight) → Severe decline → Medium-low but with significant impact

The risk is not the decision itself, but:

👉 Whether the Federal Reserve's attitude aligns with market expectations.