UBCLUB2133

✅zec continues to soar~ Left some capital for the opportunity behind the博后~ Currently, a 1622% profit has been delivered, the strong keep getting stronger~ Looking forward to the completion of target two, continue to take profits in batches and move up the stop loss~

言下之意，以损定仓～

感觉市场还差最后一哆嗦~

❤️There are only two endings
Good things～
Good stories～

✅ Task one has been completed, currently 376% profit has been delivered ~ You can take profit and reduce losses in batches now ~

✅ain is making progress towards the goal. Currently, 300% profit has been delivered. Those who are stable can take a small loss first.

📅 Preview of Major Events Next Week --- Super Bank Week
I. Key Macroeconomic Time Points
December 16 (Tuesday) 21:30
📌 U.S. November Non-Farm Payroll Data
→ Affects the Federal Reserve's expectations for interest rate cuts and assessments of U.S. dollar liquidity
December 17 (Wednesday) 22:05
📌 Federal Reserve Officials' Speeches
→ Market focuses on whether the policy path statements are hawkish
December 18 (Thursday)
📌 U.S. November CPI Data
→ Determines whether the decline in inflation is sustainable, which is the core variable for interest rate expectations
December 19 (Friday)
📌 Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meeting (Crucial)
II. Overview of Super Central Bank Week
Next week will see a series of global monetary policy meetings, including but not limited to: Japan, European Central Bank, Russia, Thailand, the UK, Sweden, Norway, Mexico, Hungary
👉 Multiple countries will announce interest rate decisions simultaneously, significantly amplifying global liquidity fluctuations.
III. Core Risk Focus: Bank of Japan
Market consensus expectation:
December Japan's interest rate hike of 25 basis points, very high probability
Potential impact: Yen interest rates rise, carry trade positions concentrated in unwinding, global risk assets under pressure
👉 If the rate hike materializes, global markets may experience rapid fluctuations or even declines.
IV. Implications for Investors
Short-term: Volatility significantly increases, risks of leverage and chasing gains magnify
Medium-term: If a systemic pullback occurs; for investors with cash and patience, it may instead be a window for repricing and positioning
Next week will be a global liquidity stress test. The Bank of Japan's monetary policy meeting is a key trigger for this round of market volatility.
Risks and opportunities coexist, maintain a good rhythm.

Cryptocurrency Major Events Briefing

1️⃣ SEC Chairman: The U.S. financial market is shifting to "on-chain" operations

Interpretation: U.S. regulators are promoting the digitalization of financial infrastructure, and in the future, on-chain transactions and asset registration will become mainstream. This means that compliant on-chain financial products will receive more support, benefiting innovation in crypto assets.

2️⃣ Do Kwon sentenced to 15 years in prison for the $40 billion collapse of Terra-Luna

Interpretation: The tightening of regulations is evident, reminding the market to highly focus on the safety of projects and the compliance of teams. Investors need to enhance risk control awareness to avoid chasing high-risk projects.

3️⃣ Binance launches the first traditional asset perpetual contract variety XAU (spot gold)

Interpretation: Digital exchanges are further expanding asset categories, and cross-border derivatives are becoming a trend. Investors can participate in gold perpetual contracts on cryptocurrency platforms, increasing asset diversification strategies.

4️⃣ "1011 Insider Giant Whale" increases holdings in BTC and SOL long positions

Position changes:

BTC long position: +958 coins

SOL long position: +100,000 coins

Total position floating profit: >$10 million

✅zec I have mentioned that this is a medium to long-term target, and the second target has been achieved. A 2197% return has been delivered, and we continue to look forward to the third target. Remember to continue taking profits in batches and adjusting losses~

Powell opens the floodgates? Short-end bond purchases trigger a full ignition of risk assets
1) Rate cut as expected
The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25bp, adjusting the rate range to 3.50%–3.75%, marking the third consecutive rate cut and a total of 75bp for the year.
The market had priced this in advance, so the impact is neutral.
2) Clearly dovish stance
The statement weakened the description of "low unemployment rate," emphasizing the slowdown in employment and the rise in the unemployment rate, indicating that the risk assessment is more supportive of employment.
The latest interest rate outlook shows:
2026 median interest rate: 3.4%
2027 median interest rate: 3.1%
This indicates that there is still room for rate cuts in the next two years.
3) The real highlight: Short-end bond purchases bring incremental liquidity
The Federal Reserve will start T-bill purchases from December to ensure ample reserves and stabilize the overnight funding market.
The initial scale is about $4 billion/month
This is a substantial signal of liquidity expansion and is the core driver of the market's rise.
In summary:
The rate cut is not the key; the dovish stance + confirmation of future easing path + technical expansion of the balance sheet are the keys to driving U.S. stocks, gold, and crypto assets to strengthen together. Bullish market confirmed in 2026~

📉📈【FOMC Interest Rate Decision Outlook｜December 11, 3 AM】
The market stands at a critical turning point: is it 'confirmation' or 'disappointment'?
🕒 FOMC Time
Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision: Beijing Time December 11, 3:00 AM
Powell Press Conference: Around 3:30 AM
1️⃣ Current Market Position: Betting on a dovish rate cut, sentiment is exceedingly high
The past few days' market has already indicated:
The market has priced in almost 100% that **'the Federal Reserve will initiate a rate cut cycle'**
Risk assets have risen in advance (BTC stands at about 92,600, this is the reason)
Strong risk appetite: Tech stocks → Crypto assets → Altcoins rise in a chain
📌 In other words: The market has already 'digested' the 'positive news' in advance.
2️⃣ What if the result is really dovish?
👉 The market may take off directly.
Reason:
The market has already bet on rate cuts
If the Federal Reserve confirms what the market wants to hear
That would be 'expected positives + confidence boost'
Risk assets will welcome accelerated trends
In this case —
Stocks, gold, BTC, ETH, SOL…
All may explode simultaneously.
3️⃣ The biggest risk is not 'not cutting rates', but:
⚠️ 'Dovish rate cut' (Dovish Cut → Hawkish Message)
This is the most dangerous scenario:
The Federal Reserve cuts rates as expected
But Powell speaks very cautiously
Or hints that there won't be a rapid continuation of rate cuts
Or emphasizes that inflation risks still exist
This combination = Positive news from rate cuts turns into disappointing negatives
The market's reaction will be very clear:
Risk assets are 'priced incorrectly'
Leading to rapid sell-offs
Prices will experience severe volatility
📌 This is what the market fears most and is also the situation that can easily trigger violent trends.
4️⃣ You can understand it this way:
Dovish rate cut (confirms market expectations) → Significant rise → Medium-high
Neutral rate cut (as expected but not elaborated) → Rise first then oscillation → Medium
Hawkish rate cut (as expected but tone is tight) → Severe decline → Medium-low but with significant impact
The risk is not the decision itself, but:
👉 Whether the Federal Reserve's attitude aligns with market expectations.

📌 December 10 Global Crypto Key Dynamics

1️⃣ Putin Signals: Bitcoin Cannot Be Banned

Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that Bitcoin belongs to the category of global technologies and cannot be completely banned.

2️⃣ White House News: The Federal Reserve Still Has Room for Further Rate Cuts

White House economic advisor Hassett said that the Federal Reserve's monetary easing capacity is still sufficient, and market expectations for future rate cuts are increasing.

3️⃣ Gold Continues to Set New Records, Surpassing $4200/Ounce

Daily increase of 0.23%, setting a historical high, with global risk aversion sentiment further amplified.

4️⃣ BlackRock Takes Action Again, Transferring 272.293 BTC

Total value of approximately $24.58 million, flowing to Coinbase Prime, showing that institutions are still actively allocating.

5️⃣ BMW Completes First On-Chain Programmable Forex Payment

The transaction was assisted by JPMorgan, marking that large multinational companies are accelerating the adoption of on-chain financial infrastructure.

6️⃣ UAE National Security Department States: Bitcoin Will Be One of the Core Pillars of Future Finance

The strategic attitude towards crypto assets in the Middle East continues to turn positive.

7️⃣ Institutional Bitcoin Holdings Rise to 1,080,000 BTC

Glassnode data shows that the accumulation rate of BTC by listed companies and private institutions continues to increase.

8️⃣ Standard Chartered Lowers Bitcoin Year-End Expectation to $100,000

Adjusted from the previous target price, reflecting traditional financial institutions' reassessment of market volatility.

📈 Overall Judgment (Summary)

Institutional Accumulation + Increased National Support + Federal Reserve Maintains Easing Tone, Still Favorable for the Crypto Market in the Medium to Long Term.

In the Short Term,

Gold Setting New Highs = Global Risk Aversion Rising

Federal Reserve's Stance is Dovish, but No Exclusion of a Slowdown

→ The market may enter a "Fluctuating Upward" phase, primarily driven by news.

🔥 Federal Reserve Interest Rate Cut Expectations & Market Tips This Week

The market generally expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 25 basis points this week 📉

However, some trading signals indicate that the pace of future easing may slow down ⚠️

Reasons:

Inflation remains high 🌡️

Lack of new data during the longest government shutdown in U.S. history, with officials divided in opinion 🤔

💡 Money market expectations:

After the rate cut this week, there may be 2 more rate cuts by the end of 2026

Lower than the expected 3 cuts from a week ago

⏰ Key time:

The Federal Reserve meeting this Thursday (03:00 GMT+8) will directly affect market trends

The market may take this opportunity to wash out positions

⚡ Operation Suggestions:

All positions must set profit-taking and stop-loss orders

Remember: Risks and opportunities coexist, the key is how you seize them 💪

When will the second round of retracement and bottoming occur? Recently, the market has been in a sideways range, and there was little volatility over the weekend. If interest rates are cut by 25 basis points this week, it could lead to good news turning into bad news. The focus moving forward will be next week's Japanese yen interest rate hike, which is a potential negative. Once the rate hike occurs, there is a chance to touch recent lows again. Whether those lows will be breached depends on the extent and frequency of the rate hikes. If there is only one hike, it is likely that the extreme bottom range will be established, and then the market will need to digest and consolidate to solidify the bottom. If there are multiple hikes or if the hikes are substantial, caution is needed regarding the possibility of breaching previous lows. Recently, volatility has been significant, and the cost of trial and error in the short term will increase. It is necessary to reduce leverage and positions and pay attention to trading risks. It's better to make trades on both sides rather than gamble on opportunities in the middle. Sometimes what appears to be trading opportunities are actually just market noise. The current market situation can be considered a dead weight; the real direction will become clear after interest rate cut announcements. Live well and remain calm~

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