$ETH — everything is complicated. Detailed analysis — at the link to the post by Khardzh Notary.

Ethereum price is up 6.7% in the past 24 hours and trades near $3,320. The move follows a breakout structure confirmed on December 3, which still points toward $3,710.

But mixed signals now suggest the climb may take longer.

Breakout Structure Holds as a Bullish Crossover Approaches

The Ethereum price continues to move within the same inverse head-and-shoulders breakout setup that formed in late November. The move stayed valid after December 3 because the right-shoulder support at $2,710 held. The structure weakens only if ETH drops under that level.

A key trigger now is the bullish crossover forming between the 20-period EMA (Exponential Moving Average) and the 50-period EMA. An EMA, or Exponential Moving Average, tracks price with extra weight on recent candles.

A bullish crossover usually hints that buyers are gaining strength and momentum may continue in the same direction. That trigger could push the ETH price higher, towards the projected target of $3,710.

Bullish Pattern With Looming Crossover: TradingView

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But this crossover will form only if sellers do not step in. One on-chain metric shows why caution remains.

Rising Paper Profits Create a Profit-Taking Window

Ethereum’s Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) measures the “paper profit” held by all ETH wallets. When NUPL rises, more holders have a reason to sell because they sit on larger unrealized gains.

ETH’s NUPL has now climbed to 0.296, pushing it into the Optimism–Anxiety zone. This is the highest reading since early November.

Paper Profits Rising Again: Glassnode

The last time NUPL reached a similar level — on December 3 — ETH fell about 5.2% within two days as holders booked profits.

A similar setup is visible now. Profitability is rising again while ETH sits near resistance. This increases the chance that some holders may sell before the bullish crossover finalizes. If that happens, the crossover may fail, and momentum could pause even though the breakout structure is still intact. That explains the longer wait time.

Key Ethereum Price Levels: What Opens the Path to $3,710 — and What Breaks It

If the bullish crossover completes and NUPL pressure stays limited, the Ethereum price has a clear upward path:

A 12-hour close above $3,390 is the first signal

The next resistance sits at $3,570

Clearing $3,570 unlocks the full move toward $3,710, the measured 20% projection from the breakout point.

Ethereum Price Analysis: TradingView

If selling grows instead, the structure weakens. ETH remains valid above $2,710, but a move under $2,610 invalidates the setup and points to a deeper pullback.

For now, ETH sits between two forces: a bullish crossover that could push toward $3,710, and rising paper profits that may delay the move. The next few sessions will decide which side leads.