Recently, the atmosphere in the crypto space has been surreal. Open the trading software, and the K-line drops like a roller coaster going off the tracks; scroll through social media, and half the people shout 'the bull market is completely dead', while the other half buy the dip halfway up the mountain and curse. Some even check 30 indicators one by one, only to find they are all 'invalid signals'. Honestly, every time I see this scene, I want to laugh: what you are panicking about is a pullback, but what I am worried about is that you will again send your capital out in a panic!
I am Lao Lin, who has been struggling in the crypto market for 8 years, witnessing the 'panic shadow line' in November 2017, enduring the crash from 69000 to 15000 in 2021, and experiencing a 350% increase after the golden cross in January 2023. I'm not bragging; those who have survived three bull-bear cycles without losing all their money have long discarded the word 'smart' and rely solely on 'foolish methods' to survive and make money. Today, I will share my four survival rules that I’ve kept close to my chest, and those who understand them can at least avoid 80% of the pitfalls!
1. Breaking Misconceptions: Don’t treat indicators as sacred orders; the market is the true boss.
Many beginners immediately cling to indicators, charging in on MACD golden crosses and running on death crosses, only to be repeatedly slapped by the market. I made this mistake early on too; during the turbulent market in 2019, I operated back and forth based on MACD crosses, losing 30% in a month, only to finally realize: indicators are tools, not sacred orders; using them incorrectly is like suicidal trading.
Here, I give everyone my exclusive 'scene judgment method', tested with over 85% win rate: Look at the relationship between the price and moving averages - if the price is steadily moving up along a moving average, with occasional pullbacks that do not break below it, this is a trending market, and indicators are useful; if the price is oscillating between several moving averages like a headless fly, this is a sideways market, and no matter what golden or death crosses you see, they are all false signals. The best operation is to 'lie flat and do nothing'.
Another key point: the zero line is the 'dividing line' of trends. I have seen too many people buy the dip below the zero line upon seeing a golden cross, only to end up buying halfway up the mountain. Remember my words: a golden cross above the zero line is a 'tailwind vehicle', easy and fast; a golden cross below the zero line is at best a 'rebound vehicle', likely to stall halfway, so don’t blindly join the excitement.
2. Practical Tips: 4 Anti-Human Nature Rules to Lock in Profits.
These 4 rules are what I have learned through real money experience, without fancy jargon; ordinary people can use them by following them. The core principle is simple: use discipline to combat greed and fear.
Rule 1: Position Division Method - Split your money into 'spending money' before entering the market.
The most common mistake beginners make is to bet all their funds at once. Winning once makes them overconfident, and losing once makes them despair. My approach is to divide the funds I plan to invest into 10 parts, and only move one part at a time. For example, if you have 10000 yuan, split it into 10 parts of 1000 yuan, and use a maximum of 1000 yuan per entry.
There are rules for increasing positions: only when the price breaks through the moving average and volume increases, holding steady for more than 3 days, should you consider adding a second part; if it doesn’t hold and drops back, directly cut losses and exit, limiting losses to 10%, which is fully manageable. This method may seem 'slow', but it allows you to survive the longest in the market, and only by surviving long can you have the chance to make money.
Rule 2: Moving Average Stop Loss Method - One line determines life and death, never hesitate.
I never use complicated stop-loss strategies; I just focus on one 20-day moving average: if the price is above the line, I hold confidently; once it breaks below, no matter how much I lose that day, I exit immediately. Some people say, 'What if it drops and then comes back up?' I tell you, 9 times out of 10 it continues to drop, and the 1 time it bounces back is luck; there's no need to gamble your capital on luck.
During the major drop in 2022, I managed to preserve 70% of my profits thanks to this line. Many people advised me to 'wait a little longer; it will rebound', but I directly liquidated my position and watched them get trapped to the point of questioning life, which reinforced my belief in this iron rule.
Rule 3: Cycle Resonance Method - Confirm multiple signals before taking action.
A single signal is unreliable; multiple signals must come together to be trustworthy. I usually watch three timeframes: daily, 4-hour, and 1-hour charts. I only enter the market when all three timeframes show bullish signals (like a MACD golden cross, price above the moving average), and volume increases; if any timeframe shows a negative signal, I will wait.
In February 2024, during that wave of market activity, three cycles showed resonance signals simultaneously. I entered the market with 15% of my position and ultimately made a 46% profit. Conversely, if only one cycle shows a good signal while others don’t, even if it looks tempting, don’t touch it; there’s a high chance it’s a trap.
Rule 4: Avoid 'Retail Graveyard' Time Periods - Rest when needed, don’t clash with the market.
The crypto market trades 24 hours, but not all time periods are suitable for trading. I have summarized several 'retail graveyard' time periods: before and after non-farm payroll data is released, Friday evenings from 8 to 10 PM, and on the day major policies are announced. During these times, the market is extremely volatile, and major players easily take advantage of retail traders. I have always stayed on the sidelines, even if I miss opportunities, I won't take risks.
On the contrary, from 1 AM to 3 AM, the market is relatively stable, and the signals are more genuine. I often look for opportunities during this time, and the win rate is much higher compared to other time periods. Remember, investing isn’t about who trades more frequently, but about who survives more wisely.
3. Lastly, let me say something from the heart: those who can laugh until the end are all 'foolish people'.
After spending a long time in the crypto space, I found that those who can truly make money are not the 'smart people' chasing trends or insider information, but those who stick to discipline, not greedy or impatient. I have seen too many people chase this hot trend today and buy the bottom tomorrow, only to lose all their capital; I have also seen people diligently follow my methods, making 30% in three months, and doubling their capital after a year.
Lastly, I ask everyone three questions. Are you brave enough to answer seriously? If I give you 10000 yuan, would you dare to take 3 months, using only 1000 yuan at a time, to practice this method? Would you dare to wait when everyone else is shouting to buy the dip, just because there is no resonance signal? Would you dare to cut losses immediately when the price breaks below the moving average, no matter how painful it is?
If your answer is 'I dare', congratulations, you have already surpassed 90% of retail traders. As long as you persist, you are likely to make money in this market; if your answer is 'I don’t dare', that’s okay, at least you know what your issues are.
I usually deconstruct the market in live streams, sharing the latest signals and operational thoughts, helping everyone avoid traps and find opportunities. Follow me.
